hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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82 kt SFMR this pass 968 or 969 mb from the latest dropsonde Despite the continued deepening, Grand Cayman radar still does not show a great eye presentation, and satellite shows a lack of outflow to the east and south.
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Interesting comment from recon... POORLY DEFINED EYE W/RAGGED BANDS ON S SIDE, OPEN N. WEAK RADAR SIGNATURE ~5 MI NE OF FIX (ONLY 2 MI WIDE) INDICATED NEW PSBL LLC DEVELOPING, BUT FL WINDS DID NOT YET SUPPORT THIS FEATURE. I've noticed the eye presentation on radar has degraded, despite the rapid deepening.
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974 mb, continues to rapidly deepen. How can it not, considering the ball of very intense convection parked over the center. Oddly, this plane's extrap pressure data is higher than the actual pressure. It's usually the opposite.
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The latest recon plane just made its first pass through the center, but a new recon plane is already on the way, so there should be a plane in there all night to give us the latest data.
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New recon dropsonde measured about 977 mb, accounting for the wind.
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Does anyone remember the last time we had a tropical cyclone, at a similar stage as Delta, entering the nw Caribbean with a couple days of prime strengthening ahead of it? It really doesn't happen often. Usually, systems are just organizing in that area.
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Hmm... Tropical Tidbits had an older recon dropsonde report listed. The new pressure is 980 mb if you account for a 17 kt wind.
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Still 984 mb. It should be lower next pass if the convection continues to fire.
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984 mb, wow! I was not expecting that. Frankly, the core convection is a bit meager. The color IR presentation isn't great. However, the visible loop shows it has nice organization. It could take off tonight if it can fire more widespread deep convection over/around the center.
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Nice... that pressure is well below what I thought they'd find.
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The 12z HWRF also continues to show only modest strengthening while Delta is in the Caribbean. One would think it could ramp back up in future runs.
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Morning models disagree about shear/weakening in the northern gulf. The GFS and UK show little if any weakening. The HWRF and Euro show rapid weakening.
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Oddly, the HWRF and HMON have gone much weaker again the last two runs.
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18z HWRF and HMON are still showing rapid deepening in the nw Caribbean. The HWRF drops it from 993 mb to 949 mb in 21 hours, beginning late Monday evening.
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If this system does become a hurricane and threaten the US gulf coast, the water over the northern gulf is no longer the fuel it was when Sally traversed the area. The image is from Ryan Maue on Twitter.
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The HWRF and HMON are really revving it up, to <970 mb, before reaching western Cuba or the Yucatan channel.
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92L has developed a decent circulation. Better convection and a decrease in shear over the 24-36 hours should allow it to organize. The new GFS is more robust, strengthening it to hurricane in the gulf with a landfall on the central gulf coast in a steady/weakening phase.
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We don't see many 980 mb tropical storms. The visible loop sure looks like a hurricane. Another recon was on the way, but there was no way they'd get down there in time so they turned around.
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This system is impressive. It appears to be rapidly strengthening as it is about to move inland.
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New dropsonde says 983 mb.
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This could have been quite a storm with one more day over water.
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The current upper level flow is quite favorable. It's just lacking a core.
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I was just thinking that this is clearly a TD. It'll be interesting to see how quickly this can rev up before reaching the northeast Yucatan coast.
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Some clouds kept our temp in the 40s into the early morning hours. We were able to fall to the mid 30s by morning. The always-colder-than-surrounding-stations Cedar Rapids airport hit 31º.
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I picked up a better-than-expected 0.39" of rain early this afternoon. It had been a couple weeks since it rained, so it was nice to have a day like this again. It was pretty cool, but it wasn't windy and nasty.
