Radtechwxman
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Everything posted by Radtechwxman
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Just wondering if by then the forward speed will be too fast to take full advantage of the good environment
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Still trying to mix out dry air and organize core so intensification will be gradual till then
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NHC now forecasting a cat 4 landfall so guess that answers my question of dry air concerns. Ha
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That dry air definitely made it into the COC. Degraded it more than I anticipated. Curious what hurricane hunters will find intensity wise. Wondering when Helene will really take off.
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Still a good bit to work out on northern edge of COC. The better environment tonight should help really accelerate things.
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Looks like maybe attempting to close off an eyewall finally
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Curious what impact this dry air wrapping into circulation now will have on Helene. Can really see it eroding clouds on visible satellite wrapping into the COC. Could lower ceiling a bit if it takes a while to mix out.
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How likely do you think that is? I mean it does have Loop Current and great atmospheric conditions tonight. We saw what Ian did overnight even after crossing western Cuba.
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Definitely could have impacted it some. Should see Helene really take off later today and tonight.
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May stay steady state a bit while it tries to mix out that dry and reorganize its inner core
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Has the center passed the Yucatan or could this put it in position to interact with land?
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And there it is. Hurricane Helene. 80mph 979mb. Forecasting 125 mph landfall now. I think cat 4 is a decent if not good possibility.
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Wonder if that will get into the core and impact organization a while since core is still kind of open and not completely closed off yet
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Current motion of this certainly looks like it could pass over Yucatan. Hard to tell but will be very close if it doesn't
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Agreed. That's when it could possibly get over loop current and have really good outflow ventilation Satellite appearance would agree. Main thing now is does center go onto Yucatan or stay over water
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Quite impressed with how quick it had organized this evening. Satellite appearance looks better each frame. That CDO evolving nicely. Now we need to see this reflected on a radar standpoint with eyewall development.
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I agree and once that core is established I think that's when RI intensification phase will start
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Satellite really starting to look interesting. Getting nice cyclonic curvature now and convection beginning to wrap more around center instead of on its periphery.
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How far off is the COC from that convection right now? Isn't the shear supposed to be dying down now?
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Seems like late tomorrow night through Thurs are best conditions for RI. May encounter shear/dry air close to landfall Thurs.
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Now the million dollar question, will the COC pass over Yucatan and if it does how much will this impact the storm? Could allow dry air into core.
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For RI though need that center right under the convective blob and if it's more on the edge strengthening may be more gradual till then. But we are entering the diurnally favorable time for strengthening.
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Interesting. Wonder if that's cuz of shear or just part of the LLC and MLC trying to organize and align with each other.
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That CDO really getting healthy now over center. It's getting more symmetrical, getting colder, and starting to fan out signifying less shear and better upper outflow. We will likely have a hurricane tonight. Big question is does it go over Yucatan and get disrupted.
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It's still a little asymmetrical and can tell western half is dealing with some shear still but the eastern half really starting to get some nice cyclonic curvature
