ncforecaster89

The most difficult aspect of such a project I’m encountering, or struggling with, relates to how best to compensate for the large disparities in snowfall totals between coastal cities and those more into the interior localities. This is especially true as most within the general public are naturally most concerned with what occurs in their own back yard, quite literally. What one might consider a “major” event at the coast could be quite different to another further inland…which is why I’m looking to devise a scale more refined than say, NESIS.

I guess I should clarify that I’m attempting to devise a scale (1-5) that I would personally use/reference to highlight my own forecasting expectations (from a historical perspective) for a given prospective winter storm. In other words, if I’m forecasting the prospect of a “major” winter storm for the East Coast, I want to be assured that it justifiably fits within a specific criterion, e.g., a category 3 might correspond to a projected snowfall of 18-24”. Unlike with tropical systems, I don’t have multiple decades of experience either forecasting or researching snowfall totals in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. As such, I have been spending much of my off-season free-time researching the snowfall climatology for the aforementioned regions. It’s a highly time-consuming and exhaustive process, but I’m most concerned with accuracy above all else in these type of endeavors. All that said, my initial post herein was meant to solicit feedback and opinions from those who are far more experienced and knowledgeable by virtue of actually living in the regions whereby I’m working to devise the aforesaid scale.

Hi Everyone! Hope you all had a wonderful Holiday period and a good start to the new year. Hoping that the late January period might produce a significant winter storm. That aside, I wanted to ask about your own thoughts on how you might classify each respective winter storm event based on snowfall totals over a widespread geographical area (minimum of 4-6”)? Here’s my own best submission. Winter Storm Event Classification: Cat 1…….4-8”……….Impactful Cat 2…….6-12”……..Moderate Cat 3……12-18”……..Major Cat 4……18-24”…….Extreme Cat 5……24+”……….Historic Thoughts?

I’m trying to devise a general East Coast snowstorm scale (1-5) that best fits the associated descriptors corresponding to widespread equivalent snowfall. The fact that SNE has a much greater propensity for major events as compared to the mid-Atlantic region makes it difficult. Might be best to separate them, regionally.

Guessing I could use “Extreme” as a descriptor for Cat 4 and reserve “Historic” for the Cat 5 designation.

Hi Everyone! Hope you all had a wonderful Holiday period and a good start to the new year. Hope the late January period produces an opportunity to blizzard chase in your neck of the woods. Been almost three years at this point. That aside, I wanted to ask about your own thoughts on how you might classify each respective winter storm event based on snowfall totals over a widespread geographical area (minimum of 4-6”)? Winter Storm Event Classification: Cat 1…….4-8”……….Impactful Cat 2…….6-12”……..Moderate Cat 3……12-18”……..Major Cat 4……18-24”…….Historic Cat 5……24+”……….Generational

Hi Roger! Hope you’re doing well. 25/12/6 https://x.com/tbrite89/status/1797020748181086679

That’s amazing that you have experienced, firsthand, the vast majority of the greatest seasons of snowfall in the Philadelphia region. Thank you for the kind words as well.

Only if it ultimately leads to a “happy ending!”

Hi Everyone, I’m in the exhaustive and tedious process of compiling and tabulating historical/climatological “snowfall” data for numerous U.S. eastern cities. This is the first one I’ve completed thus far, and thought you might find it as interesting as I do, myself. Here’s to hoping you can add to the following listing of the “top ten greatest individual snowstorms” before this particular season comes to a conclusion. 1) Philadelphia, PA: A) Latest 30 year seasonal snowfall average: 1994-2023: 23.0” (689.1”) Average seasonal snowfall for full period of record: 1885-2023: 22.8” (3163.4”) C) Top ten snowiest seasons: 2009-2010: 78.7” 2013-2014: 68.0” 1995-1996: 65.5” 1898-1899: 55.4” 1977-1978: 54.9” 1960-1961: 49.1” 2002-2003: 46.3” 1917-1918: 44.9” 1966-1967: 44.3” 1981-1982: 43.9” D) Top five least snowiest seasons: 1972-1973: Trace 2022-2023: 0.3” 2019-2020: 0.3” 1997-1998: 0.8” 1949-1950: 2.0” E) Top ten greatest individual snowstorms: 1. 31.0” (Jan. 6-8, 1996) 2. 28.5” (Feb. 5-6, 2010) 3. 23.2” (Dec. 19-20, 2009) 4. 22.4” (Jan. 23-24, 2016) 5. 21.2” (Feb. 11-12, 1983) 6. 21.0” (Dec. 25-26, 1909) 7. 19.4” (April 3-4, 1915) 8. 18.9” (Feb. 12-14, 1899) 9. 18.7” (Feb. 16-17, 2003) 10. 16.7” (Jan. 22-24, 1935)

