hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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Does anyone remember the last time we had a tropical cyclone, at a similar stage as Delta, entering the nw Caribbean with a couple days of prime strengthening ahead of it? It really doesn't happen often. Usually, systems are just organizing in that area.
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Hmm... Tropical Tidbits had an older recon dropsonde report listed. The new pressure is 980 mb if you account for a 17 kt wind.
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Still 984 mb. It should be lower next pass if the convection continues to fire.
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984 mb, wow! I was not expecting that. Frankly, the core convection is a bit meager. The color IR presentation isn't great. However, the visible loop shows it has nice organization. It could take off tonight if it can fire more widespread deep convection over/around the center.
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Nice... that pressure is well below what I thought they'd find.
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The 12z HWRF also continues to show only modest strengthening while Delta is in the Caribbean. One would think it could ramp back up in future runs.
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Morning models disagree about shear/weakening in the northern gulf. The GFS and UK show little if any weakening. The HWRF and Euro show rapid weakening.
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Oddly, the HWRF and HMON have gone much weaker again the last two runs.
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18z HWRF and HMON are still showing rapid deepening in the nw Caribbean. The HWRF drops it from 993 mb to 949 mb in 21 hours, beginning late Monday evening.
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If this system does become a hurricane and threaten the US gulf coast, the water over the northern gulf is no longer the fuel it was when Sally traversed the area. The image is from Ryan Maue on Twitter.
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The HWRF and HMON are really revving it up, to <970 mb, before reaching western Cuba or the Yucatan channel.
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92L has developed a decent circulation. Better convection and a decrease in shear over the 24-36 hours should allow it to organize. The new GFS is more robust, strengthening it to hurricane in the gulf with a landfall on the central gulf coast in a steady/weakening phase.
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We don't see many 980 mb tropical storms. The visible loop sure looks like a hurricane. Another recon was on the way, but there was no way they'd get down there in time so they turned around.
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This system is impressive. It appears to be rapidly strengthening as it is about to move inland.
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New dropsonde says 983 mb.
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This could have been quite a storm with one more day over water.
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The current upper level flow is quite favorable. It's just lacking a core.
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I was just thinking that this is clearly a TD. It'll be interesting to see how quickly this can rev up before reaching the northeast Yucatan coast.
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Some clouds kept our temp in the 40s into the early morning hours. We were able to fall to the mid 30s by morning. The always-colder-than-surrounding-stations Cedar Rapids airport hit 31º.
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I picked up a better-than-expected 0.39" of rain early this afternoon. It had been a couple weeks since it rained, so it was nice to have a day like this again. It was pretty cool, but it wasn't windy and nasty.
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We are getting some rain early this afternoon. It's not much, but it's nice to see some again. I won't have to water the grass seed today. We will not have much of a fall foliage season this year, thanks to the derecho. The trees that were able to remain standing were thrashed and thinned out. The remaining leaves are not in great shape, especially on the west-facing sides of trees.
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The trend is to keep Beta in the 990s, at best, move inland, and fade away. A few models drift a low back over water a bit, but it's very weak.
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Now the GFS touches the coast of Texas, then drifts back out over the gulf where it meanders and fades through day ten.
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1000 mb is the pressure found by recon.
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Recon has found the center a fair bit farther east and north than the NHC 4pm advisory. This could make it more likely it'll come to a halt before reaching the Texas coast. Edit: I just realized there could be an elongation farther southward. Let's see what recon finds. Edit: Nope, that was the center... nothing farther south.
