Radtechwxman
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Everything posted by Radtechwxman
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Can anyone post the euro ice maps?
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I definitely would rather be in the in between with models at this stage. Being in jackpot days out usually doesn't end well unless it's GHD 2011 blizzard which locked in like a week out. Ha
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12z euro miss north like by miles. 12z gfs miss south barely. Lock it in. Lol. Obviously take heavy snow axis with grain of salt at this time but does look like cut off will be sharp and could be near here. Low track is actually great on the GFS and Euro for my area but guessing some warm air aloft getting pulled north could set up the mixing line nearby.
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Amen to this! Lol. Nice to finally join the club of good winter storms. Looks like we get colder again after a brief torch. Hopefully that comes with some storms for us all! Spread the wealth!
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Snow finally ended. Probably got 3in. It's a very heavy wet snow which is just weighing down the branches which were already stressed with ice. You can hear trees moaning and screeching and branches crashing down. Transformers are starting to blow. Been seeing power flashes and corresponding booms.
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Man this snow has been a nice surprise. I thought most of it was going to be to my nw. Upper low setup perfectly for me to get in the pivot point. Easily have 2in now and coming down hard.
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Really happy with this storm. Definitely have over a quarter inch of ice here. It's snowing pretty hard now with these convective bursts rotating in from the east as the upper low moves overhead. Definitely wasn't worse case scenario due to sleet mixing early on and dry slot this afternoon but best winter event we seen here in a while.
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Models didn't depict this dry slot very well. Seems a lot more north and broader than forecasted. It's about pushed into Peoria. Hoping that deformation band can work its magic here later.
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That dry slot is really pushing north. Curious if precip will fill in more later. Deformation band seems so west and a pretty wide dry slot
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Seems to be a lot of sleet mixing in so far here in Peoria. Definitely wasn't expecting that. Maybe cold air is initially deeper than anticipated?
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Meanwhile my temp keeps creeping up and is a few degrees warmer than hrrr depicts now. I'm nervous. Lol
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I been monitoring the observations versus hrrr modeled temps. Overall isn't too off. I did see we dropped to 22 earlier but up to 25 now. Hopefully that will level out and not keep rising. ENE wind should hopefully keep that in check.
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Yea unfortunately you're right. Wondering if that has to due to urban heat island effect and maybe influence from the river. Most models keep us around freezing but daytime ice events have high bust potential. We shall see. Definitely our best potential we had since the one back in 2008.
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Nice to see you back man! It's been too long. Last significant ice I remember here in my county was like 2009 I think. Have had icing events since but they didn't pan out well or weren't excessive. Definitely nervous that temps could surge above freezing. Daytime ice events can be tricky. But I like we maintain northerly sfc flow which should help.
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Think they're trustworthy with low level thermals? They keep temps at or below freezing the whole event whereas GFS, Nam are bringing us above freezing by 18z. Current HRRR run is several degrees too cold on current temps and doesn't even bring me to 27 which I'm already at. RAP also looks to be running too cold.
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Icing events are so finicky and a nightmare to forecast. Such a delicate balance of temperatures. A little colder could mean more sleet. A little warmer rain.
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06z hrrr looking quite nice. Similar to 0z run. Has a broad swath of ice storm warning criteria totals. Temps a bit marginal for significant icing but feel confident in a good corridor of 0.1-0.2in with pockets exceeding a quarter inch. Not completely sold on half inch totals yet.
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Nam is very aggressive with the warm push north and also tracks the low north of I70. Most guidance has shifted along or just south of I70 with sfc low track
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Yea nam is the most north guidance and an outlier at this point
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I'm curious of this myself. I think most areas will go WWA and upgrade to ice storm warning if need be
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Thanks man! I need to get a premium model subscription but college has me broke. Ha. That's very impressive. Similar to gem with significance.
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0z euro bumped se again. Anyone have ice maps?
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Man that's nice. Looks like I could possibly see more snow or sleet being north of heaviest freezing rain on RAP. Funny because I was worried about going to rain too soon
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Well nam certainly didn't get the se memo. It surges warm air north very quickly.
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That 21z rap is sick. Don't tell sir angry. LoW iS weAKeR, tHeRe woN't bE aNY qPf iN cOLd sEcToR.
