Met1985
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Everything posted by Met1985
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Well big changes on the 12z GFS. There is no second storm cutoff. What happens is the primary trough cuts off and this turns into a pretty significant upslope event. The cutoff storm never materializes this run.
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Lol thats always the case it seems like. Cold air will be around and we just need the moisture or vice versa.
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Yeah the 6z gfs hammers our area especially the southern facing mountains.
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Yeah a beautiful cold morning here with a low of 20.
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I wouldn't say rock solid just yet. This cutoff is big and can go one way or the other. It is nice we will have a cold source but as you see we have had a lot of jumps here and there in modeling just as the euro has done. Ill be paying close attention to all the models but especially the GFS. One big issue I could see is that cutoff getting stuck west of us... Still its nice to track something.
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The 0z gfs is deeper with the trough on the 30s so it brings us a better chance for upslope snow and much colder air. I still would like to get this under 5 days. After that the strange massive cutoff is derper and colder and further east which is good. This would be a significant snowfall verbatim for a large portion of the area for this time of the year. Still that is 10 days out. Proceed with extreme caution. I like seeing this on the GFS though.
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Also we are down to 32 degrees already. Beautiful evening.
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Im running the pessimistic train for now. The Euro is just not what it used to be in the mid range. Also the telleconnections today looked worst that previous days. But we are 7 to 9 days out like Ward has stated.
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As suspected big changes on the euro today which are not good for snow and cold lovers.
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33 here this morning. Just some showers that came through overnight.
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December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.
Met1985 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Really until the GFS gets on board with such a deep trough im very skeptical of it. Like you have noted we have seen this same song and dance before. Lets get under 5 days then I might fully buy in. -
I dont trust either one until the GFS jumps in board with that deep of a trough. It looks great but the euro has been playing catchup to the GFS in the middle range now for quite some time. We will see as we get closer to next weekend. Hey us in Haywood should get together one morning for breakfast and talk some weather.
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Yeah its going to be a cold rain here. They are calling for 34 and rain here... Hopefully you will see something.
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Looks like we are still marching towards some sort of a pattern change after Thanksgiving. It could be significant or transient. Im not sure yet but we might have something to track at least in the short to medium range.
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Looks like we may start to see a pattern change after Thanksgiving to something we might can work with better. Its still very early and things can dissolve over a few runs.
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Crazy. Looks like inversion city for those at the top.
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Yeah we are dropping off fast. Down to 31 here already.
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Yeah that is a possibility. Man I love these microclimates we have and micro weather from place to place around here.
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Man we radiate beautifully here. My P&C forecast has me for a low of 33 but I am already at 36 this late afternoon.
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Was 20 here. Beautiful day.
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Finally a cool day! Current temp is 45 with a low of 29.
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Flood watch has been hoisted up for the mountains and parts surrounding. For tonight through Thursday. Going to be just a bit wet.
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Yep. No hammer last year or really the year before.
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Climatology speaking we are seeing new norms. Its hard to speak of past patterns when we are seeing new ones emerge yearly.
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Yeah the past several mornings we have really radiated well. Had another heavy frost and freeze this morning. Crazy how the inversion work in these atmospheric rivers.
