LongBeachSurfFreak
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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak
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Let’s see if we can get a legit wind event. It’s been a while as many recent events have underperformed.
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True, it’s going to be a battle between forcing if this pans out. You can get some wide spread snows with that. Starting in the Midwest and moving all the way to the east coast.
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We don’t want to go too overboard or it’s suppression depression.
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Exactly, I’m not sure what the obsession is with a -nao. It’s far from the most important driver for snow. We have seen Plenty of -nao wasted due to lack of available cold. And when they are too strong they often favor the mid Atlantic and we smoke cirrus. The old saying goes show me the cold I’ll show you the snow for a reason. back in the 1800s nyc would see wall to wall snow coverage from late November to March even during average snow seasons (approximately 35” at the time)
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Until we fully develop quantum computing its impossible to handle the amount of calculations necessary to handle long range forecasting. I’m sure we will get there one day, but that’s decades away. Heat island was in full effect this morning, icy car when I left Lynbrook for work at 5, almost feels warm in the city in comparison.
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It’s still early for us to be looking for snow. Though that early December period historically has had some good events. But up north is prime time. Hopefully this doesn’t turn into an early grinch storm
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Excellent. We don’t need a 970 inland runner melting all the snow that fell up north. Great early start to the ski season. I’d be up but have work obligations.
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Exactly, If It was September different story. The broad nature of the system means slow strengthening at best. This is a cat 1. Tops
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The dead trees will not be an issue for a couple years until they start to rot. We actually need the rain again. The growing season is still in full swing here on the uws and I have plants dying do to lack of water again but can’t bring myself to water
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60mph is right on the cusp of causing issues on the south shore. It’s really when you get Above 70mph. There are so few trees left. I think this ends up being more run of the mill 40/50mph gusts type deal.
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Absolutely one of the most boring runs of weather we have ever seen. Hopefully just a fluke and not a sign of a 01/02 style winter incoming .
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It’s always been a risky place to host a World Cup event so early despite their excellent snow making. Think where else in the world your racing at 3500-2000’, it’s usually at least 6,000’+. What is worrying me about this winter is the drought coming back. We are back in that low precip pattern again. And seeing 01/02 used as an analog isn’t very comforting. .
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While most of this is correct it’s more like .75% of the words fresh water. 75% would be Antarctica. Looks like the early ski season is going to suck. We need a flip late month. We can have a cold snowy winter and Europe a warm winter. .
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Long Island is about to get smoked. Good drought busting rains .
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Central & Eastern Pacific Thread
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to Windspeed's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Perfect cat 4 micro cane based on current satellite . -
I have an extensive tropical garden here on campus on the uws and everything is fine. I’m talking actual tropical plants too. I was a little worried the low dews and wind might bother them but we should go deep into November before I dig them up and pot them and give them out to professors for their offices over the winter. I’ll call it adopt a plant. .
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Pretty bullish considering the long range. But hey, they provide a service for the hardcore ski/ride community. .
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That’s always been my issue with the way we classify storms. It shouldn’t be based solely on winds. Ian currently has the surge potential of a normal cat 2 based on IKE, this will be a major disaster for SC. I think it makes a run for costliest hurricane of all time .
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Can someone link it? I don’t have it saved. Ian definitely build a nice surge on its north side based on buoy readings I have been looking at. That easterly fetch with the high pressure gradient is a very rare setup this far south. Something more like you would see in New England during some of the classic nor’easters. Sc is going to be another major damage area. As JM and I have noted as we both lived in Long Beach Ny, salt water flooding in itself is a disaster as you need to gut down to the studs to properly repair .
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Exactly, I have a bachelor party in MTK. If it’s going to be ruined let’s get a good soaking. It’s certainly on the table. But I could see a feb 5-6 10 situation as well .
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I’m sure it will somehow find a way on the south shore. This isn’t a lock yet. .
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I think this has a shot at eclipsing Katrina for the most outlying Us hurricane. Naples Alone is a very wealthy area. All the homes with salt water flooding need to be gutted. .
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Water temps in the high 80s will do that. It’s a new era. Allot of the it’s Florida we know hurricanes crowd is in for a big surprise .
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Completion is unlikely with land interaction and shear. A larger wind field will increase surge issues as IKE increases though. So it’s a double edged sword. .
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Exactly. This is similar to what we saw with Katrina and more recently Fiona. When a storm is moving the same direction for an extended period of time, you have captured fetch. Where the storm caries with it, it’s enhanced sea state. And it’s moving over the warmest waters in the basin currently. We may have a true beast on our hands this time tomorrow .
