hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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Models are starting to put more emphasis on a slop-gyre passing east-west to the south of Bermuda in the extended. Even the GFS is now showing that sloppiness stretching out the nw Caribbean energy.
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Meteorologically, this would be quite a sight.
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The GFS continues to tease snow events for the upper midwest in the 1-2 week period. Last night's Euro had a good one up in Minnesota. At the very least, it appears the garden season will be over.
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I don't like ugliness on weather forums, so I've just stayed out of the Covid thread for the last few months. In a couple months we'll, hopefully, have some snowstorms to keep us busy.
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New recon dropsonde has the pressure up 3 mb to 958 mb.
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966 mb per dropsonde
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For now, the pressure is holding at 968 mb.
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99 kt flight level, 90 kt SFMR this pass in ne quad.
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968 mb is the latest dropsonde pressure. Also, convection is finally starting to fire up the east side of the center, which should lead to steady deepening today.
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I thought Delta would look better by now. Earlier this evening, it appeared it was about to enter a phase in which convection would start pinwheeling around the center, but it has not happened. It has gone back to the firehose look, with only one point of initiation on the west side. The last recon found the pressure still stuck in the 970s and the surface wind (SFMR) at only 70 kt.
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Pressure is still 973 or 974 mb. The eye is 30 nm wide.
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973 mb per the latest dropsonde.
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The mid/upper level flow is much improved from 24 hours ago.
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979 mb per dropsonde
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Latest recon pass... in northeast quad, only 98 kt flight level wind, 67 kt SFMR. This has really come down.
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Pressure is up to about 970 mb.
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The larger eyewall is mostly there. It's just broken on the n/ne side.
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About 2 mb per hour, so that's quite fast for a 24-hr period. I think Wilma dropped something like 10 mb in two hours at one point.
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The plane flew back south of the storm, so they'll make another pass.
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One hour from cat 3 to cat 4..... must be a record.
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954 mb per the dropsonde.
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There's a 118 kt and 132 kt flight level wind on that pass.
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Recon has turned around and is going in for one final pass before leaving.
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955 mb from the dropsonde.
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Yep, 102 kt unflagged.
