hawkeye_wx
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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx
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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
hawkeye_wx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
The Euro has a storm in the gulf, but there is strong shear -
The new center dropsonde says 943 mb (with 9 kt wind).
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The new recon plane is coming from Houston. It just passed the mouth of the Mississippi river. It should be in the eye in a couple hours.
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The pressure is still 962 mb. Overnight into this morning is when the aggressive hurricane models had Helene bombing, but it didn't happen.
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If Helene is going to jump to the next level, it needs to be able to wrap the deep convection all the way around the center, which it is having trouble doing this morning.
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The current recon plane's final pass found 978-979 mb.
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The center is now past the Yucatan.
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Recon is making one final pass through the center and it has found a solid nw wobble since the last pass.
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The latest dropsonde pressure is still 981 mb, so it has plateaued for now. Radar and satellite show a bit of a dry slot has wrapped up the east and north sides of the core. I think at least a couple models hinted at this happening this morning.
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Solid west shift from the 06z Euro.
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The center took the expected right turn over the last few hours. It does not appear it will interact much with the tip of the Yucatan. The latest extrap pressure is 981 mb.
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It appears Cedar Rapids will officially end up with a trace of rain in September. Models show nothing until at least mid October.
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It seems a new recon plane has taken off from Biloxi and is on its way, so we won't have to wait til morning.
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It says the next recon is scheduled to take off around 4am EDT, so we won't get more data until morning.
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According to recon and satellite, the surface center is about where the blue circle is.
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Recon is finding no wind anywhere close to hurricane force. Also, the surface center is still not even under the convection due to southerly shear.
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The surface center is wobbling around a bit just south of the convection. Shear is certainly lower than this morning, but there is still enough to prevent the convection from wrapping over/around the center.
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The newest recon pass actually found the center jogged a bit southwest since the last fix, so the surface center is not under that blob of convection, but just off the south edge. The dropsonde says 990 mb with 17 kt wind.
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It appears the second recon plane, which took off from Biloxi a couple hours ago, encountered a problem while flying through the Yucatan Channel, so they had to end the flight and turn back.
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Center dropsonde says 991 mb.
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Ten minutes later, the buoy just dropped another full mb, to 992.9. The ball of convection over the center is doing some good work.
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What's the deal with the GFS's depiction of Helene's vorticity, for the next two days, looking like a wobbly planet with a bunch of moons rotating around it? The other models all show one solid ball of vorticity.
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It appears a decent band of convection has begun to build just north and east of the surface center. The center is currently drifting nnw.
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Helene currently has an interesting presentation. It has a well-defined center. There is convection up-shear and down-shear, but nothing near the center.
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The HAFS models are both now much weaker over the eastern gulf, likely mostly due to Helene being de-cored over the Yucatan. A few hours over land is not a big deal, but twelve certainly is.