No doubt I’m going to have to go back through each individual year to verify the accuracy of the data I compiled. Thank you so much for catching those inaccuracies. I shouldn’t have relied on second-hand sources. Simply trusted the data…as they had already compiled the yearly totals for virtually every observing site in the nation. Thereby, saving myself a tremendous amount of time. I verified their totals for my home city (Wilmington, NC) and they matched perfectly. With that, I wrongly assumed the rest of the data for the other respective cities were entirely accurate as well.

Whoa! That’s a HUGE difference in totals. I relied entirely on the validity of the stats compiled at this particular website: https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/philadelphia/most-yearly-snow Not sure where they got their numbers as they appear to be vastly inaccurate.

Hi Fozz, Here are the specific seasonal snowfall totals….during moderate El Niño episodes….for the two respective cities. Comparatively, the years of 1912 and 1914 stand out whereby the snowfall received in Philadelphia far exceeded the amounts recorded in Baltimore. Otherwise, they’re pretty close, overall. Philadelphia, PA: 2010: 1.5 67.3 1987: 1.2 28.2 1969: 1.1 27.9 1966:1.4 46.2 1964: 1.1 27.5 1914: 1.1 94.1 1912: 1.4. 73.9 365.1” (52.2”) Baltimore, MD: 2010: 1.5 58.1 1987: 1.2 41.7 1969: 1.1 23.3 1966: 1.4 53.2 1964: 1.1 42.9 1914: 1.1 26.0 1912: 1.4 27.8 1906: 1.3 19.5 1905: 1.1 27.6 320.1” (35.6”)

Hi everyone! Thought I’d simply share some of the statistical research I’ve been conducting most recently…examining the correlation between El Niño and seasonal snowfall in the Eastern U.S. Here’s the link to the post showing how each of the 5 selected Mid-Atlantic cities all saw a VERY significant decrease in seasonal snowfall during strong El Niño episodes. https://x.com/tbrite89/status/1751700478864265580?s=20 On the flip side, a few of the largest snowstorms occurred during a strong El Niño season such as 2016 and 1983. In essence, strong El Niño seasons are generally boom or bust and highly reliant on a KU event to achieve the climatological average.

Hi everyone! I pop in here occasionally whenever I’m visiting my wife’s parents and her family in Lancaster…usually around Christmas. That aside, I simply wanted to convey my great appreciation for your posts and respective first-hand updates (ground truth), so I can keep abreast on what they are experiencing there, as well. I had told them to expect 3-5”…with the potential for 6”…two days ago, and definitely hoping that verifies. If I’m not mistaken, it requires about those amounts to do good sledding. If that projection falls short, they’re going to be extremely disappointed. Feeling pretty good about it, right now, though. Hope it’s an over-performer for each of you. Thanks again, Tony

Sharing some of the extensive research I’ve conducted recently regarding hurricane strikes on the U.S. mainland…for the past 150 years. Didn’t go any further back due to the likelihood of missed hurricane landfalls prior to 1877.

Hi GaWx, Greatly appreciate the time and effort involved in such research. Although correct on your synopsis and the increased historical probability for a June TC/H strike on the mainland U.S. during EL Nino seasons, I’d be remiss if I didn’t note that many of the seasons you listed weren’t an El Nino at the ASO tri-monthly. Those years being 1865, 1880, 1887, 1913, 1929, 1939, 1958, and 1968. That’s a very important distinction as the ASO value has shown the best correlation with effects on NATL basin TC activity and is generally used in such analysis, as a result. The main reason being attributed to the way that the atmosphere behaves as it transitions to a stronger +ENSO event through the Fall and early winter. Here is a list of all El Nino seasons (1851-2022) defined as above (with corresponding ASO value): 1852: 0.5 1855: 0.5 1864: 0.6 1877: 2.2 1884: 0.6 1885: 0.8 1888: 1.3 1896: 1.2 1899: 0.8 1900: 0.5 1902: 1.6 1904: 0.6 1905: 1.4 1914: 0.8 1918: 0.8 1923: 0.7 1925: 0.7 1930: 1.1 1940: 0.8 1941: 0.9 1951: 1.0 1953: 0.8 1957: 1.3 1963: 1.2 1965: 1.9 1969: 0.8 1972: 1.6 1976: 0.6 1977: 0.6 1982: 1.6 1986: 0.7 1987: 1.6 1991: 0.6 1994: 0.6 1997: 2.1 2002: 1.0 2004: 0.7 2006: 0.5 2009: 0.7 2015: 2.2 2018: 0.5

