Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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18Z GFS with another ROFL run.
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Seems like most models show the jackpot Central PA, Upstate NY and NNE. Typical Inland runner, miss for I95.
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EURO is slower than 00z. Monster blocking over Ontario is even stronger.
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Estimating the 144 and 168 low positions on google earth I'm getting a distance about 36 miles.
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Was close, before the low stalled over ocean city for 18hrs. Central PA Demolished.
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Euro is close for the NW Crew.. It's south of 12z.
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GFS issue in a nutshell. Look at the pacific wave digging off the California coast. GFS is way east of the Euro and every other model. It uses that system to create some sort of a Fugiwara effect that traps the 500mb low in the northern plains.
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18z GFS even less 500mb energy ejecting. I didn't know a Dakotas cutoff low in December was a thing
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KU storm on the 23-24 that gets everyones flights canceled. That would be funny to watch.
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Euro looks somewhat similar to the cmc. Not an outlier.
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GFS having some dispersion issues.
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00z gfs supports that idea. CMC is pretty similar. This is a nasty setup in a unique pattern. Wouldn't be surprised if it extended east into GA also. -
Hopefully not a repeat of last December.
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That'll put a big dent in it t the very least.
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Hopefully we'll get a big one. Seems like we settled for small to moderate overhyped storms a lot the past few years.
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One of the ugliest looking Hurricanes you'll see make landfall. But I guess it's November so What'd you expect.
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986mb on the dropsonde not much wind at the surface.
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GFS is well west of 18Z also. Trend is towards a faster capture and northward acceleration. GFS still hits us with a lot of rain, but only cause a piece of the low hands back over the carolinas. This is suspect given the trend the last few runs.
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00z ICOn brings it way west over western PA. Almost a Francis track, would be more of a tornado threat than a flood threat if it verified.
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12Z GFS shows a ridiculous bounce in the track. 23.5N to 29N then back down to 26N. I expect that will be less pronounced.
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Glad it's died down now. This was one of the most impressive outbreaks of 2022. Probably a lot in the EF2-EF4 range.
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997mb with 57kts at the surface on the latest pass. Banding around the core looks organized. It's go time.
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Center jumped north on the latest pass to where that northern convective blob just popped up.
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Center still on the north end of the convection, but at least there is convection. Probably will help it in the long run if it can avoid interaction with Honduras. Hopefully the 18z GFS is wrong keeping it a weak TS.
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90% chance per NHC 2pm , now appears as if it will develop. There is a lot of spread in the intensity guidance, as one would expect with a small storm. Currently disorganized with multiple centers, it will probably consolidate near the centroid some time tonight or tomorrow. [img]https://i.imgur.com/t0GhtpX.png[/img]
