hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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948 mb now
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I was just about to post about today's CR temp. I thought for sure the airport would hit 97º intra-hour, but nope. It was hot, but the dew was tolerable and the wind helped. Plus, the sun fades much earlier in the evening this time of year. The front will sweep through early tomorrow morning and that will be it for summer, at least for a while.
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953 mb, officially, per the latest dropsonde.
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The new recon plane is finally finding solid cat 3 strength... 117 kts flight level, 102 SFMR, extrap pressure 949 mb.
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The Euro has it weakening as it approaches the coast as wind shear increases and dry air is pulled into the circulation. This is way out in time, though, so the details are unknowable.
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The eastern US trough is very strong this run, and does not lift out, which helps to really pull the hurricane north into west coast of Florida.
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It appears the eyewall replacement cycle is progressing well. The new band is beginning to pop on the IR loop.
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The Euro has a weak upper low digging down into the far nw Caribbean, out ahead of this system. As the system begins to develop and gain height it quickly turns northwestward as it feels the upper low.
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Saturday, south of Jamaica, is when the latest Euro begins to ramp up the cyclone. I foresee a lot of low-sleep nights coming up next week as I have to stay awake for one more recon pass or model run.
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2022 Atlantic Hurricane season
hawkeye_wx replied to StormchaserChuck!'s topic in Tropical Headquarters
Not necessarily. Look way out to the east. The Euro is immediately developing the next African wave as soon as it emerges into the Atlantic. The gulf storm could be Ian. -
967 mb per the latest dropsonde.
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2022 Atlantic Hurricane season
hawkeye_wx replied to StormchaserChuck!'s topic in Tropical Headquarters
From a Ryan Maue tweet. The Euro ensemble really likes a gulf storm. -
Fiona is not wasting any time at all.
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A couple storms popped this evening and dropped 0.70" on my yard... a pleasant surprise.
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Scattered very light rain and sprinkles yesterday and overnight added up to a mighty 0.10".
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Pressure is down to 993 mb.
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Pressure is down to 997 mb. We're still waiting for some good convection over the center, but it has tightened up a bit.
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Upper divergence has improved significantly over the last 24 hours. It just needs to tighten up the core. Maybe some good convection tonight will do it.
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The latest recon fix jumped north and is up to 1006 mb, so the core is weak and messy.
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And, just like that, the Euro shows how to get a landfall in Florida. Land interaction keeps Fiona weak and shallow while just enough weak ridging remains in place to the north, then the big northeast US trough digs just far enough east to barely bypass Fiona and not pull it away.
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The Euro is remaining farther south this run, continuing wnw and weak over the islands.
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Earlier today the convection was near the center, leading to the upgrade to TD. Since then, however, the convection is being held in place by shear while the center continues westward.
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My records show quite a few big rain events up through 2015. There was a ten-year stretch when I AVERAGED 8" in June. I remember putting the pump on the patio and bailing out the window wells. There just hasn't been anything like that in recent years, that's all. While I love heavy rain, I certainly don't want water in the basement again. One of these years we'll get a 5+" event and have water issues again.
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Rockford has done well recently. RFD reported 6" over two days in early August and now they get another 5". It has been several years since my last 4" event.
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It is 70º and sunny over here with a gusty north wind.
