hawkeye_wx

12z GFS is stronger (low-end cane), throws on the brakes just barely offshore, really rakes the coast of Texas with torrential rain as it drifts north and then northeast along the coast.

When TD22 is upgraded, it will be named Alpha. Wilfred was just used by the system in the eastern tropical Atlantic.

00z UK keeps it farther off the Texas coast, has it becoming a strong hurricane (962 mb and falling) as it heads eastward.

The HWRF and HMON keep it sheared and weak. The euro has a more solid system.

The general theme from the models is a lift north for a couple days, followed by a turn to the west and track to near the Texas coast, followed by a stall and turn back east.

More rain overnight and this morning has boosted my weekly total to 6.12". Much of this rain has soaked into the soil, so the rivers across eastern Iowa have barely risen at all. This is how you end a drought.

The rain just keeps on coming here in eastern Iowa. I've received another 1.21" so far today. My weekly total is up to 5.05".

Assuming we get another inch of rain through Saturday morning, our drought should be finished.

I picked up another 0.63" today, boosting my weekly total to 3.84". Tomorrow looks like another washout.

The 12z Euro has Rene meandering around just north of the MDR, which leads to the new system getting sucked up into the weakness, so no threat to the Caribbean.

12z GFS has a rapidly-strengthening hurricane in the eastern Caribbean in a week. I noticed last night's Euro had the system there, but much weaker.

It had looked like there could be a significant break in the rain today, but models underforecasted this new disturbance lifting northeast across the region. It's not heavy, but it will keep the rain going for much of the day.

My 4-day rain total is 3.21". Models suggest another 1+" through Saturday.

Another cluster of cells this evening boosted my 2-day total to about 2" and my 3-day total to 3".

1.23" here overnight. Over 2 inches fell in some locations.

The top of the sister street where it meets the main avenue. Across the avenue is a dumpy mobile home area. Many of the big, old trees in that area look like the ones in this photo. Many of the crappy homes got ripped up, too.

Looking down the next street... our sister street.

Corner of the street entrance, opposite side. This tree was broken off at the ground and tossed 30 ft. Interesting photo.... all the trees along the right side of the street are still standing while all the trees on the left side were blown down.

A couple houses up the street from me. Corner house at the entrance to my street.

Across the street again, then a couple houses up from there.

Next door neighbor and across the street.

Here are some photos from my neighborhood. The first two are my backyard.

The initial training storms missed me to the northeast (up to 4-5" fell between CR and Dubuque), but the tail of the MCS dropped a solid line of storms through the area. I finished with 1.06" of rain. This may have been the first overnight MCS of the year. This morning's GFS and Canadian have moved to the Rockies cut-off low scenario, which should put the kibosh on the huge rain totals some models have been spitting out. The GFS only has another 1.50" falling here all week. Update: The 12z UK cuts the upper low of over Utah. *sigh*

Ugh. The Euro just flipped all the way back to cutting the upper low off over the Rockies. It never really ejects eastward. In one run it shifts from Missouri to Wyoming. C'mon, man.

Yeah, this run cuts off the upper low just in the right place and it crawls eastward just to the south of Iowa. It could still easily pan out differently, like what the UK is showing (farther south and west), which would not drop nearly as much rain.