hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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HRRR and 3kNAM are so close over here, but the small difference is a big deal. The 3kNAM continues to lift sleet into Cedar Rapids for at least a few hours while snow continues to dump barely north. The HRRR keeps us snow.
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You are correct. It's weaker and loses some of the cooling, leading to more crap precip.
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Euro is nw again. Thermals are really garbage.
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Euro wave #1.
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UK nw again with wave 2. There's solid agreement with the nw track now. The farther-southeast Canadian is the outlier. Of course, this is still four days away... plenty of time to shift around.
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UK continues to tick southeast with wave #1. The question is... is the UK correct or are the sleet models correct?
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The HRRR is pretty to look at, but it's counting on colder thermals keeping the sleet farther south. Other models are easily surging sleet up through east-central Iowa. I'm not going to bet against the warm air aloft. 4-8" seems reasonable for Cedar Rapids. The Friday wave is trending back nw again, but, coming from the gulf, it's too darn warm.
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Euro continues to be quite a bit stronger and nw with wave 2. It doesn't really reach the confluence area until the lakes.
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Euro ticked a hair south again with wave 1. It's pretty much in the middle of the guidance.
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Yeah, as a couple other models fade back southeast, the UK keeps inching nw.
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UK has come in a bit south with wave 1. It was already one of the south models. If you live in southern Iowa, the Canadian and UK say you'll get dumped on while the other models say you'll get mix/rain or even a dry slot.
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The Canadian has shifted well southeast with the Friday system and falls apart when it crosses the Ohio river.
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The NAM still wants to lift the sleet up through Cedar Rapids Tuesday evening... a bit more aggressive than the HRRR.
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00z HRRR at 48 hrs
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Wow, I had no idea it got that warm over by the river. We were held to the low 30s by the snow. I picked up 0.9" of snow, about what was expected and a nice hors d'oeuvres ahead of the bigger snow this week.
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FWIW, the 18z parallel GFS just shifted back eastward(now veers east of Iowa), the first run of any model that has done that.
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All the models are occluding/shearing the low at some point, but differ on when. The opGFS does it before reaching Iowa, the Euro after.
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It's not often we see a winter low track from the nw gulf to Quincy.
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Euro showing a lot of icing north of the low.
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Except the potential problem with wave 2, even over here, is the warm air aloft.
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The UK is now showing a big nw shift with wave 2. The UK continues to be farther south with the first wave as well, so here's the total.
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Parallel GFS is a bit farther west than the op GFS and pulls warm air aloft back into Iowa.
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The west trend with the second wave continues unabated. The 06z Euro and parallel GFS are even west of me now.
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This thing is going to change so much over the next few days. My area could easily get 10 inches or nothing.
