Radtechwxman
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Everything posted by Radtechwxman
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Ah looking at the old school version. Would you mind linking me?
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Where do you go to see it loaded so fast? On pivotal it is barely out.
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DVN for sure. Always get tornado warnings near by. Big wind events. Often in the heavy snow axis. Rockford isn't bad either. N IL lucks out a lot. I didn't do an in depth look. Just a quick glance at the sfc map. So definitely could be wrong myself. I'm partly wishcasting
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Obviously take it with a grain of salt because it's nam and it's long range but it has a more southerly look to it. Yes I'm grasping for straws here.
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Dude same! They always get nailed in winter storms and always seem to get severe wx nearby. Peoria on occasion lucks out but overall more often get missed.
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Looks like a nail biter as usual here. Hoping for a south trend usually doesn't end well unless it's a clipper. I'm on the southern end of most guidance now. Guessing for a near miss to the north. Would be nice to get big snow but as long as I don't get cold rain I will be semi content.
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Good ol' Goofus model. 18z run is like what storm. Lololololol
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Well if I miss the snow could have my 2nd ice storm of the 2020-2021 winter season lol
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Can anyone post the euro ice maps?
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I definitely would rather be in the in between with models at this stage. Being in jackpot days out usually doesn't end well unless it's GHD 2011 blizzard which locked in like a week out. Ha
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12z euro miss north like by miles. 12z gfs miss south barely. Lock it in. Lol. Obviously take heavy snow axis with grain of salt at this time but does look like cut off will be sharp and could be near here. Low track is actually great on the GFS and Euro for my area but guessing some warm air aloft getting pulled north could set up the mixing line nearby.
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Amen to this! Lol. Nice to finally join the club of good winter storms. Looks like we get colder again after a brief torch. Hopefully that comes with some storms for us all! Spread the wealth!
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Snow finally ended. Probably got 3in. It's a very heavy wet snow which is just weighing down the branches which were already stressed with ice. You can hear trees moaning and screeching and branches crashing down. Transformers are starting to blow. Been seeing power flashes and corresponding booms.
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Man this snow has been a nice surprise. I thought most of it was going to be to my nw. Upper low setup perfectly for me to get in the pivot point. Easily have 2in now and coming down hard.
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Really happy with this storm. Definitely have over a quarter inch of ice here. It's snowing pretty hard now with these convective bursts rotating in from the east as the upper low moves overhead. Definitely wasn't worse case scenario due to sleet mixing early on and dry slot this afternoon but best winter event we seen here in a while.
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Models didn't depict this dry slot very well. Seems a lot more north and broader than forecasted. It's about pushed into Peoria. Hoping that deformation band can work its magic here later.
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That dry slot is really pushing north. Curious if precip will fill in more later. Deformation band seems so west and a pretty wide dry slot
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Seems to be a lot of sleet mixing in so far here in Peoria. Definitely wasn't expecting that. Maybe cold air is initially deeper than anticipated?
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Meanwhile my temp keeps creeping up and is a few degrees warmer than hrrr depicts now. I'm nervous. Lol
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I been monitoring the observations versus hrrr modeled temps. Overall isn't too off. I did see we dropped to 22 earlier but up to 25 now. Hopefully that will level out and not keep rising. ENE wind should hopefully keep that in check.
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Yea unfortunately you're right. Wondering if that has to due to urban heat island effect and maybe influence from the river. Most models keep us around freezing but daytime ice events have high bust potential. We shall see. Definitely our best potential we had since the one back in 2008.
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Nice to see you back man! It's been too long. Last significant ice I remember here in my county was like 2009 I think. Have had icing events since but they didn't pan out well or weren't excessive. Definitely nervous that temps could surge above freezing. Daytime ice events can be tricky. But I like we maintain northerly sfc flow which should help.
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Think they're trustworthy with low level thermals? They keep temps at or below freezing the whole event whereas GFS, Nam are bringing us above freezing by 18z. Current HRRR run is several degrees too cold on current temps and doesn't even bring me to 27 which I'm already at. RAP also looks to be running too cold.
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Icing events are so finicky and a nightmare to forecast. Such a delicate balance of temperatures. A little colder could mean more sleet. A little warmer rain.
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06z hrrr looking quite nice. Similar to 0z run. Has a broad swath of ice storm warning criteria totals. Temps a bit marginal for significant icing but feel confident in a good corridor of 0.1-0.2in with pockets exceeding a quarter inch. Not completely sold on half inch totals yet.
