jayyy

Yes PSU and W MD crowd... majority of the storm may miss you to the south. You’re still fully aware you’ll see a 0.2-0.4” qpf burst at the jump with very high ratios which will land you as much snow as everyone else.

I honestly hope you aren’t this miserable in all facets of your life, Ji.... my god. 3-6” area wide with ratios is the consensus so far today. Particularly for the DC crowd. ILL SURE AS HECK TAKE IT to kick off a prime winter pattern. Potentially the best prolonged setup we’ve seen in a few winters in these parts. Not every storm has to be a KU. Well have plenty of chances for those through mid February. That being said... anybody who is writing off a storm like this 3 days out with the jackpot one state south of the majority of us in VA, is a damn fool. If you’d rather be in the jackpot at this stage in the game with such a complex 500 h5 setup, you’re also a fool.

about to get NAM’d..... we’re nearly 4 days out. Having the storm bullseye VA is perfectly OK guys!

We will continue to see things waffle between now and tomorrow night. 00z Thursday night we will really begin to hone in on a consensus. 6z gets far less data, and the GFS particularly is almost always not amped enough versus the 00z run from the night before. How many times have we said “oh look 6z gfs takes away storm” just to see it come back on the 12z? Lets breathe guys.

6z gfs 4 days out and Ji is crying that it won’t snow. Hahaha give me a break man. I’ve never seen so many people live and die by each model run on every single model. The pattern is RIPE for a storm. The ingredients are all there and we’ve made major improvements at h5 since 2 nights ago. Things are going in the right direction in a big way.

NAM clown maps anyone? For poops and giggles !

Holy NAM, 18 Euro, EPS and GEFS bat man!!! 4-6” looking likely on these runs, with lollipop 8-10” amounts inland away from DC Baltimore and Richmond. That SW feature is much more pronounced this evening and the suppressive look in Canada has relaxed. That 1040 high in place before the storm is a wet dream come true hahahah

Lmao! Dark Sky must solely rely on the GFS. It has 8-13” of snow with heavy snow almost all day for Sunday for the Ellicott City area. #pipedream #DamnYouNS

Mountains in SW VA, S WV, E TN, Western NC will definitely see 18”. Maybe 2 feet. That precip shield is huge. The models definitely got one thing wrong... QPF totals and expansive nature of the shield. It may be my weenie eyes... but the precip isn’t necessarily moving W to E. Looks to still be making a NE trek. Would love to see even an hour or two of flakes! It certainly feels like a storm is brewing outside.

Still could be a small hit for DC. Models are just models, sir. They are wrong and wrong often. 150 miles too far SE wrong? Not typically but it can certainly happen. Especially with a southern slider in east December. We needed this storm to either speed up or slow down a little bit to allow things to align better. Timing is literally perfect for screwing us over. Come on Canadian vort!!!! Move the **** back north.

SREF paints 2-4” through dc proper, especially points south.

Woah... 6z nam went pretty far north! DC is pretty damn close to seeing something appreciable. Come on baby... just a few more bumps north and central md is in on the action too Ugh. This is going to be so depressing to watch glide south of us. It’ll even appear as if it’s coming straight toward us and then will hit a giant wall of dry air. 6z nam eases up on the vort so the storm is able to track to a higher latitude. Hopefully 00z nam tonight shows another big shift agree with the observation that models have been weakening this storm for a few runs now. The northern feature never catches up and things remain flat at h5.

Could this be a Nowcast event!? Could the CMC be right? Probably not.... but it’s possible. DC still has a shot at 2-4 if things go right and we see a broader / slightly north precipitation shield. Not discounting anything quite yet. It’s been trending ever so slightly north. We are definitely not seeing warning shows, but I won’t discount advisory snowfall until the storm comes and goes. Wouldn’t be the first or last time models were wrong.

Check HIS RES models for trends at this juncture to sniff out northern trends. Gfs won’t budge until it’s within 24. If NAM isn’t going north, were in trouble.

