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hawkeye_wx

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Everything posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. hawkeye_wx
    Yeah, each recon plane is finding a lower max wind than the last. Florence appears to be a large cat 1.
  2. hawkeye_wx
    On the latest nw to se pass through the storm, recon only found max FLIGHT level wind of 85 kts. The core wind has really cratered. A bit of shear advecting dry air into the core, when the core is already having ERC issues, can really do some damage.
  3. hawkeye_wx
    Recon just made their first pass through the core. Even in the stronger northeast quad, the top flight level wind was only 101 kts and the top SFMR wind was only 79 kts. The wind field has become large, but the core wind has really come down quite a bit. Update: Central pressure is 956 mb.
  4. hawkeye_wx
    Models are now tightly clustered, showing a very slow landfall around Cape Fear/Wilmington. The IR loop shows Florence's core continuing to slowly deteriorate. The eye is now losing its shape.
  5. hawkeye_wx
    While outflow is quite good to the west, north, and east, it appears to have become increasingly restricted to the south today. The 12z GFS suggests the best upper flow may be Thursday.
  6. hawkeye_wx
    Second recon pass found the pressure back up a few mb to about 947 mb.
  7. hawkeye_wx
    Several eps members are turning Florence sw quite far from the coast and maintain the strength as it turns back to the coast. What a tricky system.
  8. hawkeye_wx
    Over the last several hours, Florence has gradually been losing that "undercut-by-a-bit-of-shear" look.
  9. hawkeye_wx
  10. hawkeye_wx
    00z ukmet has the center drifting westward into southern NC Thursday night.
  11. hawkeye_wx
    The SFMR data during the first pass was not very impressive. Even the ne quad only showed 105 kts.
  12. hawkeye_wx
    Yeah, pretty much all of them are stalling and weakening Florence somewhere along or just off the coast of NC or SC.
  13. hawkeye_wx
  14. hawkeye_wx
    This is crazy. Now the euro still has Florence over water Saturday night. Update: Euro finally moves the center inland, south of Charleston, after midnight Saturday night.
  15. hawkeye_wx
    12z Euro going to Wilmington, but now it stalls the system before the center even crosses the coast.
  16. hawkeye_wx
    Interestingly, neither the HMON nor HWRF are showing any additional strengthening. They simply keep it in a steady state.
  17. hawkeye_wx
    Sheesh... GFS-FV3 is now taking the remnant low due west into Georgia.
  18. hawkeye_wx
    GFS-FV3 goes south, now hits the Myrtle Beach/NC border area. Last night's 00z run had Florence over eastern NC, two runs later it's in central SC.
  19. hawkeye_wx
    12z UK went back north a bit, to the Morehead area.
  20. hawkeye_wx
    The latest NWS forecast for Cedar Rapids says "Sunny" every single day for the next week. It has to be pretty rare to not even have a single "Partly sunny" in there somewhere.
  21. hawkeye_wx
    First recon pass shows Florence several mb(951) and perhaps 10 mph weaker. I figured even a bit less wind, but recon found 112 kt surface wind in the southeast quad. IR loop shows the new, larger eyewall beginning to take over. There is always some stubborn inner eyewall remnant convection that takes a while to disappear.
  22. hawkeye_wx
    00z UKMET
  23. hawkeye_wx
    The first 40s of the season are expected in my area tonight.
  24. hawkeye_wx
    This morning's GFS and Euro are sending this system across the Caribbean. Past runs have been turning it north.
  25. hawkeye_wx
    I picked up 1.36" today. A band through Iowa City received 3+". The Quad Cities area ended up in the dry hole this time. My rainfall total since Saturday is 4.82". I think that'll be enough for a while.
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