Chicago WX

6z Euro went east too. Waving the white flag on this one. Good luck to the peeps in Indiana and Michigan. Hope it over performs.

Yeah, no idea. 0z models looked really good, but everything at 6z went east. HRRR and RAP are bleeding east with every run. Kinda stupid this close in. Has shades of Feb 2016, but shittier thermals. Think my final call is 0-6". We'll hope for the best of course.

LOT just pulled the trigger on a Warning for here. 4-8” with locally higher, and gusts in excess of 45 mph. The 2-3” per hour and thunder snow parts would be pretty sexy. 838 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM CST FRIDAY...* WHAT, Heavy wet snow accumulations, intense snow rates, strongnortheast winds, low visibility, and dangerous travel conditionsexpected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches expectedwith locally higher amounts. In addition, northeast winds willgust in excess of 45 mph.* WHERE, Portions of east central and northeast Illinois andnorthwest Indiana.* WHEN, From noon to 10 PM CST Friday.* IMPACTS, Travel will become difficult and dangerous, includingduring the Friday afternoon and evening commute. Thecombination of heavy, wet snow accumulations on trees and strongnortheasterly winds may lead to downed tree limbs and localizedpower outages.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS, Snow rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour andthundersnow may occur within a narrow but intense band of snow.This will cripple travel conditions including during theafternoon and evening commute.

Jan 1979?

3km is ridiculous. Looping the 1-hour 10:1 snow maps, it has 3.9” here for one frame. I mean I’d love to see it, but not planning to move to a LES belt yet.

Take it to the bank

Yeah. March 1998. Lightning and thunder and all of it with that storm. You can read the AFD and forecast on the Iowa State site from that storm. Positive bust indeed.

Good luck. We’re all counting on you. Still no idea what to expect here. Truly.

Feb 14-16, 2021 had the storm start off snowing with temps below zero. Marginal my ass. But recency bias always prevails around here.

Preview of update after tonight's 0z NAM above.

This is a clown show. I guess MBY being on the line of various model solutions, I've noticed the shifts more, but come on...

RAP is always amped way northwest at this range. Same with the HRRR usually. Wouldn’t put any trust in it until like 12 hours out. Just my opinion of course.

That’s f*cking brutal

NAM has 10” for KMCI. GFS has them smoking cirrus.

RGEM a trash model, but this depiction is believable. Airmass is garbage. Look at most models, areas to the west that miss out are sitting in the mid 40's on Friday. It's all dynamic cooling for those that see any snow. And even then, temps are like 32-34. It's probably going to be a much more narrow snow band than being shown. Of course for who...who knows.

White flag time. Euro and NAM teaming up. Deadly combo. Gonna be a good one for CID, MSN, MKE, and GRB. The usual suspects. Probably not enough time for MSP to reel this one in, but who knows. I can’t wait until we go suppression depression in mid March. Enough of the f*cking rain.

9.9” on the season here, but point stands. Awful winter. Alas, we’re cooked here with this system. Just another 34 and heavy rain incoming. Terrible, terrible, terrible…

6z NAM is one for the books. 23" in 6 hours in Iowa. I mean, come on. We're still a ways away from verification, but a little credit to the GFS so far. It's been closer to what's being modeled than the other models. Certainly not perfect though. Euro has been junk again. From the southern outlier to now the northern one (sans the worthless NAM). Alas, I'm all set on cold rainers for awhile, so hoping for a whiff south at this point. Go Ukie and Canadian.

These are all for entertainment purposes of course, but individual GEFS total snow accumulations. Good number of big dogs in various locales. #16 is my pick to click.

12z EPS north. Mean total QPF of 1.00" makes it close to IKK. Hmmm Lots of sub 980 lows in there. The 957 just to the west of LAF though…

Non-event for here. At least it won't be another rainer. GFS/GEFS versus the world. We know how that goes. Though, 6z EPS bumped north, but the same head fake happened with yesterdays 18z run too. Northern goal posts are probably a STL to IND on northeast line for something measurable, but smart money is further south. Looks good for the Ohio crew ultimately.

Never had hope here. Unless you're like Hoosier and rode the 48 hour HRRR and RAP. Tomorrow's quick torch looks like a non-event too. What a miserable system on the cold/wet side.

1983-84 is their #1. 1982-83 was good there (74.4"), but ranks #13. Their top 10, BTW... 98.6" in 1983-84 95.0" in 1981-82 88.9" in 1950-51 86.6" in 2010-11 84.9" in 1916-17 84.1" in 1991-92 81.3" in 1961-62 79.0" in 1951-52 78.4" in 1966-67 78.3" in 2017-18 77.1" in 2018-19

True. But seems the models usually underplay temps when you're on (close to) the line. LAF went the other way. Bad beat for them.