andyhb

Really like today's setup south of I-40 in OK. Likely a couple of outflow boundaries to interact with for storms coming off the dryline, plus winds (as of now) are remaining more backed than in model guidance. Residual capping may also encourage rather photogenic storm structure in addition to the tornado threat.

What? Mid-late May is climatological peak season for these areas.

SREF popping a 90 this early (FH 72) is a pretty good indicator of a problem on Thursday.

10+ violent tornadoes and the rest of the numbers usually follow suit. Any outbreak like that automatically earns the title "historic" in my book. Actually any outbreak with more than a half dozen violent tornadoes does so. There are other factors such as location (see: 5/31/1985) and time of year (e.g. 1/21-22/99, 2/5/08) that also factor in.

Wouldn't be shocked if we end up with two EF4s out of that lead supercell.

Absolutely nuts.

Good stuff, retweeted.

Not sure if this is yours or if you have a twitter account, but this should be shared.

Yet another EF3 in Columbia’s CWA.

Tornado scars showing up from visible satellite. Saw a lot of this post-4/27/11.

High end damage all around along this portion of the Bassfield-Soso, MS EF4 track.

Debris travelling crazy distances is a hallmark of high end tornadoes (and often high end setups) and this is no exception.

Nope, I believe it is from the first tornado, which dissipated before hitting Bassfield.

LIX keeping it at EF3 as of now.

Tornado from second supercell is prelim EF3. The first tornado from the lead supercell (same that produced the Bassfield EF4) is EF2 (in Walthall County). Just wanted to clarify since this all is quite confusing indeed.

Very intense vegetation damage along this portion of the first tornado's path near Bassfield, MS.

Major tornado just struck Seneca, SC head on. 63.5 dBZ debris ball, TDS bottoming out.

61 dBZ debris ball and I had +73/-134 mph a couple of scans ago, that is a very strong tornado.

Cell near Thomaston, GA looks close to producing and it could be a sig tor if it does.

This whole violent tornadoes on trolley tracks idea is eerily similar to 4/11/65 in S MI.

Cell is taking on more classic supercell characteristics. Cell in behind doing the same.

There's more to a "historic" tornado outbreak than just parameters. My biggest concern as of now is early convection mitigating the threat, especially if the warm front has more difficulty lifting north than forecast. UK and Euro are consistent in a fairly ominous solution, but they also were for 3/28.

Cleveland Superbomb part II in April.

Storms moving at the speed of light would be number one regarding chasing. I do think there’s a pretty strong possibility this stays mostly discrete until the evening though. Would maybe like to see a bit more turning in the lowest 3 km and a bit more instability, but I’m inclined to think that the arcing Pacific front/pseudo-dryline, in addition to the triple point in IA early on, should be a breeding ground for supercells. Tornado potential dependent on how the low level wind fields evolve (and how fast the deep layer cyclone occludes).

Why do you keep tagging me with the weenie emoji?