jayyy

Shift the storm 30 miles SSE and that 24+ jackpot is right over us. Seasonal trend says not so fast however. I was never worried about suppression. I was worried about Harrisburg to Boston getting crushed. This setup reminds me of many classic Miller b’s that dumped 18+” on the New York metro area in the early 2000s when I lived up that way. Not all of them miss us down here, but some certainly do - especially from dc south. I’d take the euro / cmc blend and run with it but boy, are we playing with fire here if this trend North doesn’t halt big time by tomorrow night

I’m in that light blue shading between 18.5 and 23.4. I may have fainted for a moment.

Harrisburg to philly gets walloped.

Looks better for Baltimore than DC for sure

Another 8+ run area wide coming for sure.

Agreed. Have a feeling nyc ends up with 20” by the time this takes shape. As somebody who grew up in the NW suburbs of NYC, this type of setup is RIPE for a costal New England bomb now that we see the confluence likely won’t be overbearing and suppress the storm. The question is... does it get going early / south enough for the mid Atlantic to get in on the coastal too? 12z euro / CMC blend is exactly what we need to see for this to come together around these parts. Here’s to hoping!

Helluva PZF Sunday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday Night Snow. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Monday Snow likely before 1pm, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

12+” area wide DC to Baltimore the CMC shows would be a fantastic storm in a Nina. Woof. EPS/Euro/CMC/Ukie and early looks of the NAM say game on - think it’s time we start to get a bit excited.

You’re a goddamn weather encyclopedia. Love it man.

Thanks for all you do mate. Excited to hear your insight after you analyze tonight’s 0z models

Feeling pretty good right now about my general location for this one. Central MD into NoVA in general looks prime here. Far enough north for solid temps, far enough SSE to get in on solid QPF. I’d be worried if I lived NNW of the MD/ PA border about a crazy cutoff for sure.

If the euro didn’t show 30-40”, we’d be ecstatic to see most models showing a solid storm 120 hours out. A bit of a shift in the ridge out west, or the confluence to our NE, or a slight change in how strung out the look is at h5 is the difference between 5” and 12+ area wide. Certainly not a time to be panicking.

The problem is everybody is so snow hungry from the past 2 winters that they are fiending for snowmaggedon. when you’re not hitting the ball, sometimes you need to bunt to get on base. I would be ecstatic to see an easy 4-8” over some complex mess that ends up giving Binghamton another 30”

What? This is a 12+ run for much of VA and a mere 20-30 mile jog north gets DC-BAL along i95 in on it too. Why does everybody need to see 12-24+ ? Lmao. Can we just settle for a damn warning event at this point?

We have time for those details to iron out. This run certainly exposes everything that can go wrong with this one though. PSU analyzed this storm into his worst nightmare.

Warning snows for south-central MD, DC, on south to NVA on this run. NEVA into coastal MD gets pummeled. PSU ain’t gonna be happy with this one.

It can be 20-25 degrees and be pouring sleet. Trust me. As somebody who grew up in the mix zone NW of NYC, it happens enough. Saw a nasty sleet storm up there in the early 2000s and it never got above 30

The spirit that is.

Is it out yet?

The big dog isn’t coming until the blocking eases. I agree. Let’s get a few 3-6” events before the biggie in mid February

Yet pretty much the only model with any credibility 120+ out.

Still think a small 1-4” type event is on the table late sun into Mon morning as the proverbial appetizer for next weeks mid week threat. Would be sweet to have some snow cover to help out heading into the larger threat if it ends up being a marginal event

I was joking earlier, but the fact that we’re talking next Wednesday now and not Monday just confirms the insanity that is the 20-21 winter. One thing is for sure... we’re going to get smacked when this blocking pattern finally relaxes. A lot of our biggies have come on the tail ends of patterns like this. That being said, it’d be nice to squeeze a few 3+“ events out of this pattern before that happens

Temps dropped about 4-5 degrees once the heavy stuff came through.

Dark sky has a lull and then another batch of snow from 1-4 am