andyhb
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Everything posted by andyhb
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The AA precip over almost the entire Gulf suggests a quiet Gulf?
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That shortwave that ejects into the Plains behind it is at a pretty low latitude and it quite strong for June. Would think there could be a considerable severe threat with it assuming the two are separated by a decent degree. CIPS analogs are loaded with big events, but obviously there's a wrench in there with Cristobal.
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Curious as to the severe potential with this once the more tropical thermodynamic profiles are somewhat muted into Wednesday. Anomalous wind fields at all levels and plenty of low level moisture would indicate the potential for a pretty significant squall at the very least. A lot of things depend on the speed of Cristobal through the area.
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Fixed.
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Amphan in the Bay of Bengal up to Category 4 status, rapid intensification occurring. -
3 km NAM joins the party near the Capital District into S VT. Can't say you pull area-averaged soundings like this too often up there.
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Pretty solid agreement from the 00z convective allowing models (HRRR/ARW/NSSL) for a few supercells in upstate NY and then tracking along the MA-VT/NH borders later. I'm not a huge fan of the relative lack of steeper mid level lapse rates, but at least low level lapse rates are half decent leading to some rather large 0-3 km CAPE. Good wind profiles as well, wouldn't sleep on this setup up there.
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Central/Western Medium-Long Range Discussion
andyhb replied to andyhb's topic in Central/Western States
Wednesday next week looks like a good opportunity for slow-moving supercells, sign me up. -
Central/Western Medium-Long Range Discussion
andyhb replied to andyhb's topic in Central/Western States
Not that the upcoming pattern for the next week or so will be great for severe prospects, but this is indeed getting a bit repetitive. Two days after you posted the bolded, there was a localized tornado outbreak along I-35 in S OK that was probably the best April chase day in a portion of the Plains in awhile (along with more tornadoes on 4/24 in SE OK/NE TX). -
Estill SC tornado upgraded to EF4.
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10+ violent tornadoes and the rest of the numbers usually follow suit. Any outbreak like that automatically earns the title "historic" in my book. Actually any outbreak with more than a half dozen violent tornadoes does so. There are other factors such as location (see: 5/31/1985) and time of year (e.g. 1/21-22/99, 2/5/08) that also factor in.
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Wouldn't be shocked if we end up with two EF4s out of that lead supercell.
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Absolutely nuts.
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Good stuff, retweeted.
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Not sure if this is yours or if you have a twitter account, but this should be shared.
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Yet another EF3 in Columbia’s CWA.
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Tornado scars showing up from visible satellite. Saw a lot of this post-4/27/11.
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High end damage all around along this portion of the Bassfield-Soso, MS EF4 track.
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Debris travelling crazy distances is a hallmark of high end tornadoes (and often high end setups) and this is no exception.
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Nope, I believe it is from the first tornado, which dissipated before hitting Bassfield.
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LIX keeping it at EF3 as of now.
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Tornado from second supercell is prelim EF3. The first tornado from the lead supercell (same that produced the Bassfield EF4) is EF2 (in Walthall County). Just wanted to clarify since this all is quite confusing indeed.
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Very intense vegetation damage along this portion of the first tornado's path near Bassfield, MS.
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Major tornado just struck Seneca, SC head on. 63.5 dBZ debris ball, TDS bottoming out.
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61 dBZ debris ball and I had +73/-134 mph a couple of scans ago, that is a very strong tornado.