Roger, CSU updated their forecast to 15/7/3.

13/5/2. Edit: Just noticed two others posted those numbers before me. Consequently, I’m modifying it to: 13/6/2

Given the option to amend my earlier forecast, I’m simply going to add one additional hurricane…as I’ve been wavering between 8 and 9, since my original post). 19/9/4

19/8/4

Although the general perception of many are that we are trending towards warmer and less snowy winters, I’m confident you will see a change to cooler and more wintry precipitation (similar to the 1980s) once the AMO switches to the cool phase.

Interestingly, that was also the case for the March 1-2, 1980 winter storm that delivered blizzard conditions to the coastlines of NC and southern VA. In it, Durham recorded 15”, while Raleigh received a total accumulation of 11.1”. Ironically, it is the winter storm event that I’ve been currently researching. Once completed, I will provide greater details regarding this historic event for the eastern parts of NC and southern VA.

The next system I want to discuss was an historical winter storm (and blizzard for many areas) that delivered record snowfall accumulations, and was followed by one of the most severe cold waves the Deep South has ever endured! January 22-25, 1940 Blizzard: During the late evening hours of 1/22/1940, an area of low pressure began bringing heavy snowfall to eastern portions of Texas. Over the subsequent 60 hours, it continued its trek eastward across the Southeast U.S., before ultimately moving NE offshore of the SE coastline. In doing so, it delivered record snowfall totals to 38 separate counties, from E TX to VA…that still stand to this very day! The northern and central parts of Alabama were battered by a terrific blizzard, which set the state record for snowfall accumulation of 22” in the small town of Reform. Likewise, this historic winter storm/blizzard remains the storm of record for the cities of Atlanta, GA (8.3”), Athens, GA (9.8”), Natchez, MS (9.5”), and Richmond, VA (21.6”). Some localities in the Atlanta suburbs actually saw amounts in excess of 10”. Although it was a generational weather event for the majority of the Southeastern states, the absolute brunt of its effects were felt in the southern and central portions of Virginia. There, the exceptionally heavy snowfall rates, strong winds, and very low temperatures combined to produce blinding white-out conditions and a tremendous blizzard! Peak wind gusts were recorded at 62 mph and sustained gale-force winds were widespread across this entire region…leading to wind chill values of well below zero in many locations. The hardest hit area was centered on Farmville, VA…where two feet of snow and drifts upwards of 6 feet were observed! Bitter Artic air was already in place preceding this epic winter storm and had set the stage for the extraordinary blizzard conditions that followed. In its aftermath, a reinforcing blast of cold, Artic air spilled down into these same localities…which even brought sub-freezing temperatures all the way down to Miami, FL! The following low temperatures were recorded as a result: Miami, FL: 28° * Tallahassee, FL: 15° Alexandria, LA: 8° Houston, TX: 5° * (Hobby AP) Natchez, MS: 4° Atlanta, GA: 4° Birmingham, AL: 1° Anderson, SC: 0° Dallas, TX: 0° * Calhoun Falls, SC: -2° * Hartwell, GA: -5° * Port Gibson, MS: -5° * Forest, MS: -5° * Henderson, NC: -8° * St. Joseph, LA: -8° * Salisbury, NC: -11° * Richmond, VA: -12° * Brevard, NC: -15° Farmville, VA: -16° * Blairsville, GA: -16° * *Current ‘all-time’ record lows Many rivers and streams were frozen solid throughout the Deep South, as the historic cold wave lasted for virtually the entire month of January 1940. Consequently, the period of 1/18 through 1/31, 1940 remains the lowest two-week mean average temperature ever observed in Birmingham, AL (22.5°). In all, the combination of record-setting snowfall totals, severe blizzard conditions, and extreme cold temperatures make the late January blizzard of 1940 one of the greatest (if not the greatest) winter storms to ever lay siege to the Southeast region of the United States! Snowfall Totals: Virginia: Randolph 5 NNE: 25.0” (County record) Kenbridge: 25.0” (County record) Farmville 2 N: 24.0” (County record) Bremo Bluff: 23.0” (County record) Columbia 2 SSE: 23.0” (County record) Walkerton 2 NW: 22.3” (County record) Richmond: 21.6” (County record) Danville: 20.0” Chatham: 20.0” Powhatan: 19.5” (County record) Tappahannock: 18.0” (County record) Crozier: 18.0” Appomattox: 16.0” Dalhgrens Weapons Lab: 15.3” (County record) Williamsburg 2 NW: 15.0” (County record) Hopewell: 14.3” Emporia 1 WNW: 14.2” (County record) Burkes Garden: 13.0” Lynchburg: 11.0” Pennington Gap: 10.5” Lexington: 10.1” Hot Springs: 9.0” Roanoke: 9.0” Whytheville 1 S: 9.0” Martinsville Flt: 7.5” Rocky Mount: 7.5” Pedlar Dam: 7.0” Blacksburg: 6.6” Bueno Vista: 6.0” Norfolk: 5.8” Alabama: Reform: 22.0” (State record) Gorgas: 18.0” (County record) Cullman (St. Bernard): 14.2” (County record) Boaz: 14.0” (County record) Valley Head: 14.0” Fayette: 14.0” Ethelsville: 14.0” Fort Payne: 13.0” Oneonta :12.5” Vernon: 12.5” (County record) Carbon Hill: 12.0” Anniston: 11.0” Winfield 2 SW: 10.1” Decatur: 10.0” Birmingham: 9.5” (snow depth of 10”) Guntersville: 9.2” Scottsboro: 9.0” Haleyville: 9.0” Gadsden: 9.0” or 12.0” ??? Leeds: 8.0” Talladega: 8.0” Clanton: 8.0” Calera: 7.1” Bridgeport 5 NW: 8.0” Huntsville: 5.5” Tuscaloosa Olive: 5.0” North Carolina: Graham 2 ENE: 18.0” Greensboro: 14.0” Asheboro 2 W: 14.0” Siler City 2 N: 12.5” Tapoco: 12.2” Henderson 2 NNW: 12.0” Chapel Hill 2 W: 12.0” Durham: 12.0” Rodman: 11.0” Albemarle: 10.0” Louisburg: 10.0” Randleman: 10.0” Hendersonville: 9.0” Shelby 2 NNE: 9.0” Tryon: 9.0” Brevard: 8.5” Mocksville 5 SE: 8.5” Murphy: 8.2” Waynesville 1 E: 7.8” Statesville 2 N: 7.0” Highlands: 7.0” Morganton: 7.0” Pisgah Forest 1 N: 7.0” Charlotte: 6.8” Arcola: 6.5” Salisbury: 6.5” North Wilkesboro: 6.5” Mt Mitchell: 6.3” Lenoir: 6.2” Jefferson 2 E: 6.0” Marion 2 NW: 6.0” Cullowhee: 6.0” Asheville: 5.8” Raleigh: 5.5” Enfield: 5.5” Mt Airy: 5.5” Gastonia: 5.5” Mississippi: Louisville: 15.0” (County record) Columbus : 14.0” (23/24) Macon 2 NE: 12.5” (County record) Forest: 11.5” (County record) Jackson: 10.5” (22nd/23rd) Crystal Sprg Exp: 10.5” Kosciusko: 10.0” State University: 10.0” Walnut Grove 2 S: 10.0” Natchez: 9.5” (County record) Port Gibson 1 NE: 9.0” Canton 4 N: 8.7” Tupelo: 8.0” (24th) Aberdeen: 8.0” Water Valley: 8.0” Leakesville: 7.9” Eupora 2 E: 7.5” Pontotoc: 7.5” Boonesville: 7.0” Grenada 5 NNE: 7.0” Corinth 7 SW: 7.0” University: 