andyhb

Well after Wednesday went to a non-event rather quickly due to leftover clouds/etc, there appears to be a decent amount of potential near the WF on Saturday, especially on the 00z Euro, with a relatively strong/backed LLJ and good upper support over the E Dakotas and perhaps W MN. Again, leftover convection is going to be a question mark, since this evening could have relatively widespread storms ongoing.

00z GFS/NAM soundings are still really impressive on Wednesday afternoon/evening in (you guessed it) north central/northeast NE and south central/southeast SD with steep mid level lapse rates and strong directional shear in the lowest km. The area is very weakly capped at 21z so there should be a window for storm initiation in there, and with a well-timed shortwave impulse passing through the area, it screams a good August chasing opportunity as it looks now (who woulda thunk it) and does have several similarities to the June 16th/17th setups. It likely will come down to mesoscale placement again, but any supercell that goes up there will have good possibilities for significant severe given the parameters in place with a feed of 70 Tds along a corridor on either side of the NE/SD border. I would think that SPC has to revise that "no severe area" in the D3 with the upcoming D2. There seems to be increasing potential here.

Had a little flashback to mid June when I saw some of the model guidance today.

Figured I'd create another one of these since the old one got locked. Might be potential for a severe wx episode next week if some of the medium range model solutions are on the right track. Looks like a rather sizable upper trough for August dropping through the Pacific NW, then ejecting in some form towards the Northern/Central Plains.

If you had to put some sort of value of damage or casualty potential with a tornado, that one is almost certainly way up there, considering it's path length, size, intensity, longevity of maintaining said intensity and forward speed. The fact it killed 72 people (and the ratio of fatalities to injuries) without going through a town of more than 1500 people (per the 2010 census) speaks for itself.

Catastrophic flooding taking place in Alberta...75,000+ people are displaced, Calgary's downtown is flooded, the Saddledome is flooded. The Bow River has essentially turned into a raging torrent.

Wow, that is amazing.

EF1 tornado in Oregon yesterday per LSRs.

The LLJ that day wasn't 80-100 kts, it was around 60-80 kts, the H5 jet was around 110 kts in the max though.

Made it to at least 84˚F here today, probably hotter.

Now officially 2 years since this event, kind of hard to believe to be honest.

It could be a satellite rotation off of the main circulation, I believe the El Reno tornado had something similar at one point. It could also just be a cloud formation if it wasn't rotating (a bit hard to tell in that video). The power flash at the end reminds me of one of the shots of the 5/3/99 tornado in Moore from a helicopter.

I believe you are referring to this (insane motion):

And this is the shear they would've had access to if they had fired in that area:

Let's play "where's the tornado" with that volume scan. And here's the 4 km NAM image that Hoosier was referring to (this had 2000 J/kg of CAPE to Kokomo), this would've been something else...

Indianapolis would've been in trouble (as would Kokomo, Bloomington, , I believe Dayton would've been in far greater trouble as well. I remember you pulled some ridiculous sounding from there a couple of days out, I'll see if I can dig it up. Ah yes, here it is...an EHI of 10.5 on March 2nd?

One thing that can be appreciated is just how lucky the big cities in the outbreak zone got on this day. Louisville, Lexington, the Cincinnati/Dayton metro and Nashville were all well under the gun with this event and the big storms decided to play hopscotch around them. Not to mention the threat down south didn't materialize as it could have later on with the gradually veering low level winds. There was a strong tornado in GA northwest of Atlanta and in Central AL (northern AL and the Chattanooga area got hit in the morning), but there could've been a secondary outbreak down there had things been tweaked just a bit. 0-6 km bulk shear graphic I posted from the 00z March 1st NAM.

As the title suggests, today is the one year anniversary of the most significant tornado event to affect the Ohio Valley region in quite sometime (likely at least since the 6/2/90 outbreak) and one of the most impressive severe weather events in Early March on record in the United States, just two days after a deadly and destructive tornado struck Harrisburg, IL on the morning of Feb 29th. Towns such as New Pekin and Henryville, IN, West Liberty and Salyersville, KY and Moscow, OH suffered severe damage from strong/violent and fast moving tornadoes. This day also marked only the 3rd time since 1985 that two separate tornadoes killed 10 or more people (4/27/11 and 2/5/08 being the others). Violent tornado moving into Henryville, IN on Louisville, KY radar: The New Pekin/Henryville tornado: West Liberty, KY tornado on Jackson, KY radar prior to reaching the town: MCD Issued as the outbreak was really going on in Eastern KY:

Well there was one in April 2010 as well (Yazoo City).

The April 27th, 2011 outbreak.

Many of the models and quite a few ensemble members have that second trough/disturbance diving into the West around the D10 period.

Snowed in Tokyo with that thing.

Screen cap of the Phil Campbell tornado going through the city/around that area, taken from the Country Road 71/Mon Dye road area on the east side of town near Little Bear Creek, looking back WNW towards the wedge tornado, likely with EF5 damage occurring right as this shot was taken.

Got TSRA right now.

Pacific NW might be in for a decent storm on Saturday, The 00z GFS, GGEM and NAM all get a ~980 mb cyclone rotating out of the large west coast trough with strong southeasterly winds around the coast/perhaps inland depending how the LLJ dynamics shape up (although a bit more of a southern nudge would be a more impressive scenario), in addition to fairly solid rainfall amounts, will check the Euro momentarily to see if trends south a bit. GGEM and GFS also have a second system around the 120 hr period, with the GGEM being much more impressive (although this might be suspicious considering the GGEM's tendency to overdue sfc cyclogenesis, the UL jet feeding this system is stronger than the one on Saturday). Edit, Euro, although stronger with the Saturday system, is further north.