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Met1985

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Everything posted by Met1985

  1. Met1985
    12z euro looks great for upslope snow. This will be a great trajectory from the NW with plenty of cold air flooding in behind the low coming in.
  2. Met1985
    Yeah this has turned more into a backside upslope snow more than anything. I know the border counties will be excited to see a nice 3 to 6 plus inches at this point in the season. But we might see some corrections to the south or further to the east... Hey at least we are tracking something.
  3. Met1985
    The 12z gfs looks great for the border counties. This is all going to be a backside storm now. The low runs up into Ohio and just kind of stalls for a bit allowing lots of energy to move through on the trough right into the mountains. This is not going to be a synoptic storm unless something drastic changes which I don't see happening. This looks like the best setup for upslope snow we've seen this season.
  4. Met1985
    The low from the west coast wave travels from TN to Ohio so everything in front of the low is rainfall for everyone. Then the other piece of energy rotates down to crank up the flow snow. This looks really good for the border counties but don't worry it'll change tomorrow morning...
  5. Met1985
    Instead of a bowling ball it's like a legitimate trough digging down with the piece of energy.
  6. Met1985
    This is a weird solution. The wave kind of just stays open across the whole country but then there is a potent piece of energy from the north that drops down behind the wave...
  7. Met1985
    Im going to go through the run just for posterity sake but im trashing this run....
  8. Met1985
    There is a lot of dynamics that have changed in just 6 hours on the gfs. When they update the damn thing they set the model way back... Absolutely shit consistency....
  9. Met1985
    Just looking at the wave coming in from the west it's further north and it looks less impressive. To me this run is going to be warmer and more north...
  10. Met1985
    If you don't like the looks of the weeklies or trust them then look at the ensembles currently. All three of the major long range models have a positive PNA and a negative epo pattern setting up around the 20th of this month. To me that's some pretty good signs but to other the damn sky is falling everyday.... I posted this in the main thread to try to inject something other than doom and gloom but to me this is great news especially it being with the ensembles.
  11. Met1985
    If you don't like the looks of the weeklies or trust them then look at the ensembles currently. All three of the major long range models have a positive PNA and a negative epo pattern setting up around the 20th of this month. To me that's some pretty good signs but to others the damn sky is falling everyday....
  12. Met1985
    Yeah no kidding. We've not really seen any consistency once again from the models...
  13. Met1985
    The 18z gefs so far supports a much colder solution than past solutions. Also the snow mean wet up a good bit over a larger portion of the mountains.
  14. Met1985
    Yeah you see how the system stays in tact and much further south. The low actually drops south right across us.
  15. Met1985
    Yeah big time totals especially talking about this year so far.
  16. Met1985
    Verbatim a big time snow for the border counties on this run. Even 3 inches at the airport.
  17. Met1985
    Roughly rain and a squall line blows through then wrap around moisture hammers the border counties.
  18. Met1985
    The system on the 18z is further south and is much better organized.
  19. Met1985
    I think the foothills still have a chance with a thread the needle type setup.
  20. Met1985
    I need to remember that I live in the mountains lol. The main thread and I don't jive
  21. Met1985
    Better hope it goes into cod then. I still think we get chances into February. At the very least the pattern will repeat itself in my opinion.
  22. Met1985
    Yeah just getting our source of cold back to cold would be a big win. We do a lot better when Canada is in the freezer. We don't need to be in the freezer but just have the cold spoke through to keep our chances for winter weather above average. I think we actually have a lot going for us in the upcoming weeks. Anything before that is just a bonus in my opinion.
  23. Met1985
    Got to hold onto something. I think February could surprise a lot of people. I know typically February's during Nina are torches but I think this year will not be an all out torch. We've seen things change pretty fast this year also.
  24. Met1985
    Yeah I just posted about the same thing in our forum. Great stuff and at least something to track even if it fails lol...but
  25. Met1985
    The euro Weeklies have been progressively getting us colder from late this month through February. The pattern change is on the ensembles now. About 2 weeks out with intermittent cold fronts. With the mjo and the disruption of the pv anything can go. There are signs of the NAO going negative also but as we all know that doesn't mean we will get a storm...
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