Amped

I'm never looking at the GFS again, until the 276hr blizzard shows up on tomorrow's 18z run.

That was a good 75mile shift in the wrong direction.

Not too great so far.

Sorry my geography of that area is off.

Thats a flip the bus solution. Richmond, Philly, NYC, Boston get 10". We get .5"

Ill take a crack at it. I think its based on having a zonal flow vs an amped up flow. Zonal flows don't generate as much precip and latent heat across the gulf coast states, so they don't build heights off the east coast, hence not as much time to trend north. A couple other issues I can think of that cause south trends. 1. Northern stream kickers, which cause troffs forming in the ms valley to become positively tilted and swept offshore before they can develop. 2. Energy cuts off over the southwest US or Baja instead of ejecting with the troff in the rockies. This happened a few times in 2022. The result is either no storm or one that doesn't organize until way too late. 3. The retrograding ridge from January 2021. That was a unique one.

The 1/2018 bomb cyclone was a similar setup (except for NC). NYC and Boston got about 10" from that one.

No southern stream to pull up gulf moisture like 2010. No northern stream to tug the low north like January 2000. The 500mb low doesn't track over us like the PD1. We go home empty handed.

Starting to lose confidence of major snow for the metros. Yeah maybe a decent event for NC, DelMarva and Cape Cod. DC, Baltimore,Philly and NYC metros are probably getting the finger. The solution from Sunday night that had 2 feet in Harrisburg and 4 feet in Garrett County is definitely not coming back.

Thats an impressive shallow warm core 22mb pressure drop over like 50 miles.

500mb low track over SC is responsible for a lot of that. We need to bring it north.

And its well northwest at 72.

Hr 60 looks further northwest. Closed over Northern lake Michigan

We just need the gfs to trend west by the same amount and we got it

I love how the closed 500mb low dissappears over Ontario, only to reform over southern Michigan 24 hrs later. Thanks for making the setup unnecessarily complicated.

Trending in the right direction, but we still got a lot of work cut out for us. LFG

Eps improved although I'd like to see a few members near Ocean City like the gefs have.

Yes it tries to back in off the ocean, about as Miller A as you can get.

Neither does any model. This is one of the least predictable setups you could possibly have in an east coast winter storm.

Icon isn't any better. It extends further west, but the energy stays strung out instead of forming a closed low.

96 and 2016 both trended north as we moved closer in. In 2016 Euro was way too low with totals in the I81 and I78 corridors. This is unusually low predictability, so that may cancel out modeling improvements since 2016.

Its pretty much the same as 00z and not as good as 18z, but yes ots better than 6z.

The gfs, aigfs and icon trends are. The cmc, uknet ,and euro trends are not.

Takes almost 24 hours to get from Raleigh to DC

Perfect position. Freeze the troff axis over indiana.