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hawkeye_wx

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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. hawkeye_wx
    00z Euro ticked southeast
  2. hawkeye_wx
    Models are showing little change tonight.
  3. hawkeye_wx
    The GFS had gone to crap for this storm largely because it tried to stretch out and yank eastward the northern part of the western energy, which led to postively-tilted, suppressed nothing. The model is now furiously trying to undo that scenario. Now, instead of the energy getting sheared apart and whisked away, it holds it back and even closes it off over Iowa with the 18z run, which obviously leads to a very different result.
  4. hawkeye_wx
    For several days, the GFS has been hinting at a potential system as we approach mid month. The Euro is finally catching on. This morning's run has a widespread snow-to-mix overrunning event, not unlike the one we experienced a couple weeks ago.
  5. hawkeye_wx
    Yep, total cave job. This Euro run sped up the northern part of the energy and shifted the southern piece a good bit back to the sw. Put those changes together and you pretty much get what the other models are showing.
  6. hawkeye_wx
    12z UK
  7. hawkeye_wx
    Our low temp was in the upper 30s and we're already in the 40s today, so the good snowpack is taking a hit.
  8. hawkeye_wx
    Euro says, "Wtf is the GFS smoking?" Edit: Actually, now that I look back at the GFS, it does spin up a big storm. It's just well east of the Euro.
  9. hawkeye_wx
    12z Euro is less interesting again, more positively-tilted/east/weak.
  10. hawkeye_wx
    12z UK is similar to last night. It has the initial weak wave that drops a bit of light snow up here, then there's a second, stronger wave, then a third good wave for eastern areas
  11. hawkeye_wx
    12z GFS is a big step backward. The northern stream digs a little more again, which grabs the strong western energy and stretches it out and yanks the northern part of it eastward. We end up with a weak, positively-tilted system.
  12. hawkeye_wx
    We are getting a major change tonight from the UK and Euro. They are now trying to hold a lot more energy back to the west, so it is able to spin up a better wave that tracks much farther nw. At the surface an organized "big" storm is not quite there, yet. Both the UK and Euro drop a few inches of snow through Iowa.
  13. hawkeye_wx
    It was expected to snow here as well this evening, but it mostly bypassed Cedar Rapids.
  14. hawkeye_wx
    I'm not excited about this. As the western energy moves into the upper midwest, the northern stream digs down ahead of it and shears it apart.
  15. hawkeye_wx
    Terry Swails blog post this morning about the 1967 tornadoes/blizzard, if you haven't read about this before. https://www.tswails.com/single-post/2020/01/28/GOAT-THE-GREATEST-48-HRS-OF-WEATHER-ALL-TIME
  16. hawkeye_wx
    What the GFS is showing this morning will probably vanish on future runs. It feels like a flukey run. Models are generally just showing a strong cold front sweeping through the midwest. This is the first model run that shows a flattening of the fropa with a nice wave or two riding along the front. I'd have to see more models doing this, and stick with it, before I'd get excited.
  17. hawkeye_wx
    I saw some sun today.
  18. hawkeye_wx
    My January snowfall total is up to 13.9", which makes this the third snowiest of the last thirteen Januarys.
  19. hawkeye_wx
    My final snow total is 3.1". That's makes my combined wave total 6.0". My season snow total has quietly risen to 27.4", only a few inches below the average full season total.
  20. hawkeye_wx
  21. hawkeye_wx
    Another 2.8" here overnight with another decent band moving through now. It is very pretty out there. This entire messy system has worked out pretty well for my area.
  22. hawkeye_wx
    It's looking pretty solid over here. The second wave's defo band seems to be backing plenty far nw to drop a few inches here.
  23. hawkeye_wx
    As usual, I'm going to lean conservative and guess 2" for Cedar Rapids.
  24. hawkeye_wx
    My wave 1 snow total is 2.9". It seemed fairly fluffy last night, but it seemed a bit wetter and heavier while shoveling this morning. My liquid total in the gauge is 0.29", so it's close to 10:1.
  25. hawkeye_wx
    The Chicago area folks won't like the 12z HRRR. It's pretty rainy.
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