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nwohweather

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Everything posted by nwohweather

  1. nwohweather
    As I said earlier it is kind of weird to have such a strong high immediately to the Northeast instead of back to the west. What I do wonder with two of the three conveyor belts being drier air do you guys think it will lead to a colder and drier storm than is currently being modeled? My thoughts are that QPF is going to drop or be less than what is expected because of this
  2. nwohweather
    Kind of wild to see the ridging that enforces the cold air ahead of this thing, should lead to quite a bit of CAD east of the Appalachians. Worries me quite a bit with moisture content, I know it has a solid flow out of the gulf but sucking cold dry air in from the Cold Conveyor Belt has me nervous, that moist air is key to heavy snow totals
  3. nwohweather
    Hmm looks much better. Anything to give me a reason for working from home for a few days I'm here for. Classic 6-10" heavy snow event for this area at this point
  4. nwohweather
    What is unacceptable about it? Reminds me of the line Joe Bastardi of Accuweather used to say, "Enjoy the weather because it's the only one you get." Regardless it is an ENSO neutral winter with temps running a little bit above average, not a solid La Nina delivering clippers like a automotive assembly plant. Wouldn't be shocked if February absolutely roars
  5. nwohweather
    Not shocking after the extended cold seen in November and December that it’s mild from late Dec-mid Jan
  6. nwohweather
    Wild storm. Snowstorm, then sleet, then line of storms followed by a monster front and a nice lake effect event. Weird storm
  7. nwohweather
    It showed much deeper convection on the models than what we are seeing
  8. nwohweather
    This really isn’t that shocking. Huge severe outbreak in the South robbed this thing of a lot of its moisture. I posted a few days ago about how it may rob the cold side of the storm and sure enough that’s what’s happening
  9. nwohweather
    Storm mode was terrible. Throw in VBV and essentially too much forcing and you have a mess of storms and a huge line. That line of storms is massive right now, but hard to get anything other than spin ups along it.
  10. nwohweather
    Yeah this has bust all over it. I may come back to eat my words but messy storm mode is ruining the whole thing as well as clockwise turning with height. If anything I think tomorrow has a better chance with more organization to produce, but this isn’t a very clean outbreak
  11. nwohweather
    You'll know more than I about this but doesn't heavy rain give off quite a bit of latent heat which would then help it turn into a higher percentage of sleet falling as opposed to strictly freezing rain?
  12. nwohweather
    Disagree entirely with so much gulf moisture being pumped into this thing. Unless you believe the LLJ is being overdone, I see no reason to believe that a warm bias would be occurring. I believe the bias you are mentioning has been a warm season bias, not a winter bias. And even then that is because soil moisture affects results
  13. nwohweather
    Really like the Euro and the dry slot it is showing. Also have to take into consideration that a major severe outbreak down south could disrupt moisture transport and lead to slightly lesser totals, especially on the cold side of this low
  14. nwohweather
    Eh it's kinda weird though. Especially with Colorado Low/Panhandle Hook
  15. nwohweather
    Haha we've hit a stalemate weather wise. Spring & Summer and its severe weather/heat waves/flooding keep it more lively
  16. nwohweather
    I had a teacher call it that in college. Basically he called the Cutter a Runner and a Miller B a cutter since it cuts across the GL. So many of these definitions are NE based
  17. nwohweather
    Ahh see I was always taught that was a Great Lakes Runner, similar to the App Runner just farther west. Then you have your Panhandle Hooks, Miller B and Alberta Clipper
  18. nwohweather
    That isn't a cutter
  19. nwohweather
    Honestly thank God we have not had too much snow to this point, if you had a solid snowpack with this storm approaching the flooding would be near record levels, especially in Indiana and Ohio
  20. nwohweather
    Agreed, especially since these tend to come in a little deeper than just about any other low pressure type that affects the region. The icing potential could be staggering however, especially for Indy, Detroit, Toledo, Cleveland and the GTA. Someone is going to get a ton in the freezing rain/sleet department if this pans out
  21. nwohweather
    Ahh looks like a classic Panhandle Hook on the horizon. I'd be pretty happy if I were in Chicago or Milwaukee, other points east are going to be in a much stickier ball game. Also the PWAT's on this look absolutely insane, the moisture rush out of the gulf could lead to an epic ice storm in the battleground. Definitely has the look of a big dog storm
  22. nwohweather
    It's not a cutter folks, a cutter literally slashes in a E-W swath across the area. Your SW-NE swaths are typically panhandle hooks, if it runs up the spine of the Apps it is an App Runner
  23. nwohweather
    This wind is wild. Maybe only 1-2” but it is blowing at 20-30 easy
  24. nwohweather
    Eh the amount of things that went right for April 27th to occur was insane. The instability and shear overlapped was off the charts, and led to 34 separate long track tornadoes rated EF3 or higher and killed 316 people. Also you can add in the whole outbreak as all 4 days had at least 40 tornadoes. March was an awesome anomaly, but that day was shocking because of its impact
  25. nwohweather
    Hmm hard for me to put the March torch above the extreme disasters. April 27th may never happen again honestly
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