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hawkeye_wx

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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. The 12z GFS has Beryl becoming so broad and disorganized that it is only able to get itself together at the very last minute.
  2. So Josh declined to fly to the Grenadines and missed a historic hit, but then he flew to Mexico for weakening junk?
  3. Models are consistently showing that it will take about 36 hours over water for Beryl to reorganize. The environment should become more favorable as Beryl slows and turns north near the Texas coast.
  4. My first solid storm in several weeks dropped a quick 0.35" late this evening.
  5. Dropsonde says about 963 mb, so it's an 11 mb drop since the last recon report several hours ago.
  6. The models are all too far south with the track today. The eye of Beryl is now near the point that is due south of the Isle of Youth and west of Grand Cayman. None of the GFS, Euro, Canadian, ICON, are that far north. And, the Cayman radar shows the wnw track has not stopped.
  7. This evening's heavy rain event was a big bust for the Ames to Cedar Rapids corridor. The line had a break in it that passed directly over me, so I only got 0.38". My daily total is 0.92".
  8. Remnant light to moderate rain from the western Iowa storms dropped 0.48" here this morning. It has been quite a while since we've had a good storm.
  9. Recon is scheduled to be in there in only 2.5 hours from now. It should still be at/near peak. The planes are flying from St. Croix, so it's a very short flight at this point.
  10. Remember the days before the GOES-R satellites, when we got images every 15 minutes with a delay (and a couple times a day there was a 30+ minute break between images), and the old GOES satellites did not even give us any image below the north half of the Caribbean? Now we get a full, beautiful image every minute, in real time. GOES-R has been amazing for hurricane tracking.
  11. Beryl continues to strengthen as it moves out into the Caribbean. The CDO and eye are becoming more circular and crisp. The next recon plane is scheduled to be in the storm at 23:00z.
  12. I don't recall there being a hurricane in this far south location since Ivan in '04. It doesn't happen often. The vast majority of storms that form in the MDR lift northward away from 10N pretty quickly as they organize.
  13. Barbados is very fortunate that Beryl has tracked a good degree farther south than earlier projected.
  14. Beryl is not wasting time tonight. It has developed a nice eyewall and it is about to pop the eye on satellite.
  15. After working all day to moisten up the north side of the core, Beryl has finally managed to wrap the convection initiation point around.
  16. I finished with 1.44" of rain today. I will still finish June ~1.50" below avg, but this was a nice win. Tuesday looks like another chance of good rain.
  17. Yay, this morning's rain event did not crap out. I am approaching an inch, which is very much needed. There is no lightning/thunder, so it's not exciting, but I'll take a gentle soaker.
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