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Radtechwxman

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Everything posted by Radtechwxman

  1. Radtechwxman
    My NWS office currently has my temp on Fri at 45. Think that needs to be adjusted down. Lol
  2. Radtechwxman
    Definitely warmer than 0z run. But like you said still a nice swath of snow and looked like more ice. Wish I could see ice totals on pivotal
  3. Radtechwxman
    Yea it's an odd setup with regards to surface flow. Seems like models are trending more towards a WAA snow event and less icing now. Euro/gfs in decent agreement which is surprising this far out
  4. Radtechwxman
    What are your thoughts on the icing potential in IL? GFS has a wide swath of ice
  5. Radtechwxman
    The key will come down to the strength and placement of that arctic high to the north. GFS has a 1047mb high over the Great Lakes area Fri versus Euro which is further east and 1044mb. GFS scenario allows for a prolonged significant icing event as the shallow layer of arctic air won't push north as fast as it does on Euro. Last run of Euro before this morning had the winter precip well north. This morning's run definitely appeared colder though not as icy as GFS. Curious to see how this unfolds
  6. Radtechwxman
    Had a few hours of nice rippage here and ended up with around 2in. Deformation band was rather disorganized and fast moving. This storm has been a real nightmare for forecasting. Low in the end was weaker and further east. Temp profiles were very problematic as well. I commend the nws offices for a great job with a difficult forecast
  7. Radtechwxman
    This deformation band is looking pretty anemic. Unless it really blossoms later, snow totals will bust bad which already looked bleak with a more organized band
  8. Radtechwxman
    Yea seems like instead of the rain training along the same areas all night, it ended up pushing east quicker than new bands of rain could pull northeast. Curious to see if this deformation band will materialize over us or not
  9. Radtechwxman
    Current hrrr is way off on temps. Currently in 30s here and hrrr showing 45. But looks like 1st wave of precip will be gone regardless before I drop enough. Have to wait on deformation band
  10. Radtechwxman
    21z hrrr is laughable at surface evolution. It has like 2-3 low centers. Very odd evolution
  11. Radtechwxman
    Literally was thinking the same thing. Way overdone..except Michigan. They probably will get a decent ice storm
  12. Radtechwxman
    If I remember right you're right by me. Lol. But yea typically flash flood watch + winter storm watch don't pan out well for winter weather. Best icing definitely to my northwest and same with snow. Meh. When gfs is your best outcome you know you're screwed
  13. Radtechwxman
    Right?! Meanwhile I'm like inches of cold rain with minimal ice and snow. Joy
  14. Radtechwxman
    So close. Ugh. Need the slightest se shift. Probably going to end up seeing mostly rain here. What a waste of a dynamic system
  15. Radtechwxman
    0z euro very amped. Has heaviest snow axis pretty much out of IL
  16. Radtechwxman
    Good ol medium range model chaos. Lol. Probably going to see a lot of wild swings till we get sampling Thurs
  17. Radtechwxman
    Literally was just discussing this with a buddy. Temps very marginal for a good icing event and ground is pretty mild to start. Snow will likely be slop fest to with low ratios. We need some good quality cold air
  18. Radtechwxman
    Yea GFS is all about the ice. Curious how much of that is sleet vs freezing rain. Definitely a northern shift in wintry precip on gfs today
  19. Radtechwxman
    I wish the Canadian could be right. Lol. Looks like 1-2in here. In the words of Ariana Grande "thank you next"
  20. Radtechwxman
    Curious if we will see any last second shifts with sampling finally occurring tonight and tomorrow
  21. Radtechwxman
    This thread died as fast as it started. Lol
  22. Radtechwxman
    Seemed like the snow swath was further south. But maybe just a narrower band and sharper north cutoff. Starting to feel it will be lucky if this snow even makes it to I74. Sometimes these frontogenic bands can really be thread the needle. Deformation band looks to clip here possibly
  23. Radtechwxman
    Wouldn't that lead to a further north scenario typically? Seems like it ended up more south. But it also has that high pressure really nudging south
  24. Radtechwxman
    12z nam coming in south. Pretty much stopping snow band at I72. At least for the WAA snow
  25. Radtechwxman
    Yea 18z nam looks good for a good portion of this forum. Nice WAA band. Curious to see if 18z gfs nudges north. 3km nam and 12km nam both looked nice
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