jayyy

PS... always good to watch reports out west.. reports of over a foot in missouri. The storm is packing a huge punch and is expansive.

That being said... if 12z nam shows another shellacking with support from current OBS, they need to move warnings north. 25 degrees here in Howard county, humidity 66%, and dew is 16... still have room for temps to fall as column cools down from precip. Going to be an amazing scene out there tonight. Dark sky has 4-8” in my local forecast.

ICON continues wet runs and north trend. NAM RGEM and GEFS support it. Euro as well. Were locked in guys!

2-4 for you.

ICON/NAM/GFS/FV3/Rgem all show Baltimore to DC 3-6+” its time to nowcast ladies

And of course...especially for the northern half of the CWA... ratios will likely be better than progged. PSUhoffman and company will be posting the old “it snowed only 0.3” QPF liquid equivalent and we have 5” posts. Because of this I think DC and Baltimore proper see very similar totals, despite BAL seeing slightly less QPF. 10:1 ratios vs 12:1 or so. Again... the things to watch for... game day bump north with the storm (25 mile shift north can’t be ruled out), a juicier than progged radar (which looks very robust around Missouri, Indiana, etc 8 inches of snow and counting in St. Louis so far) and last but not least, MAYBE the coastal getting going earlier. A lot to iron out while we are in game time. Here’s to hoping something finally goes our way.

If anything, it’ll hurt those in the SSW quadrant of the storm, and help those on the NE flank if a coastal gets going earlier and is more amped than progged. Earlier development = quicker the energy transfers and pivots everything.. something to be watched, but doesn’t have a ton of model support. A few ensemble runs here and there. Can’t rule it out though. We are SO close.

NAMed! Lmao. Wow. Overdone no doubt unless the coastal gets going over us. 6z is always too amped... and we shouldn’t be model hugging at this point. Particularly not the euro, gfs. NAM is almost out of range too. RAPP is always a good call as we get close to kickoff. But hey... now all we need is that game time 25 mile shift north and we’re golden here in central md

You guys know hugging qpf maps is the most novice thing a snow weenie could do right? Jesus. Check for track, 500 mb setup, temps, etc... but hanging your head on “oh it showed 0.4 of qpf, now 0.3” is ludicrous. If you want to use models for QPF, use the RAPP when the time comes (short term). Looking good for a solid moderate event for the entire BAL DC NOVA corridor. S PA will see great ratios and will get the inevitable ccb band just south of the convergence zone. Wait and see time....

Euro showing 5” near Baltimore 7-8” near dc. Nam shows 6-8 for both. RGEM the same. FV3 shows 4-7”. I’d say we’re locked in. I do understand why they haven’t expanded warnings. It’s on the cusp. 00z tonight trends even stronger and maybe we have a shot at one.

It’ll make a straight line between Rockville and Ellicott City and sit in place for the storms durations. Of course.

Can we just go with a GFS/NAM blend and call it a day? Not too greedy of a request, and a nice snowfall for almost all! Trying not to let the NAM and RGEM get me too amped up, as they are notoriously too wet. GFS, however, is always dry and too flat / SE with shortwaves. A happy medium would do nicely.

NAM/RGEM show warning snows for dc and all of central / southern MD. GFS members and Euro show advisory level for most with warning level south. Solid trend. Imagine 00z ticks just a hair more north.... OH dill

108 to 103 deathband!!! Almost game time boys.

Looks like NWS is thinking 3-5 for dc Montgomery Howard counties. 2-4 for Baltimore and points NNE. Bullseye in NOVA. however... if 18z continues north, I’d bump totals a smidge

Guess we’ll find out! I still think the eastern half of maryland has a shot at the coastal as well

Good lord. I think watches are needed farther north.

Trend is our friend ladies. RGEM/FV3 onto something? Other models seem to be moving toward them, not away.

Rgem has been consistent. Most models trending our way. Good runs so far this am

I think anybody between dc and Baltimore will do just find knowing model bias to be too weak / south. WAA is always more robust, temps are always lower than progged and the low is always father north. I’d say 9/10 times this is the case.

Except for the strong confluence in New England and a mainly west to east 500 mb setup

I think coastal SE NJ and Delaware has a shot at heavy banding making it on shore from the coastal, especially if this trend continues. Not looking great for inland areas north of the del memorial.

25 mile shift north incoming?? 500 looks better on the NAMerama

Climo always wins. Ratios will help the northern Md, PSU crowd catch up despite lower QPF totals. In fact, unless dc sees heavy CCB, I’d bet PSUhoffman sees more snow than the White House lawn because of elevation and overall climo. Looking good for 3-5” area wide after that 6z suite for anybody south of the PA MD border. Hoping 12z continues the north / more amped trend

Called this last night as I went to bed... 6z will bump precip. No surprise here. Question is are the models adjusting? Or are they pulling one over on us and 12z brings us back to reality? if this trend continues, maybe we can eek out 5”+ for majority of the cwa