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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. The next few days are obviously pretty important for the future of this system. If it can organize into a TD or TS before the islands, then a strong western Caribbean cane is a good bet. If it just races into the Caribbean as a sloppy wave, then its future is a bit less certain.
  2. I picked up another 1.80" of rain overnight. Parts of the local area received 3-4". A Cocorahs observer a few miles to my north received 4.36". This is at least four, maybe five times someone in the Cedar Rapids metro received 3-5" from an event this summer. It has certainly been fun to follow. The Cedar River is still expected to crest around 24 ft on Monday. A few pockets from central to northeast Iowa received 3-5+ inches overnight, but the mid/upper Cedar basin managed to avoid it.
  3. One Cocorahs observer near Decorah has received 38 inches of rain since June 1st.
  4. Well, the WPC just removed the heavy rain previously forecasted for tonight over northern Iowa. If that's what they are going by, the crest could be lowered again. There should be some heavy rain this weekend, but at least all the models now keep the front progressive.
  5. I was thinking the Cedar River crest would eventually be lowered, as often seems to happen. A couple weeks ago the Turkey River crest in northeast Iowa was overestimated by five feet. Instead, the crest at Cedar Rapids was just UPPED by 5 feet to 24 feet! That would be another bad flood for the city.
  6. All GFS runs for the past few days, and sporadic runs for days before that, have at least hinted at a wave traversing the MDR way down at 10 degrees or lower, which then organizes as it reaches the southern islands/south american coast. The euro is showing something a bit farther north. It's at least something to watch.
  7. For Monday afternoon/evening, DVN is thinking north and east of the Quad Cities.
  8. I picked up another 1.57" of rain last night. A half inch of that fell in about five minutes. The rain shield quickly collapsed once passing Cedar Rapids, so Iowa City got nothing at all. My September total is up to 5.37".
  9. It appears 93L finally attempted to organize near the east-central Florida coast.
  10. It looked like it may have plateaued yesterday, but, wow, it has turned it up another gear over the last twelve hours. We just don't see many like this.
  11. At 83/62, it's feeling pretty warm again, especially between wind gusts. The last couple days have overperformed.
  12. Thanks for the interesting facts. It's certainly a bit of an anomalous period we're in.
  13. Meranti just accomplished this in only 24 hours. It's always very impressive to watch cyclones explode like this.
  14. CR officially hit 49 this morning. The in-town stations bottomed out in the low 50s. It's a gorgeous weekend. Models no longer show any real chill this week, but an extended stretch of pleasant weather is still on track.
  15. You know it's bad when it's mid September and, other than 94L becoming a modest tropical storm and curving out to sea, the GFS shows nothing at all in the entire run, not even a fantasy-land recurving storm. I think plenty of tropical geeks were expecting that, with the ending el nino, this season could really pick up in September and October. At least for now, the necessary conditions just aren't there. Perhaps late September into October will bring a change.
  16. Meranti has prime conditions now and is showing it. This one is going to be a real beauty over open water the next few days.
  17. I think it's fair to say the nwpac basin is a bit more moist than the Atlantic.
  18. Picked up another 0.55" of rain today to boost my September total to about 3.5". Part of northern Iowa got hit hard again this morning. The area around Decorah has been crushed in recent weeks. I'm really looking forward to the cooler, breezy weather this weekend.
  19. The NHC has upped this system's chance of development to 40%, although they still don't expect much from it due to an unfavorable upper wind pattern. The water vapor loop shows upper lows all over, so it's tough for these disturbances to find the small areas of less hostile upper wind in between them.
  20. Yes. Its current state is pretty similar to 99L/Hermine at this same point moving through the Florida Strait. It clearly has a closed surface low and has some convection struggling to hang on to the center in the face of fire-hose shear. The upper pattern, like with 99L/Hermine, shows an upper low over the western gulf, a narrow ridge over the eastern gulf down into the nw Caribbean, and a nasty upper low to the northeast that is digging down over the system. At this point, however, the models are doing nothing with it as it heads into the gulf.
  21. The awesome summer season of 2016 strikes again. Two more rounds of heavy rain moved through the Cedar Rapids area last night. I received another two inches of rain, which boosted my 24 hour total to 2.91". The north side of the city got bullseyed with 3.5-4.6". This is the third time this summer I've received at least 2.9" from an event. Some part of the Cedar Rapids metro area has been hit with 3-4+ inches at least four times.
  22. Philip Klotzbach tweeted this today... "0 TC (>=34 kt) formations in Atlantic so far this month. Only once since 2000 has 9/1-9/6 had 0 TC formations (2013)"
  23. Today is the warmest in a while here.... low 90s with dew stuck at 75 all day. As cyclone said, the wind helps. The extreme humidity earlier in summer came with little if any breeze.
  24. This morning's GFS and Euro are showing the first big chill diving south from Canada mid next week. The GFS actually has a freeze down to near La Crosse, with upper 30s down into eastern Iowa, and highs only in the mid 60s. That'll be quite a change if it holds.
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