Met1985

Ward if you have anything to add or MOTO then chime in. I kind of just rambled a bit.

You know with these type of events and the topography of our landscape it is really hard to nail down these localized type events. For the most part I do like you are talking about. Take a mean average of the models and go from there. The problem is that the NWF can do wonders enhancing the flow and really dumping in certain areas especially all the micro climates we have and throw in drastic changes in elevation in a short range then it makes things that much harder. Thats why the NWS kind of broad brushes us with there forecast. Its just too complex to nail down just one site at a time especially with specific wind trajectories, which can make the difference from me getting 4 inches to just 1 inch. Upslope snow here is one that is ever changing during the event and can be a real pain to forecast not to mention looking at the layers of the atmosphere to figure out just how much moisture is there to really get the flow going or not going.

Not a bad forecast at all. Not impressed by the 18z NAM run but everything looks to be game on from here on out.

Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham- Northern Jackson- Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, and Sylva 250 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO NOON EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2-4 inches, with peaks above 5000 feet seeing up to 6-8 inches. * WHERE...Mountains of western North Carolina. * WHEN...From noon Friday to noon EST Saturday.

I might be wrong but we are practically into March which makes a big difference and also the ground is very warm for the season we are in. With the combined rain, warmth, and getting into pre spring things work against us a lot at this time of the year.

Surprisingly the euro looks good for tomorrow into Saturday.

Yeah the 32km. Im not worried though just like last night. The signal was there and it delivered.

I wasnt impressed with the 12Z NAM but the GFS was much more robust with things this weekend. There is a strong signal there and thats all that matters currently.

Yep I agree Joe. This is my number one event of the winter by far.

Yeah this was more of a classic NWFS so you kind of get shadowed out that way. Its amazing the difference in trajectory makes across the county. I guarantee you will hit double digits by April.

We are still getting hammered this morning. It hasn't let up at all. Roads are a mess, the winds will cut right through you. Good times!

The NAM has done the best job inside 84 hours absolutely. It may be a little too over amped here and there but I think this season it has outperformed every other model so far.

Did you see the graph Griteater posted during the last event? It is now 0 for 6. The GFS has actually done the best but just barely. The models have been not so good this season with snow events.

The EURO again stunk things up.

Looking ahead into Tomorrow and Saturday morning there is still a strong signal for upslope snow on both the GFS and the NAM.

Talk about whiteout conditions! I have neatly 3 inches of snow and we are still getting hammered with a temp of 20 degrees. We already have more snow on the ground than we did last week.

It is absolutely hammering this morning. This is classic upslope snow finally!

Moderate to heavy snow this morning. Hatd to tell how much because of the wind just whipping everything around but this has been our best rates of the season as Joe mentioned

Yeah up stream looks really really good.

Yeah it is ripping tonight especially with the wind.

Snowing big ol fat flakes on Crabtree at a moderate clip.

Rain is starting to change to snow here. Above 4500 feet the mountains are white in Haywood.

The wind is ripping also now.

The radar is actually feeling in nicely now. Its nowcast time anyways. I think we do very well. I like my call earlier.

I will say that the radar doesn't impress me currently.