jayyy

Light snow in EC. Looks like we may be all snow today versus the rain to snow we were seeing on some models ill be thrilled with 2” or so from a frontal passage. Anything more is just a bonus.

Wait for tomorrow to come and go before leaning either way on Friday’s potential..... come on... let’s learn a lesson for once, shall we? Equal chance we see 2-3 than we see 0” on Friday. We need to know what tomorrow’s energy does, how strong it gets, and how it affects 500 mb pattern overall as Friday approaches. H5 and 500 show potential on gfs and fv3... with light snows. that’s all we need to see at this point. Relax on the details.

Burst of snow in Columbia! Beautiful out there. More important, how strong does this storm get when it hits water and where does it track? It has an effect on our future rainstorm.

Come on 6z nam ... continue the trend. Don’t do your usual thing and amp this thing up.

A track like that which goes south of us to ocean city, and a more strung out low, is exactly what we need to keep cold air in place and limit warm air from surging ahead of the low aka for it to snow. Literally the only solution that we could squeak a decent snowstorm out of. Especially for the Baltimore area Unlikely to occur...as it’s a lonely outlier, but hell, ya never know... maybe, like last weekend, it is sniffing out a trend early and we see 6z Globals trend that way. GFS, Euro, GGEM, and UKMET all shifted SE tonight. Now.. we just need it to go south another 75 miles and we’re talkin!

UKMET or bust I’ll take that 6-8” it shows and run LOL

False. Back end changeovers rarely happen. Front end WAA thumps before the CAD erodes happen here frequently. Christmas 01 I believe is like the only major back end thump I can think of and I was in New York for it. Driving rain to 13” of snow on the back end in 6 hours time. A rarity indeed.

We about to get long range NAM’d?!

Still plenty of time. Only thing holding back my excitement for Baltimore and northern part of the forum is the trend this year has been to go north, not south. But.. hell, I’ll take one reversal for this storm!

Yep. I imagine the mods aren’t trying to make a third post for the same storm due to people jumping off the cliff a few days after most of us received warning level snowfall. I know, not everybody did, but the rate of weenie suicide on this board is asisnine. Love everybody here! We just get a bit.... emotional.

^ yep. Trend is our friend currently. And please people, do not freak out if today still shows an ice or rain event. As long as it continues to show a flatter solution and less phasing than yesterday, and especially if the western ridge pushes east and the high up north is positioned better in New England instead of the plains, we could still be in the game.

6z will be whacky again. Extremely amped I assume, per usual. I am however intruiged to see if 12z tomorrow continues the trend of moving the western ridge east and less interaction between the jet streams. Ideally, the shortwave never ejects from the southwest and we see another southern slider like last weekend. as bob said, a late partial phase would be ok too.

I feel like a broken record... stop writing off storms 3+ days out guys. SERIOUSLY. Models had 1-2” for us last Wednesday for the weekend storm. We’re not even close to being out of the game. Two Rules of thumb... 1) if all of the pieces aren’t on the coastal plain yet, models likely have zero clue what to do with themselves. 2) never discount a storm when there’s still a storm to pass before it. Models need to see what the leading storm does (strength, track, how it effects the jet stream and overall 500 mb look) How often do models underdo the cold shot after a storm passes by? How often do models not pick up the fact that a leading storm has suppressed the flow for a second storm? How often do models depict a high pressure coming in “too late”, just to trend right as we get closer? Tonight’s trends went WILDLY in the right direction. Gfs trended from having 52 and rain to 35 degrees for the same timeframe (6z Sunday) in Baltimore proper. EC went from having a few inches in PA, to dumping a foot plus to the MD/PA border. HUGE improvements and a long way to go. Baltimore and points north still have a 25% chance in my eyes of seeing significant snowfall. More like 15% for DC and points south.

By the way... fellow HoCo residents... that band to our north is about to pivot ESE toward the ocean. Snow is picking back up. Again. Need 0.5” to hit a foot.

Everything shifted north, as myself and many others warned could happen with this setup. Stinks for that area. Not complaining here in MD however.

Sinking air to the east as a result of of intense rising air to your west. The storm’s location never allowed for the bands to pivot east. No worries. Well all hopefully cash in this weekend!!

GFS from this evening for this weekend BTW... hahaha. Wow

This is INSANE to me. I 70 was like a brick wall. Reports of 10-12” all around ec, Columbia, etc And reports of 4-6” in NW Baltimore county. What a crazy gradient.

Ellicott City here as well near 108. Confirmed 11.25” of snow

Normal that people right outside intense bands see flurries as it dumps a few miles away. Intense lifting means sinking air outside the band. What may look like a snowy radar may produce not much in reality. We got lucky here in HoCo and MoCo. 11”

Yes. Howard county.

Double digits baby. Still dumping

Woooow

70 is definitely the cut off. Glad I live south of it for once lol! PS- that death band is STILL moving north, not ESE... wtf is going on?! More bands blossoming to our south and heading this way as well. This thing eventually has to rotate out, which means that band could come back overhead

You’re likely over 9 now with this band. Columbia EC Clarksburg are getting hammered