Solak

This is a pretty good read.

Glenn Burns 12 mins · Who’s ready for an ice storm ? It’s showing up in the European model run today. Temps in the 20s and between 1.25 to 1.50 inches of freezing rain. This would be a week from tomorrow. I HIGHLY suggest you stay tuned and begin getting prepared. This COULD be a major ice event. 597

Well, everyone always says you need a good snowpack to sustain the cold air... Top GIF is the more recent.

0.56" on Sunday, 1.05" total for the weekend.

Brad Panovich Meteorologist · Winter Storm Warnings for the TN line and the Smokies with Winter Weather Advisories for the NC mountains. 1-3" but with 3-6" above 3500' near the TN line. #wncwx #snOMG #tnwx #ncwx 116

Let's see how this weekend plays out.

Going to be a rough weekend on the coast... US National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 4 hrs · A powerful storm system will take shape off the Carolina Coast this weekend, bringing a variety of significant coastal impacts, including major coastal flooding, beach erosion, and strong winds. https://www.weather.gov/media/mhx/LatestBriefing.pdf

RAH - For Thur/Fri In terms of p-type Thursday night into Friday...right now it looks like there's simply not enough cold air involved with this system to warrant concern for anything other than rain, esp given that the coldest air and northern stream is detached and located well to our north while the aforementioned closed low is moving across the Carolinas. However and as always...we'll continue to closely monitor trends in the guidance.

RAH --- model problems and forecasting for NC. That Arctic front, analyzed at 20Z this afternoon from cntl WI swwd to srn IA, then wnwwd across srn and wrn NE and cntl WY, will be preceded by an increasingly closely-spaced but separate front analyzed from nern OH swwd across cntl IN/IL/MO, sern KS, and the OK and TX panhandles. A distinction between the two is critical for two related reasons regarding how quickly cold, particularly Arctic air, arrives in cntl NC: 1) the models tend to depict hypergradients about such closely-spaced fronts as one and 2) how the models (fail to accurately) resolve the Appalachian mountains yields a premature Arctic air surge in the lee of the mountains. Consider the past two early season Arctic frontal passages in cntl NC, for example, from Halloween night and last Thu/Nov 7. In both cases the models rushed the cold air east of the Appalachians prematurely relative to reality. These model failures are one of the chief reasons that a pattern such as the one described above, with "cold air chasing the moisture", fails to produce wintry precipitation in cntl NC. Nevermind that it's still Nov. And it provides an opportunity for failure of even the best of NWP ensemble systems that depict accumulating snow in cntl NC, and for a human to add forecast skill and value. With that in mind, a band of anafrontal rain, driven by the right entrance region of a strong (125-150 kt) swly upr jet streak from the cntl Appalachians to the Labrador Sea, behind the lead front described above, will edge ewd across cntl NC late Mon night and (particularly early) Tue - in a pattern very similar to the band of anafrontal rain that occurred last Thu/Nov 7. The Arctic boundary will then sweep sewd across cntl NC through early-mid afternoon Tue, with following much below average temperatures, including teens to low-mid 20s Wed morning, and highs only in the upr 30s to low-mid 40s on Wed.

For the Friday system ... RAH Medium-range models indicate a weak shortwave trough swinging through the area Thursday/Friday, however there is a good deal of uncertainty regarding the strength of the wave and whether it will generate any precipitation.

I'll blame it on the model run . It's not doing a good job depicting the rain currently falling along the lower Gulf states from West of New Orleans to JAX. 18z shows all the rain should be in the FL peninsula.

18z GFS - What storm?

GFS and EURO both showing a decent coastal low next weekend. Too warm for wintry precip, but hey, it's something to track EURO Sunday, GFS Friday.

Gotta love the headlines this morning. USA Today: Next week's Arctic blast will be so cold, forecasters expect it to break 170 records across US CBS News: Americans prepare for Arctic blast

RAH is waiting for more model consistency. A low pressure center passing across Canada will have a cold front that extends all the way south into Texas Monday morning, and as the front moves east, another wave of low pressure will develop along the front. The new low will form over Washington DC and move east by Tuesday morning. The front should be across eastern North Carolina at that time, but the precipitation will mostly trail the front. The GFS, GEFS, and ECMWF have all struggled with this system over the last two days, with each model flipping back and forth with the timing of the precipitation as well as the amount. Today it's the GFS's turn to go with a mostly dry frontal passage, while the ECMWF has been consistent across its last two runs showing precipitation mostly during the day. As a result, made very little change to this part of the forecast until models can come up with some sort of consistency. The frontal passage will occur Monday night, followed by precipitation Tuesday, followed by another round of colder air Tuesday night and beyond.

12z - the cold is 12 degrees warmer (35), and it's all rain (0.58") for RDU.

This would be ugly...

The 1-2 inches widespread significant rainfall mentioned above is now... While the cold front may lack widespread precipitation with it, it will not lack for cold air.

GFS (for Raleigh) has gone from 1.6" liquid (18z 11/3) to 0.025" (12z 11/4) for the upcoming 7 day period.

RAH: Thursday through Saturday: Models are starting to come into better agreement with the late week system. Timing and magnitude differences with the passage of a northern stream trough and the next Arctic front into the Eastern US has lessen with the latest 12z/03 model runs, with the GFS trending towards the slower ECMWF/CMC solution(well known GFS cold bias). However, model spread remains high with the eastward evolution of a southern stream impulse crossing the SE US Thursday night through Friday. Stronger/slower model solutions, like the GFS, develop an area of low pressure along the trailing end of the aforementioned Arctic front as these features intersect over the SE US, resulting in the development of a widespread significant rainfall event(1 to 2 inches) across the Carolinas. The probability of seeing any p-type other than rain eastern of the NC mountains is extremely low with no creditable threat for snow at this time. Have raised PoPs to high chance for Thursday night and into Friday with a cold and wet day expected on Friday.

Maybe for some, but not all.

18zGFS Hr 276. Later with the cold...

Impressive lightning. Seeing the sky light up from storms 50+ miles away.