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andyhb

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Everything posted by andyhb

  1. andyhb
    Jackpots of over 16” in central IA and S WI with this, seems like many areas got over 10” by the end of it.
  2. andyhb
    Looks like the advertised spread the wealth event is coming into fruition. Seems like N IN is doing pretty well compared to expectations, widespread 6-12" elsewhere.
  3. andyhb
    Des Moines looks like it’s getting hammered.
  4. andyhb
    18z EPS mean is 10" for the QC even at 10:1 ratios, pretty impressive considering I'd expect the ratios to be better than that through a good chunk of the storm. This will punch above its weight class SLP depth wise given the favorable dynamics aloft and very strong LLJ/WAA minus a lot of strong convection in the warm sector. Height falls look excellent on the 00z GFS.
  5. andyhb
    HRRR continues to be very impressive, albeit likely overdone. Verbatim would likely mean some pockets of 12-18" over IA and N IL/S WI.
  6. andyhb
    IIRC that wave had a deepening trend closer to verification as well as the PV lobe became better resolved, I remember having some back and forth with @RCNYILWX about it at the time. The issue this time is that the upstream ridge isn't quite as amplified as that, and there's a bit more phasing required here for a higher end outcome.
  7. andyhb
    500 mb evolution with this does remind me a good deal of a slightly less impressive version of GHD II. Trough/jet streak matures in a very similar way and the thermos aren't terribly far off from that either. More likely to taper out with eastward extent though.
  8. andyhb
    Visibility is effectively zero on that Skydeck webcam now.
  9. andyhb
    How has no one said "rdy 2 b buried" yet?
  10. andyhb
    Incredible and I mean incredible tree/vegetation damage from Melissa across a large area in this video. There's only a few TCs in recent memory that have produced damage on this scale.
  11. andyhb
    The damage in this overhead imagery is pretty mind boggling.
  12. andyhb
    This horrific damage from White House, Jamaica is right up there with the highest end I've seen out of a tropical cyclone. Near 100% structural failure/roof failure here.
  13. andyhb
    Wait, recon made another turn. They seem to be trying to find a flight path around the strong convection on the east side of the CDO.
  14. andyhb
    Annnnnnd recon bailed.
  15. andyhb
    Bombs away with this microwave satellite presentation hot off the press. Very well organized inner core.
  16. andyhb
    The GFS has been notably an eastern outlier for the track for days now.
  17. andyhb
    Based on what?
  18. andyhb
    Cayman Islands may also have a serious problem with this storm, especially if it gets as intense as a pretty significant chunk of guidance suggests it could.
  19. andyhb
    Jamaica is in serious trouble with this one if it is able to drift westward and develop as conditions become more favorable shear-wise. An approach from the south ala the 12z Euro would be a) highly unusual and b) the most dangerous for Kingston especially if it winds up in the RFQ by some stroke of bad luck. Most of the really nasty TCs in Jamaica's history (e.g. Gilbert, Charlie) have approached from the E/ESE.
  20. andyhb
    Have a pretty optimistic view that this will be the catalyst for a reanalysis of tornadoes from recent years for revisions to their ratings.
  21. andyhb
    Locally significant tornado threat possible over NE OK and NW AR tomorrow, in the vicinity of a modifying outflow boundary from tonight's MCS along the OK/KS border.
  22. andyhb
    Could always tell (and appreciate) when it was Burns who was moderating since he treated it all as it should be treated -> as a principal disciplining unruly children. RIP to a good man.
  23. andyhb
    Why are we trying to spin this as a good thing? Seriously. There is no good reason to end SSMIS regardless of what program it is a part of. The other microwave imagery is significantly degraded compared to SSMIS.
  24. andyhb
    So monitoring/predicting rapid intensification is worth nothing? Yeah, no. Intensity forecasting is the more difficult aspect of TC forecasting compared to track.
  25. andyhb
    F*ck this administration. Too political for the weather board? Too bad. Absolute nonsense to decommission microwave satellite data at any time, but especially immediately before hurricane season.
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