buckeye

The gfs actually came in a bit stronger . Honestly though, I wouldn't even be looking at snowfall maps until later tomorrow. There are so many nuances with exact track, synoptic changeover time, localized squalls, etc. Still, if we were staring down the barrel of our usual central OH xmas, (brown and 40 degrees), we'd be begging for something like this. Wasn't last year when we had the xmas eve 4 incher?

so one of the trends I've seen in the last couple of model runs is for the trough to be less sharp, more broad. This is good and bad for us. Good because the cold comes in faster but weaker system. Hope it's just a glitch otherwise this is a strong arctic frontal passage for all of us.

If you asked me what the best place to be right now, (outside of lake influenced areas or far nw), I'm not sure I could pinpoint it. That's what's crazy about this scenario. If you're directly north or northeast of it you get rain wrapping in as it starts to bomb, if you're directly west of it, you run the risk of the dryslot. I guess it's always best to be in closer proximity of the low itself but that's about all you can say. Either way we should see squalls, wind, and even a short period of lake effect with the trajectory of the low....not including whatever synoptic happens. Lots of localized winners and losers with this one. Interesting for sure!

2” in Westerville? Seems low. I don’t recall much snow on the ground left by evening after a day of fog drizzle and mild temps…and any snow that was already on the ground would have turned to glacier when we had the flash freeze and would not have been an issue in blowing and drifting. So essentially that would mean 2” of fresh snow paralyzed a city for a week and made travel impossible without a snowmobile.

typical historic trends and climo are for typical storms....this is not going to be a typical storm. I don't know whether the current track holds or it goes west or it goes east....nor does anyone else. I suppose this might be classified as a manitoba mauler?? If fail happens, (meaning getting the snowfall shaft), it won't be because of a warm tongue, it'll be a dryslot that screws someone. Sure there'll be rain ahead of the storm but models often underestimate how quickly the temps crash with such a dynamic system. This is not the type of system where we'll be waiting endlessly for sleet and rain to turn to snow, it'll be rain...bang...snow and wind. Whether we get 3" or a foot it's going to be a fun one. The blizzard of 78 only dropped 6 or 7 inches in a very short time and that closed the city for a week and was the deadliest and costliest winterstorm in our history. Let's not offend mother nature by complaining about dendrite growth due to high winds . Let's jus get a memorable xmas eve snowstorm that we can tell our grandkids about. Besides, I have my first grandchild due xmas day! Going to be a fun week. ' ' '

126 hr gefs…. Not exactly a set in stone track. Very dynamic system and doubtful exact track is nailed down outside of 72 hrs. Whatever happens this is a fun one to track.

icon, but gem is similar, a little less extreme

you gotta admit this would be kinda cool

I wonder if the gfs still has a bias for being too far east

looks like the trough out west is trending more west on the models. The gfs is still digging and resulting in a coastal track while the canadian and icon are driving the ull much further north and sending one hell of an arctic front through. We need a combination of the gfs and the gem. Although I wouldn't mind an icon solution. Thunder and driving rain changing immediately to heavy snow, wind, and flash freeze to single digits would be fun....even if it only lasts an hour.

Forget about it…. DT saw the 12z gfs and is barking like a rabid dog. This is not just a coastal but a BFD (his words), and he’s even cutting a special vid. Any future runs showing a further nw solution will be deemed as defying physics and you will be instructed to ignore.

With the ostracisation and subsequent disappearance of Hoosier, I was concerned over who would pick up the sub's drought monitoring duties. Looks like Alek has it handled.

It’s basically what we do. Why else come here? also ukmet looks like it would go in a completely different direction with the pna ridge offf shore and trough much further west…. That would probably be Chicago special.

Lol and the Canadian says what storm?

Looks like the gfs went with my option 2 .

definitely a thread the needle...but when aren't they? options 1. strung out fast moving northern stream sends a run-of-the-mill cold front (gfs 6z) 2. potent northern stream digs to TN valley and sets up a coastal and we are in the donut-hole smoking cirrus 3. something in between, (euro) At least it appears there won't be precip-type issues. Even if someone starts as rain it would be a quick turnover.

me too.... that's a hell of a Merry Christmas courtesy of the folks up north

3 week scheduled maintenance bump

I've never seen 500 maps as crazy as they've been. Everything is fast moving and blocky at the same time. If you do model run comparisons beyond 120 hours, the changes and differences are night and day run to run.. Gotta be a nightmare for forecasters.

Me too. My body doesn't handle cold like it use to. Every winter I start to understand more and more why people move south after retirement. Of course I still love a good snow if I'm going to be in this climo anyways.

We will challenge our record today which was previously set Nov 6 1977. Therefore my official winter analog is 77-78

so no mod this winter and the Ohio crowd has yet to self-quarantine.... Juice up the storm track and it's gonna be thunderdome in here.

43 pages in their winter spec thread. I suspect they'll be cancelling winter by next week.

better yet. GFS says we, (central ohio), after tomorrow, don't go sub 40 for the next 16 days. Absolutely love warm dry Novembers.

- latest measurable snowfall? - least snowfall? - both? due to CAD or WAW?