Talk about some serious overrunning. Temps pushing 70° in Cincy while Toledo is around 40° cooler, some serious accretion could occur across the lower Great Lakes
Moving back from being the deep South for a few years it really is shocking to see the pure lack of cold, especially with so many dynamic systems coming through. East of the Rockies you've got an active pattern still in place with this next system which should be solid for WI/IA/Northern MI and then that cutoff low that should hit East TN/West NC pretty good. But such a limited scope of snowfall for such an active pattern
Interesting graphic, shows how the storm pattern has been entirely like that all winter. Just nothing but Colorado lows and Gulf lows. I can’t even think of a single Alberta clipper to this point to slowly pad the stats
I appreciate this post. So many times it seems like people expect winters of 2013-14 to be a common theme but then get upset by the variability in what is arguably one of the most topsy turvy climates you can find. The average high here in Toledo is 53° degrees warmer in July than in January, that's an absolutely insane stat to think about compared to most places
With how dynamic this system is and the lack of wind, I doubt we see below 10:1. If anything looking at the HRRR compared to the NAM it looks like convective robbery happening from the thunderstorms in the south. You can see how the storm sort of "dries" out substantially on the HRRR
Definitely an active pattern no matter how you slice it, just a parade of low pressures there. Looks like another solid severe weather even possible for the Mid South as well
Yeah it's definitely going to be a nowcast for parts of Ohio, comparing the Euro to the NAM at 00z Thu there's about a 100 mile difference. NAM has the low around Bowling Green, OH while the Euro places it east of Cleveland.
"With that, have passed on any headline issuance for now to avoid any snow hype that may end up falling short of expectations". So I would say they're afraid to overhype it
Looks like we've got a little standoff between Northern IN and Cleveland with CLE saying IWX is overhyping it. I'll be honest I'm a little more conservative than most when it comes to snowfall totals but sheesh when models verbatim are showing 6-8" at Hour 66-72 going against a watch is banking heavily on a NW trend towards the GFS.
Gonna go with a solid 4-8” for the entire NW Ohio region on this next storm. Winds shouldn’t be too bad and with temps around freezing I’d expect a pretty wet snow. Still, this is a money type of track for the area usually
Why? A gulf low running up to along the Ohio River is a historically great track for the lower Great Lakes in general before transferring off the coast.