Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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The sun is so overrated.
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Hopefully not. Don't need 2 weekends in a row ruined. Hopefully the gfs is overdone withe the wind. -
I'm surprised they didn't go with subtropical. Looking at phase space diagrams there's is a pretty shallow warm core and doesn't have much symmetry.
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Exactly my thinking. Hard to capture a storm 150 miles from Bermuda and hook it back into New England. It needs to track much closer to the Carolinas.
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GFS already has more ridging to the NE of Lee this run. It will probably end up further west than 18z.
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The wind field has really expanded. Hurricane force winds now extend out 60 to 80 NM from the center.
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Appearance has really improved the last few hours. Could be seeing RI 2.0.
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12z Euro has a similar track to the GFS and CMC except its 6 to 12hrs slower with landfall.
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Why track Lee when you can track the 336hr gfs storm.
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Just about to post Seeing 918mb on TT at 51hrs down from 949mb at 42hrs
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155kt SFMR, also looks like the aircraft got jolted by turbulence at around that time.
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Based on the IR the weakening has stopped at this point and the structure is improving again. Something weird is going on if the pressure is still rising fast.
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The west side of the storm appears to have expanded again the last few hours. It's weakened enough that it's got plenty of room to RI again.
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This could end up being like Typhoon Mawar back in May which fell apart for a day and then rapidly strengthened back to a super Typhoon.
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Last hour you mean. It's been keeping the steady 5-6mb /hrs pace since 11am
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Sfmr probably overdone, but still safely a cat 5 now.
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That eps member in NJ ain't verifying.
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So about a 47mb pressure drop in 9 hrs assuming it was 983 at 11am.
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The hafs did show that ring signature though.
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Another hour maybe to get to the center.
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Even NHC mentioned the ADT constraints this time in the discussion. There have been 6 hours if Raw T numbers over 6 now with a current reading of 6.8.
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30mb pressure drop since the last advisory. That could be conservative for all we know.
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The eye has improved a lot in the last hour, kind of reminds me of Dorian undergoing RI. They could probably skip cat 3 on the next advisory and go straight to 4.
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Seems Idiala had a much harder time clearing out the eye.
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The Hurricane models show it strengthening very little until tomorrow afternoon when convection wraps around the north side, then it's bombs away, especially overnight tomorrow.