7-9” currently. Could bust and go high though - charottesville, not centerville

Anyone have any snow rituals? Inside out pajamas? Eating meatballs or a particular food? I know some of you are superstitious! PS - Appreciate the up to the minute 18z suite updates ladies and gents. Would be nice to see a larger shift in the look at h5 / 500 mb, but the trend is there. I simply do not buy how overwhelming the confluence is being modeled by the globals right now. This air mass should be on its way out come Monday, not in. 00z tonight should be interesting to say the least. Hope to see excitement on here and not people jumping off the ledge over missing out on snowfall in the first 1/3 of December.

Wishcasting? I’m a meteorologist. I don’t wish cast or base my forecasts or predictions on outcomes I’d “like to see” I, unlike most, look at the upper air pattern, h5, 500 mb to get an idea on where this storm could go. Stop looking at surface outputs and clown maps. If you’re already counting us out, you have zero understanding of meteorology and are doing the opposite of “wishcasting”.

NAM and JMA move north. TREND BABY

Come on baby... that vort needs to move east from western Canada so that we can get some decent data from it. We are SO close. Just need some sharper digging on the SW flank, and a less pronounced vort come Sunday.

Confluence is retreating / a tad weaker so far in the 12z suite on the GFS NAM and ICON. (12 and 0z are the only that actually count at this point as they receive much more data than off hour runs) Solid start to the suite. Long way to go. Keep in mind, there will be a ton of players on the field for this storm and majority of them are still offshore, including the main system in question. If this trend continues at 0z, we are still in the game. Time is, however, getting short.

Still hope for the 95 corridor (Dc - BAL) I would really like to see those 2 pieces of energy in Canada retreat north or delay on 0z tonight or we may be hoping for flurries on Monday. Suppresion in early DECEMBER? Son of a ....

Trend was our friend tonight. Let’s not obsess over clown maps and QPF outputs. Those will change 5x a day. The upper air pattern is looking much more favorable tonight on the GFS. Modeled Confluence does not match northern extend of the low or precip. The likelihood of southern suppression is low given the PV position and strength. HUGE improvements tonight where it matters. Surface outputs will catch up in the upcoming days. VA still may be the jackpot zone, but do NOT rule out Maryland and Delaware just yet. Significant snow, IMO, is coming for someone within 50 miles of DC.

Good to see the storm to our south at this juncture. Expect a jog north without much confluence to block the storm from coming north. If we are still shooting blanks come Thursday 00z, id worry. We’re still 6 days out. No need to be worrying quite yet. At this point, we just need to be looking at the 500 mb pattern and teleconnections. The rest will get nailed down as we get closer. Storm is coming. That’s what’s most important at this point. That being said... DC May finally be in a better position than Baltimore for this one.

Why are we Discussing exact placement of 850 0c lines, rain snow lines, etc 8+ days out? Let’s focus on the teleconnections, the placement of the jet stream, blocking and snow cover in eastern Canada etc. The finer details will come into sight as we get closer. At this point, a storm being in the area is looking likely. But let’s not bite too early. It’s still possible the storm hits the interior northeast, or the opposite, it slides to our south. The setup is iffy and I’d like to see this improve at h5 850 700 before getting excited. Until then, it’s looking more likely that a snowstorm hits for Hoffman and company with snow to a change over for the 95 corridor than a significant area wide snow event. That being said... we’ve got a long way to go and the potential is still absolutely there for the entire Baltimore DC corridor to see appreciable snow. By the way.. thanks for having me everyone. Love this board. After I received my meteorology degree, I ended up changing careers and work for Apple. However, it’s great to have a place to channel my inner weather geek!

We’re not even through November and most have seen snowfall (some have seen significant snowfall) and it’s been in the 30s and cold for nearly a week. We will certainly be well under average for the month. The fact that people are panicking because a storm may be rain or mix before winter even begins is ridiculous. Patience guys. Patience. The first storm in December will likely not be a snow maker. The second, however, likely will be as we will have blocking and a -AO.