jayyy

So, if it doesn’t amp, do you predict it goes south?

Yuuuuuge shift. NAM, GFS, GEFS Ukie and euro all made huge shifts in the past 24 hr. Haven’t seen models jump quite like that in a good while.

For sure. think it’s more than just the front location though. The systems also trending in our favor because models completely fell flat on their look of the PAC and the result that would have downstream. PAC heights are +20 in comparison to what models were forecasting a few days back. The look is far Less progressive than models thought even 36 hours ago. Frontal boundary looks to be in a better spot too. im by no means honking, but a region wide 2-4” event is looking much more likely. Next 24 hours will be very telling.

Sorry mappy! Just refreshed my browser at work for the latest. Didn’t notice. My apologies.

NAM led the way with the last storm - no reason to believe it isn’t doing the same here. Just a little weary of being 72+ hours out and it not quite being in the NAM’s wheelhouse yet. Encouraging trends today all around. Great to see models moving toward the NAM and not Vice versa. Hug the NAM and NAVGAP and pray!

Incoming on the euro! Definitely a WAY better look.

Perfectly fine for the GFS actually. Doing it’s typical thang being too progressive . If the GFS keeps showing a near miss SE and the NAM stays / euro jumps on the snow train, it’s game on.

Looks awfully similar to evolution on the NAM. Definitely wouldn’t rely on this model solely, but sure, let’s add it to the ole arsenal of models showing snow - can’t hurt.

Because... “SoMD”

NAM reacted to the look of the PAC it appears. Models the past 3-4 days weren’t close with forecasting heights out there. Still also think models had zero clue what to do with that giant storm stalled out in the Atlantic for half a week.

BOOM

little too far out to trust a hi-res model

Think the 95 crew likely has the best shot here at getting precip heavy enough to overcome the borderline column. Wouldn’t mind seeing the Precip timing shift to overnight for sure

Models always need a little time to adjust after a big storm has exited stage right to get a grasp on the 500mb setup moving forward. Nothing about this setup screams suppression for Sunday anymore.

The trend toward a more amplified solution has officially begun. Said this like 4 days ago, but a nice little 1-4” type storm is the most likely outcome this Sunday if it does hit. Timing of precip also shifting a bit in our favor for colder temps. If this is a daytime storm, we’re likely in trouble.

Perfectly ok with a 2-4 3-6 type storm to kick off this ripe February pattern

0z Euro may be telling as to whether or not it’ll be the one caving, or Vice versa.

I’m just sitting here in complete awe that flakes are still falling from this storm. Same band of light snow with occasional bursts remains overhead. Great way to end the night and storm. Can confidently say we ended with over 11” here. Goodnight all.

Actually pretty encouraged by trend on the GEFS. not going to stay up for it, but curious to see what 0z euro has to say

another foot for NYC you say?

Suspect the GFS will still be squashed south.... but it would be nice to see it begin to at least hint a north solution is possible at h5/500mb. We’re about 5 days out

Still going here. Somehow?

Snowing nicely now here in UB. I imagine it’ll swing your way

My brother is reporting SN in Ellicott city. Seems to match radar with that band overhead. One last hoorah for that area it appears

Flakes should begin flying east of 29 within the half hour