nwohweather

I'm going full broken record here, but the models never really showed a full change over in Toledo until around 1-2. IMO everyone is jumping the gun here on lowering totals including the TV stations. Reports out of IL/IN are pretty convincing

I know some were upset but come on, I’d rather have repairs now than during a severe weather event

Snowing now in Adrian now, with mixing beginning at Toledo Express as well

Looking at the radar and current conditions it looks like along a line from Angola, IN to Hillsdale, MI has transitioned to snow. Modeling showed this almost perfectly, Toledo was not supposed to be all snow until around 1-2 PM with potential mixing really until rush hour. I'd feel very confident looking at the radar and previous results off to the west already in the 10-18" predictions. I will add it's a shame LE is out of play but that lake is pretty frozen over now. Could get some really high rates on Thursday if this were not the case

Way too much panicking & model hugging folks. It's a long duration snowstorm, not a derecho or supercell that's going to pass by in the next 15 minutes

Everything at the moment looks pretty on track I’d say. In fact the orientation of the rain/snow line and position is almost exactly what the Euro was showing yesterday. Hell I don’t expect Toledo to be completely snow until rush hour today honestly, Detroit until probably lunch time

Lol right? Nothing will top Hawaii’s false alarm though

And this is literally completely an outlying area

Sheesh. It's almost hard amongst all the discussion to really grasp what 12-20" will do to this region. Everything is just so open and flat across NE IN/NW Ohio. To combine that with what will be a more powdery snow on Thursday & gusty winds into Friday, this part of the country is going to be absolutely shut down for days. I think drifts approaching 10' in some spots is not out of the question

Yeah I have not really looked in at the Tennessee Valley forum, but this has all the hallmarks of a crippling ice event along the Mississippi & Ohio Rivers

Sounds like something my urologist would tell me

As of now this looks like an entirely incorrect statement

Good heavens… ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Blowing snow developing Thursday with dangerous travel expected. Total snow accumulations 10 to 20 inches. * WHERE...Portions of northern Indiana and northwest Ohio. * WHEN...From 5 AM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel will become very difficult to impossible. Blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions will affect Wednesday and Thursday commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will change to snow from northwest to southeast late tonight and early Wednesday morning. This will be a long duration snow event, with periods of moderate to heavy snow and reduced visibilities.

I will say, the wishcasting here doesn’t compare to what I see in the SE threads. All those are is everybody hugging hi-res models over a random band dropping 3-5”

Both my old stomping grounds of Toledo & Marysville look to cash in nicely here. Glad to see it! I’ll be following ODOT cams eagerly while sitting on my sunny porch in shorts here

I think 3-6" is a pretty safe bet on Wednesday, however this thing being pushed a bit east helps make 4-8" more likely. Still, I'm as confident as you can be that NW Ohio will see 8-16" on Thursday

Oh I am on Wednesday for sure. It'll take a second for the front to pass and the column to completely cool

Obviously mixing will cut down some of these absurd numbers a bit, but still this is a pretty insane to see so close to the event. Just for context, Toledo averages 37" of snow a year & Findlay gets 25". This storm at a likely 3-6" Wednesday and 8-16" on Thursday could drop over half season's worth in 36 hours. Also lets not forget, the backside of this is going to drop air temps into potentially the negative double digits on Friday

I really don't see it. This isn't some deep, big low pressure barreling through the Great Lakes region. It's a double wave gulf system with tons of moisture fighting against a strong High pressure of to its west. If anything this is going to go east on future model runs in my opinion. I really think though this is going to be a dangerous situation on Wednesday night into Thursday as that pressure gradient is going to create almost impossible travel conditions with that wind, and you're going to have extremely cold temperatures behind it. I feel very confident in a 10-20" call for NW Ohio though

Bengals headed to the Super Bowl and NW Ohio looking at 10-16” per the Euro right now? End is near for sure

Damn, that high pressure tells everyone I’m gonna take the W here

I always say with the weather “What goes up, must come down” and I figured the extremely above average December would be followed by a below average January. But this is insane, almost a 2013-14 type pattern just lighting up the Eastern US at the moment. New England gets buried this weekend, and the Great Lakes gets buried next week

Imagine expecting the Euro to cave towards the GFS. I will say typically in general these lows book it for Chicago/Detroit but only time will tell. Sort of a weird storm in just how drawn out it is, 36 hours of legit snow at this time

I suggest you read up on that storm. Drifts were up to 20’, winds gusted to 60 mph, barometric pressure bottomed out around 956 MB. No one really knows how much snow either because of the wind

Amazing to see these model runs. If I’m not mistaken in 2009 we received a similar storm that was a 1’ of long drawn out snow. To see the Euro pumping out 15-25” across NW Ohio with isolated amounts of 30” is almost incomprehensible