nwohweather

It’s a general rule of thumb in my opinion. I think back to my Great Lakes days and the June 2010 outbreak where you had a deepening low spawn one violent tornado and multiple EF-2’s through NW Ohio/SE Michigan around the midnight hour. In fact many of the better tornado outbreaks I’ve lived through were lows going through significant intensification bringing in ample winds aloft and moisture. Also let’s not forget we’re talking about an expected up to 3500 j/kg of energy and SRH’s in the ballpark of 500. That is simply insane

People comparing this to last week need to remember that the low was much weaker than this bad boy. We’ve got a rapidly deepening low expected to go below 990 MB. That is something that in my opinion was really lacking last week. Even here at home we’ve got dews into the mid 60s far from the low

Perfectly said forecast by the SPC. Sure previous convection could ruin it, if it does not then we're looking at a historic afternoon/evening

Jesus this looks like a more southerly positioned version of April 3rd, 1974 on the CAM's

Insane pattern we’re in here folks. After getting 33 tornadoes last week in one day (absolutely a High risk verified) we’re now looking at potentially another in the same spot? Wild

Deaths are way down though. Looking at the numbers last year this time I think that has a lot to do with current attitudes. In places like Michigan, New York, Illinois where deaths were in the hundreds daily last Spring really affected the populace quite a bit in how they view the virus. That never happened in the South which combined with political climate made this area so standoffish towards pandemic rules.

I'll be honest, I've been slightly stunned at the moisture/temps expected in this which gives me actually more confidence than what we had last week. We've had a fishing/camping trip planned for sometime out by Columbia, SC so to see mid to upper 80s this weekend shows the dynamic nature of this system. I know I am certainly a hobbyist in this field but the thing that gives me quite a bit of pause is the strength of the low shown on the Euro. Last week we were dealing with a system at 998 MB I believe at its strongest, while the Euro shows a rapidly deepening low for this week that may very well go sub-990. I'd say the vast majority of outbreaks I've dealt with in the past had this very feature, a strong deepening low sparking off overachieving cells that spawn violent tornadoes.

Yeah I’m over this chilly weather. It is not helping the golf game at all

Got the fireplace rocking today

Man this thread is woke. I for one am disgusted that the 1918 epidemic is referred to as the “Spanish Flu”. What a disgusting comment to those in Spain, how will they get by with such an offense

Definitely a major tornado out over the ocean at the moment...

Agreed but it costs $10 Million for a new one, and $500K a year to maintain. Very expensive technology for sure

Right haha a quick step outside and you can visually see the LLJ absolutely screaming here

Charlotte cell moving into better instability and SRH as it goes east. To be honest it may drop in the city as I'm getting 80 mph winds already per RadarScope in the couplet

Nice updraft on the cell just west of Charlotte. If that thing tightens up could see a potential tornado in a heavily populated area

Nice little CU field back in GA here, sun is now out here as well

Terrible take in my opinion. Massive clearing is unfolding across GA/SC/NC with CAPE surging. We have 60-70 knots of bulk shear, SRH at 200-400 to boot. It would not shock me at all if the atmosphere recovers fully to get 1-2 long track tornadoes this evening

Gonna be interesting here folks. So much shear and helicity in the air, once we get this crapvection out of here that line is for sure going to spark of some storms all across SC/NC

I’m overly bullish on today. Maybe I’ll get egg on my face but around 1-3 today it’s showing solid instability and helicity levels of 200-400 on top of the storms that spark up. 67° in Charleston at the moment

This wasn’t a bust. Not legendary so probably didn’t deserve a high risk, but absolutely lived up to a Moderate risk type event. It’s like forecasting 12” of snow and getting 8”. Sure the foot would’ve been cool but it’s still a lot of snow. I will continue beating the drum that I think tomorrow could wind up being worse. I noticed backing in the hodographs and a possibility of left movers tomorrow definitely increasing the large hail threat. Truthfully it’ll be a perfect day to camp out around Orangeburg and hop on 95 or 26 to chase. I’d be shocked honestly if there is not a violent tornado in SC tomorrow

The bust talk is a bit extreme, although I’m shocked Mississippi didn’t get a little more as the main show today has definitely been Alabama. Atmosphere is too worked over at the moment across the Mid South for this to really take off tonight in my opinion. Still it’s been one hell of an afternoon. And truthfully I think tomorrow in the Carolina’s offers a potentially bigger threat than today to be honest

This could be big dog of the day. Cell has little around it compared to other ones

Man I was just in Birmingham/Fairfield for a business trip. That tornado is going to go through some solidly populated areas

Tomorrow looks very interesting, especially if these storms today put a nice boundary down in the morning. Wedge has lifted in Charleston, sunny and 70 now. Looks like a solid two day outbreak here folks

I feel like I'm watching ESPN debating MJ vs Lebron for the 1,000,000th time seeing all the comparisons to April 27 on here. That being said, surface based CAPE across the region at the moment is insane for 11:30 AM. This atmosphere is so ripe, looks like a classic multi-round tornado event today.