6.0” Greenville: 6.0” Belzoni: 6.0” Stoneville Exp S: 5.8” Moorhead: 5.4” Tennessee: Rogersville: 15.0” Loudon 1 E: 14.0” (County record) Copperhill: 12.0” (County record) Charleston: 10.2” (County record) Kingsport: 9.5” Knoxville: 9.4” Tiptonville: 9.0” (County record) Chattanooga: 8.2” Gatlinburg: 8.0” Monteagle: 7.1” Savannah 6 SW: 7.0” Selmar: 7.0” Bristol: 6.0” Greenville: 6.0” Crossville: 6.0” Monterey: 6.0” Sewanee: 6.0” Murfreesboro 5 N: 5.9” Covington 3 SW: 5.5” Lewisburg: 5.5” Mc Minnville: 5.0” Kingston: 5.0” Bolivar water works: 5.0” Dickson: 5.0” (snow depth on 23rd) Jackson Exp station: 5.0” Cookeville: 5.0” Nashville: 4.9” Georgia: Dalton: 14.5” (County record) Chickamauga: 13.5” (23rd) Summerville: 13.0” (County record) Dahlonega 4 WSW: 12.5” Cornelia: 11.2” (County record) Gainesville: 11.0” Cumming 2 N: 10.8” (County record) Taylorsville: 10.5” Rome: 10.5” Atlanta Kirkwood: 10.0” (County record) Norcross: 10.0” (County record) Carlton Brg: 10.0” (County record) Athens: 9.8” (County record) Cedartown: 9.5” Clayton: 9.5” Newnan 5 N: 9.0” (County record) Cartersville: 8.5” Atlanta: 8.3” (County record) Toccoa: 8.2” Hartwell: 7.5” Carrollton: 6.8” Ellijay: 6.5” Blairsville Exp: 6.0” Talbotton: 4.0” Sparta: 4.0” (County record) Louisiana: St Joseph 3 N: 10.8” (County record) Tallulah: 9.1” Alexandria: 8.2” De Ridder: 8.0” Calhoun Res station: 7.0” Leesville: 6.5” Natchitoches: 6.5” Lake Providence: 6.0” Bastrop: 5.3” Logansport: 3.8” Baton Rouge: 3.5” Lake Charles: 3.4” South Carolina: Anderson: 9.5” Walhalla: 9.0” Clemson: 8.5” Caesars Head: 8.0” Santuck: 7.2” Ware Shoals: 7.1” Greenville: 6.9” Calhoun Falls: 6.4” Catawba: 6.0” Fort Mill 4 NW: 6.0” Laurens: 6.0” Chester 1 NW: 6.0” Woodruff: 5.8” Chesnee 7 WNW: 5.0” Texas: Bon Weir: 8.0” (County record) Lufkin Angelina AP: 5.0” Dallas: 4.0” Longview: 4.0” Center: 4.0” Dialville 2 W: 4.0” Tyler: 3.5” Houston: 3.0” Henderson: 3.0” Gilmer 4 WSW: 3.0” Marshall: 3.0” Mt Pleasant: 3.0” References: NCDC Winter Weather Extremes: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snowfall-extremes/FL/1 NWS Local Climate Data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=akq PlantMaps (.com) Record Temp Data: https://www.plantmaps.com/virginia-record-high-and-low-temperature-map.php WKRN (Nashville, TN) article on frozen River: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wkrn.com/special-reports/why-doesnt-the-cumberland-river-freeze-over-anymore/amp/ AlabamaWx Weather Blog Article: https://www.alabamawx.com/?p=784 Additional Reading: Atlanta Journal Constitution Article: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ajc.com/news/local/atlanta-worst-snowstorm-wasn-snowmageddon-snowjam-the-blizzard/S15Wm9pP966z5sCr5Ri6XL/%3foutputType=amp Farmville Herald Article: https://www.farmvilleherald.com/2020/12/the-great-blizzard-of-1940-stranded-by-snow-and-saved-by-a-mule/

I’m currently completely extensive research into one of the most extreme blizzards to ever impact the Southeastern states of the U.S. An event that still holds the snowfall of record in numerous counties from E TX to VA. Consequently, I look forward to sharing the details of this truly historic storm system in the coming days. In the meantime, I want to wish each member of our sub forum a wonderful rest of the weekend! Tony