jayyy

https://ibb.co/R4hVNY5 Ton of convection popping up off the Carolinas. Coastal’s getting its act together

I grew up right over the border in Rockland county NY. 10 mins north of Bergen County NJ. NNJ into the lower Hudson valley into SW CT and coastal RI / MA always jack on these storms. Always. Someone in the higher elevations of NWNJ will see 30” I bet

Seeing a few mets saying NWS and others are getting too jumpy with their changes in forecasts. Miller b’s do come with one thing - the element of surprise. There’s 0 way to know or model where this CCB sets up or how quickly the coastal gets going. We’re going to have to be patient. Still Have a good feeling about the area from I-70 north and north east come tomorrow.

Ninja’d me!

Steve D sticking with his totals. We shall see.

Developing off NC as we speak. Solid start. The key is what does it do from there and how quickly does it get its act together.

Icon can eat my shorts. It’s prob right though.

Told my parents that they should be on the lookout Monday night into Tuesday. I suspect someone between Nyack NY and Ashbury Park NJ will get a foot in 3-4 hours.

Secondary forming off the NC Coastline. I mean... it’s so damn close. So close to being what we need.

You’re over in the Columbia area right? My brother said he’s got 2.75” in ellicott city, so that lines up well.

Show me or shut up haha I kid - but seriously

My folks were just upgraded to 18-24 in their Wsw. Never a good sign for us down here.

Was gonna say..... the evolution is nowhere near the same as 2016. That thing was a monster that tracked out of the south East and up the coastline.

Also... pressures dropping the fastest off NC. Could be signs of a further south transfer. Been refreshing the 3 hour pressure change map all day

Check out the last frame of the radar. Precip beginning to fill in between the two main batches of precipitation. Exactly what we need to see. Let’s get those easterlies rocking off VA

Yep. And the forecasted placement of this coastal low is REAL close to where we need it to be for this CCB to become a reality. I understand people’s pessimism, but we are 90% of the way there to having this verify. We just need a few things to happen. Keep positive all!

It’s actually quite possible this pans out. You’re being pessimistic, and rightfully so. But this solution has plenty of support

It’s Sunday. The coastal forms and explodes tomorrow into early Tuesday morning. The radar we see now has zero to do with the way the radar will look tomorrow.

Think it’s going to be really close for you and places like Howard county. It all comes down to the SW extend of the CCB. Could very well see 6” in Rockville and SW HoCo and 12” in the ellicott city / Catonsville Baltimore area as the euro depicts here. We need the storm to form a bit south and tuck so the storm is able to rotate precip into SW portions of the CWA. BWI could double up on DCA.

I actually think this is the most likely outcome here if things align correctly with the coastal. There’s plenty of room for heavy snow to make its way into eastern half of Maryland with the CCB, including Baltimore city.

Best snow of the day so far. Nice band running the northern counties along the MD/PA border.

Just patiently waiting to see the pressure falls maps off the east coast.

17” for Baltimore city ain’t bad either. You can really see how close we are on the development of this storm to getting a biggie here. The timing is JUST off. Could models be wrong and things work out in our favor? Unlikely, but god damn to me, it seems worth watching man. Especially for my area.

Rgem was really the only model that showed a giant wall of snow (going from cloudy skies to 1” per hour rates within minutes) Most other models showed 3-6” from the WAA occurring over a 12+ hour period w/ the most snowfall falling in the higher elevations of SWVA.... this is pretty much in line with what’s happening on the ground. Problem is people call it a “WAA thump” and expect heavy snow. It was never going to be a thump. Our biggest task today will be checking out the pressure fall maps off the east coast to can get an idea of where this transfer will begin to happen. Literally 50 miles south of the GFS and we are in a much different ball game for part 2 area wide. 12z GFS actually, to me, leaves the door open for improvement by tomorrow. We are so close to a 12+ snowstorm area wide with that look, it just all comes together a hair too late

We know.