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hawkeye_wx

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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. hawkeye_wx
    It's still a week out, but, for the first time, the 06z GFS has joined the Euro in showing a much more amped wave moving into the pacNW, which then leads to a big event for the midwest.
  2. hawkeye_wx
    The Monday night/Tuesday system may end up a bit more interesting than it appeared yesterday. Models had mostly gone south, with both the GFS and Euro showing nothing here. However, the Euro has jumped back north quite a bit and now has 2-3 inches of wet snow through central Iowa. The NAM agrees with the Euro. Other models are still south.
  3. hawkeye_wx
    We managed to reach the low 50s this afternoon thanks to a bit of sunshine.
  4. hawkeye_wx
    We are at least seeing the first tease of the season. The last couple Euro runs (and AI Euro) are the most bullish. The Euro then follows the storm with brutal cold... multiple days remaining below zero.
  5. hawkeye_wx
    Yesterday's rain system dropped 0.81" in my yard.
  6. hawkeye_wx
    Not in our region, but certainly noteworthy.
  7. hawkeye_wx
    After the next week of mild air and light rain, the op Euro finally shows a major pattern change to active and cold...... and it STILL doesn't show a single dang flake of snow through the end of the run. It's unreal how difficult it can be to get snow around here.
  8. hawkeye_wx
    We will be going into the new year without a 1" snow event. We've received 1.5" total from four events... a few tenths here, a few there.
  9. hawkeye_wx
    I finished with 0.85" of rain. Locations around Ottumwa got 2+", which is why the ice was twice as thick down there.
  10. hawkeye_wx
    We lost power for about 40 minutes. Tree branches have a good 1/4" of ice on them. There is up to 3/8" in spots. It's good that the icing is done. We have finally crept above freezing and the precip is diminishing. The worst icing was over southeast Iowa, where as much as 1/2 to 3/4" of ice built up on the trees.
  11. hawkeye_wx
    We got a solid glaze overnight, but it's not a problem for trees so far. The surface is also rough/bumpy due to a little sleet that got mixed in. We should get one more batch of heavier precip before the temp rises above freezing.
  12. hawkeye_wx
    Cedar Rapids hit 60º again today.
  13. hawkeye_wx
    Cedar Rapids hit 60º. Des Moines hit 64º and Ames hit 65º.
  14. hawkeye_wx
    Iowa is way over-performing today. A couple days ago it was supposed to be upper 40s here. This morning it was raised to the low 50s. It is currently 59º. Central Iowa is in the low 60s.
  15. hawkeye_wx
    Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
  16. hawkeye_wx
    The latest models have trended away from a good snow event. Instead, we get a fast zonal to nw flow that shears out any decent energy and suppresses moisture. This morning's Euro hardly has a sprinkle or flake here through ten days.
  17. hawkeye_wx
    I got 0.2" last night after dark when the temp fell below freezing.
  18. hawkeye_wx
    We are getting snow showers, but the flakes are tiny and it's too warm to accumulate.
  19. hawkeye_wx
    I received about 0.60" of rain from this system. It was a pretty big underperformer across the entire area. The model average was at least an inch.
  20. hawkeye_wx
    Tonight's ICON, UK, and Euro have all lost the strongly-digging second wave next week, which means no second storm or snow for Iowa. A second spin-up is delayed until much farther east.
  21. hawkeye_wx
    I saw that the operational Euro got another upgrade a couple days ago. I didn't realize until today that range-extension was a part of it. The longer range for 06z and 18z is pretty nice. The 00z and 12z now going out to 15 days mostly just provides more fantasyland excitement, like the GFS. The day 8-10 maps are already low accuracy.
  22. hawkeye_wx
    The Euro still brings this system back to life in the gulf after a long trek across the Yucatan. Florida gets a solid storm with rain and wind.
  23. hawkeye_wx
    And now the Euro stalls this system on the Honduras coast and never develops it much. 24-48 hours ago this was looking pretty exciting to track, but it has come crashing down from that perspective.
  24. hawkeye_wx
    This system is trending away from being a powerful hurricane over the open Caribbean and toward being a rain maker for Central America. The GFS has abandoned its earlier scenario of a quicker spin-up and stall (or even an eastward track) over the open water. The system is pretty broad and weak this morning, and south of earlier GFS runs. The ICON and AI Euro are showing a scrape of Honduras followed by Sara getting buried deep in the Yucatan.
  25. hawkeye_wx
    The model trend is toward a farther west track. The non-GFS models had already trended to a track with significant Yucatan interaction. Tonight's GFS, while still east of the other models, now also shows a track into the Yucatan. The major difference between the GFS and other models is how quickly the system organizes. The GFS is much more aggressive, exploding the storm by Thursday night. Other models keep it weaker and drift it farther to the west before stalling.
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