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hawkeye_wx

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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. 00z ukmet has the center drifting westward into southern NC Thursday night.
  2. The SFMR data during the first pass was not very impressive. Even the ne quad only showed 105 kts.
  3. Yeah, pretty much all of them are stalling and weakening Florence somewhere along or just off the coast of NC or SC.
  4. This is crazy. Now the euro still has Florence over water Saturday night. Update: Euro finally moves the center inland, south of Charleston, after midnight Saturday night.
  5. 12z Euro going to Wilmington, but now it stalls the system before the center even crosses the coast.
  6. Interestingly, neither the HMON nor HWRF are showing any additional strengthening. They simply keep it in a steady state.
  7. Sheesh... GFS-FV3 is now taking the remnant low due west into Georgia.
  8. GFS-FV3 goes south, now hits the Myrtle Beach/NC border area. Last night's 00z run had Florence over eastern NC, two runs later it's in central SC.
  9. The latest NWS forecast for Cedar Rapids says "Sunny" every single day for the next week. It has to be pretty rare to not even have a single "Partly sunny" in there somewhere.
  10. First recon pass shows Florence several mb(951) and perhaps 10 mph weaker. I figured even a bit less wind, but recon found 112 kt surface wind in the southeast quad. IR loop shows the new, larger eyewall beginning to take over. There is always some stubborn inner eyewall remnant convection that takes a while to disappear.
  11. The first 40s of the season are expected in my area tonight.
  12. This morning's GFS and Euro are sending this system across the Caribbean. Past runs have been turning it north.
  13. I picked up 1.36" today. A band through Iowa City received 3+". The Quad Cities area ended up in the dry hole this time. My rainfall total since Saturday is 4.82". I think that'll be enough for a while.
  14. Considering the time of year and how very wet it is over here, I doubt we'll see 90 again.
  15. This was pretty darn close to my house, 0.7 miles to my nw. I guess it's a good thing this cell veered north a bit as it approached.
  16. None of that Iowa precip is from Gordon. However, the euro is still trying to stall a band of heavy rain from southern Iowa to the Quad Cities area Wednesday into Thursday.
  17. The upper midwest/great lakes ridging keeps strengthening on the models and is squashing the tropical remants... disappointing. It appears whatever we can get from Wednesday's frontal passage may be it for the week.... a major change from a few days ago.
  18. Tonight's GFS shifted south again with Gordon's remnants and the Canadian shifted well south.
  19. A strong cell passed over the nw side of Cedar Rapids this evening. It barely missed me as it veered a bit more to the north as it approached, but about a mile north of my house there are reports of a bit of tree and power line damage.
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