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Met1985

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Everything posted by Met1985

  1. Met1985
    Yeah great runs this morning.
  2. Met1985
    That track should be great for CAD which you should do very well in but there is always a chance for mixing at your elevation. Also no amount of reassurance is going to make things better until it actually starts. You've asked about Morganton on every storm thread. You may want to take a break from looking at the models.
  3. Met1985
    Yeah Haywoods climo is complex from community to community or mountain to mountain but everyone in the country should get theres. Youll have the moisture coming from the south then youll have the NW flow setup after the storm pulls away.
  4. Met1985
    Yeah again the NAM go from heavy heavy snow to sleet back to snow... Im not buying it.
  5. Met1985
    Yeah for that area that is a great storm. Take it and run...
  6. Met1985
    Yeah all systems go at this point. Sitting at a cold 24 degrees and ready for this thing to pop off.
  7. Met1985
    Yeah I think you'll get that easy. I wouldn't worry at all about getting that. It's going to be a wild ride.
  8. Met1985
    I think you may have mixing issues possibly but at this point its a nowcast situation.
  9. Met1985
    Yeah and the rule of thumb if you are outside the mountains there is always an issue with mixing.
  10. Met1985
    GFS looks on point also this morning. I really don't see much mixing issues for the mountains at all. Not saying GSP is wrong but I just don't see it.
  11. Met1985
    Looks like you could get anywhere from 5 to 10 inches of snow. There is a possibility of some mixing which would cut into totals.
  12. Met1985
    The overnight Euro once again was just steady as a rock
  13. Met1985
    Well it's basically go time now. Ill look at the morning models but that's about it. Prepare for everything, expect the modest, and hope for the maximum. Get some rest gents because tomorrow is going to be fireworks.
  14. Met1985
    GFS is just rock steady guys. Looks great.
  15. Met1985
    The GFS is really hammering the mountains. Very heavy snow breaking out around hour 30 and especially around hour 36... Probably some thundersnow.
  16. Met1985
    The NAM looks odd. Too much jumping around with the low run to run in my opinion...
  17. Met1985
    Don't post. I'd step away until tomorrow morning from the models or just wait until the GFS and Euro run.
  18. Met1985
    Yeah we don't live nor die by one model run. The top dog models have been stellar these past several days. Hold steady gents. There is a thing as too much model watching. You'll make yourself go crazy.
  19. Met1985
    I don't really believe there will be a changeover to sleet or freezing rain in the mountains at the height of the precipitation. Call me a weenie but it just doesn't look right to me.
  20. Met1985
    Temp down to 26. Ground temps ain't going to be a problem.
  21. Met1985
    Yep just what I alluded to. I've seen these bands in the past give an extra 4 to 8 inches that wasn't even forecast.
  22. Met1985
    Also we are seeing a better setup of NW flow behind the storm with bitter cold temps flowing in. Don't be surprised to see warnings kept up long for the border counties...
  23. Met1985
    One thing that seems off about some of the model runs is that it shows heavy snow to heavy freezing rain from one frame to another back to heavy snow. To me that is off and that is telling me there is some feedback issues with the surface to precipitation outputs. Not that im worried but I think this is a flaw in the models with this system....
  24. Met1985
    Meh we will just see how things work out. Im not too worried at all. Just interesting that's all. These storms have a mind of there own.
  25. Met1985
    NWS only looking at 5 to 11 inches for around my area but im not worried. Shoot ill take a few inches and be good
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