jayyy

It’s actually quite possible this pans out. You’re being pessimistic, and rightfully so. But this solution has plenty of support

It’s Sunday. The coastal forms and explodes tomorrow into early Tuesday morning. The radar we see now has zero to do with the way the radar will look tomorrow.

Think it’s going to be really close for you and places like Howard county. It all comes down to the SW extend of the CCB. Could very well see 6” in Rockville and SW HoCo and 12” in the ellicott city / Catonsville Baltimore area as the euro depicts here. We need the storm to form a bit south and tuck so the storm is able to rotate precip into SW portions of the CWA. BWI could double up on DCA.

I actually think this is the most likely outcome here if things align correctly with the coastal. There’s plenty of room for heavy snow to make its way into eastern half of Maryland with the CCB, including Baltimore city.

Best snow of the day so far. Nice band running the northern counties along the MD/PA border.

Just patiently waiting to see the pressure falls maps off the east coast.

17” for Baltimore city ain’t bad either. You can really see how close we are on the development of this storm to getting a biggie here. The timing is JUST off. Could models be wrong and things work out in our favor? Unlikely, but god damn to me, it seems worth watching man. Especially for my area.

Rgem was really the only model that showed a giant wall of snow (going from cloudy skies to 1” per hour rates within minutes) Most other models showed 3-6” from the WAA occurring over a 12+ hour period w/ the most snowfall falling in the higher elevations of SWVA.... this is pretty much in line with what’s happening on the ground. Problem is people call it a “WAA thump” and expect heavy snow. It was never going to be a thump. Our biggest task today will be checking out the pressure fall maps off the east coast to can get an idea of where this transfer will begin to happen. Literally 50 miles south of the GFS and we are in a much different ball game for part 2 area wide. 12z GFS actually, to me, leaves the door open for improvement by tomorrow. We are so close to a 12+ snowstorm area wide with that look, it just all comes together a hair too late

We know.

Ellicott city seeing some fatties

I think his point is... who’s to say the low won’t actually transfer a touch further south and that models are wrong about what they show right now? I understand the question - but, as someone said, models gets better as we get closer, not worse. There’s also simply not enough confluence to our N to push this thing further south. Models have been weakening the Confluence slowly but surely for days. Meanwhile, it’s only 17 degrees at my parents house in Rockland county NY leading up to this. Pretty Unreal. 1.5” of QPF headed their way with 12:1+ ratios for sure.

More goes into play here than surface low location. We need h5/h7 to have proper passage, and we need the trough to have a correct tilt. Without these things, there’s no precip shield building on the W flank of the storm. Everything gets firehosed to the NW of the storm into NJ and NYC. We’re caught between 2 storms. Again.

I’m sure someone with more knowledge can easily explain how both parts can end up screwing us

Don’t worry guys - all we need is the coastal to pop way further south than progged, bomb out, and for all models to be wrong. What could possibly go wrong? For Baltimore metro and points NNE, I haven’t quite lost all hope on the coastal yet. Won’t take much to get solid banding into NE sections of the CWA. But man... it’s looking bleak for DC, most of Maryland, and VA for anything too substantial from part 2. unreal.

Snowing... decently I suppose.

And just like that, NWS upped the totals for my folks in NY to 14-18+ - I just told them I hate them so much in the most loving way possible. I KNEW this had New York and New England special written all over it. Been saying it all week long. I should have trusted my gut and I got bit for it.

You know the drill. 6z will show 12-18 area wide just to show 3-6 at 12z.

This storm has 12+ written all over it for my hometown in NY. Seen this song and dance sooooo many times.

When’s our next model drop

Just told my parents who are located near the Mario cuomo bridge in NY to get ready for a big dog.

NAM has been super consistent. Can’t discount it, as much as we’d like to. WAA looks dope though.

@clskinsfan and @psuhoffman , you guys ready for that 15:1 ratio snowfall tomorrow AM? Have a good feeling about the ratios to start.

Woooo - temps still dropping nicely. union bridge weather station - 2.5 miles south of me: 21.4 Temp 16.7 DP Winds from the NE Pressure: 30.01 Elevation: 473 ft

My buddy in Lexington KY said that there was barely any virga before the sky began puking. Radar looks fantastic for WAA tomorrow

Exactly. Listen to bob everyone. Stop leaning on models, especially the euro, for meso placement. We won’t know until it’s happening. That’s just factual. All you’re doing is chasing digital snow otherwise. We are seeing exactly what we want to be seeing at this juncture. The SLP transfer location is splendid. All models show 6+ area wide and we are less than 12 hours from first flakes. LETS GET THIS