HighStakes

That's exactly right. When you present your point as to what can go wrong or when you state you're getting a bad feeling about something it can get lumped in with these other people that have no idea what the hell they are talking about.

It has been weird and we still have our snowiest month statistically 5 days away. I still would bet most of the forum beats climo for the year.

We've lost the good solid middle ground posters in this forum. It's either those who are outstanding or those you are horrible and the horrible ones are increasing in size rapidly. I'd like to know how some of these people have spent hours on a daily basis over the course of years on this board and not learn a damn thing considering they have some great weather minds at their service. Unbelievable.

Light snow showers around.

Maybe this will be winter 2015 version 2.0 starting 2 weeks earlier.

If anyone is into weather, geography, micro climates etc. the area around Northern Carroll, more specifically Northeast Carroll is fascinating. I live in the valley at approximately 880 ft. elevation. PSU lives on the ridge directly in back of my house at 150-170 ft. higher probably not even 1/4 of a mile away. I've seen marginal zr events where the trees on his ridge are caked with ice and my trees are just wet or have minimal ice. I've seen marginal wet snow event ms where I get 6-7 inches and he gets 8 or more. There are many instances where the winds are calm at my house and I look up on his ridge and the trees are swaying. Also when we get on the backside of coastal pulling away we get enhanced bands or little finger bands develope and keep the snow going. Also there are times when we get our own private little snowstorms. I've seen rouge lake effect bands set up over us on a northwest flow. It's rare but when they do they can produce 2-3 inches. This happened in Feb. 2007 and again in early Feb. 2009 ( the inverted trough event that gave some areas in south central and southeastern PA 8-12 inches ). It happened again in the horrendous winter of 2012. We picked up 2-3 inches following a cold front when virtually all other areas got a dusting. Then there was March 30th 2014 where the strong low pulled down cold air and our elevation helped produce a 6-10 inch storm. The heaviest accumulations were limited to only a 5 square mile radius centered around Manchester. Highest ridges getting 10. Westminster and Hampstead got 4-6. Only snow tv south of there. And of course there was also October 2011 where the area around Northern Carroll got 6-8 and much less south towards Reisterstown. Not a bad area if you dont mind getting fringed lol.

We have had some really good tracks this winter that didnt have cold. Mid dec comes to mind Yes there were 2 or 3 in december. Big time moisture laden with no cold to tap. Now were in cold dry warm wet. December pattern if now would still yield rainers but could at least start or end as accumulating snow with higher elevations getting crushed.

The question is what are we really in. This ""nino" is weird to say the least. We have had one qpf bomb after another that have been all rainers with no cold to tap. In December a couple of them took great tracks and we rained. Almost as if this is a super Nino. Now the trend is to get cold, warm up and rain and then get cold. Almost as if it's a nina. There has been resemblance to a modoki nino. I'm not too concerned that the -nao look is pushed back. I think it benefits us better from mid February on anyway. I am concerned the -ao goes badly.

1/19: 0.5 Total: 11

Absolutely correct. Very good chance everyone in the entire forum sees snow cover the ground at least twice by superbowl weekend. Plenty winter left. I want the epic stretch as much as anyone but I'm quite pleased with the way things are progressing. I could care less about how the pac looks 14 days from now. In 2016 the ensembles crapped the bed on jan. 9th after looking solid for several days before. Then 14 days later we had a hecs. Like I've said a few time already, this year is nothing like the previous two winters. Everyone will probably exceed clime when it's all said and done.

Getting some snow showers currently. Down to 30.

Impressive total for frozen. Not sure what we got here because I was up in North Hanover and by the time I got back the new stuff was mostly washed away. Looked like Hanover got about 1.5.

Up in Hanover. Coming down real good

Few flurries here.

I dont think we ever got below 32 last night.

Not sure but I would think 82 was more Pacific driven. Probably a pretty significant -epo but that's a guess as I dont remember a lot of blocking that year but I could be wrong. The cold was center in mid January. Most notably the afc championship game in Cincinnati on jan. 10th. The following Sunday the 17th was brutal cold as well. In between the 2 sundays was the decent snow event responsible for the Florida air disaster.

I'm not sure either what is so appealing to some about 85. There were several bad bust that year. Early storm in February was supposed to be 6-10 plus ended up 1-2. Another predicted 3-6 in January turned into 1 inch. There were a couple front end thumps that were ok but they went to mix and rain. It basically was a winter that earned a reputation off of one historical arctic blast.

1/17-18: 1.5 Total: 10.5

Moderate snow. 27. A little over an inch.

Yeah. I think 2 is definitely possible. I would love to pull off 2. Aside from wishing I do think that's reasonable.

I think so too.

New York get to me the most.

The Leesburg crew provides quite the entertainment value.

After coming up short over the weekend it would be great to pull off 2 inches from this system.

Something like jan. 2014 would work in this pattern.