Radtechwxman

NHC not backing down on cat 4 landfall. But mentioning it's lacking inner core. If that doesn't develop overnight I don't see this hitting cat 4. Surprised they didn't mention the dry air issues plaguing it all day.

It's been the same one all day spiraling around its core. It's trying to mix it out. Think it will be able to shake it off? Not a Tswift reference

Wouldn't that double structure support an EWRC happening? That will definitely make it tougher for RI to occur

Dry air intrusions seem to be the story this season. That dry air made it into the core and really did a number on Helene getting organized. Francine struggled its whole life with dry air. Never could shake it. The high octane ocean and favorable outflow aloft will still support intensification but if the dry air can never fully be purged Helene won't hit her ceiling. Probably more a low end 3 maybe mid 3 at best. Regardless still will be devastating impact. Curious to see what will happen tonight over Loop Current.

Not sure if most of you realize that RI wasn't supposed to start till tonight into Thurs. The dry air definitely through a wrench in the core organization. However it's about to enter the very high OHC and even better upper atmospheric conditions.

You know what model has a terrible handle on this now? Hrrr. Can't say I'm surprised. Probably will catch on tomorrow.

Just wondering if by then the forward speed will be too fast to take full advantage of the good environment

Still trying to mix out dry air and organize core so intensification will be gradual till then

NHC now forecasting a cat 4 landfall so guess that answers my question of dry air concerns. Ha

That dry air definitely made it into the COC. Degraded it more than I anticipated. Curious what hurricane hunters will find intensity wise. Wondering when Helene will really take off.

Still a good bit to work out on northern edge of COC. The better environment tonight should help really accelerate things.

Looks like maybe attempting to close off an eyewall finally

Curious what impact this dry air wrapping into circulation now will have on Helene. Can really see it eroding clouds on visible satellite wrapping into the COC. Could lower ceiling a bit if it takes a while to mix out.

How likely do you think that is? I mean it does have Loop Current and great atmospheric conditions tonight. We saw what Ian did overnight even after crossing western Cuba.

Definitely could have impacted it some. Should see Helene really take off later today and tonight.

May stay steady state a bit while it tries to mix out that dry and reorganize its inner core

Has the center passed the Yucatan or could this put it in position to interact with land?

And there it is. Hurricane Helene. 80mph 979mb. Forecasting 125 mph landfall now. I think cat 4 is a decent if not good possibility.

Wonder if that will get into the core and impact organization a while since core is still kind of open and not completely closed off yet

Current motion of this certainly looks like it could pass over Yucatan. Hard to tell but will be very close if it doesn't

Agreed. That's when it could possibly get over loop current and have really good outflow ventilation Satellite appearance would agree. Main thing now is does center go onto Yucatan or stay over water

Quite impressed with how quick it had organized this evening. Satellite appearance looks better each frame. That CDO evolving nicely. Now we need to see this reflected on a radar standpoint with eyewall development.

I agree and once that core is established I think that's when RI intensification phase will start

Satellite really starting to look interesting. Getting nice cyclonic curvature now and convection beginning to wrap more around center instead of on its periphery.

How far off is the COC from that convection right now? Isn't the shear supposed to be dying down now?