jayyy

100% Always bet on WAA snows from a Miller A over wraparound snows. If the CAD is even slightly underdone (very likely), we may see an area wide 3-6” before we even have to worry about the mix line. I think Baltimore sees 4-8” despite mixing issues at the height because of the initial dump.... unless the overall trend continues through tomorrow

I’ll donate $100 to DT if places like sykesville only see an inch. he has 1” inch and significant ice and 12-16” of snow awfully close together in MD / PA. ZERO chance this pans out.

Any shot that high stays anchored in bit longer (Better CAD than depicted) and pushes this baby south/southeast 30-40-50 miles? Or is everything too progressive at 500 mb for that to be a possibility?

100%. The OP run is definitely out of whack. I’d push the SLP at least 20-25 miles east

Who’s counting though, am I right?

Very interested to see how things shape up around rt 108/70. Could have eastern ellicott city seeing 4-7”, as western ellicott city / Marriottsville sees 7-10” with more as you head out west / north. Very sharp cutoff coming indeed. Would love to see 18z start a slight tick SE for folks closer to 95 to get in on the action. I’d gladly sacrifice a few inches up this way for my friends right down by da beach (bay)

Still has about a quarter inch of QPF left in the tank as well when that occurs. It’s never great to depend on back end snowfall though, especially with a storm that is riding through a fairly progressive 500 mb pattern. It’s 2020 though, anything can happen in this crazy year!

I second and third this motion. Chubbys is life.

Definitely a solid spot. Our son goes to mt saint marys and lives off campus in Thurmont. Looks like a foot is almost a sure bet up there. Looking similar here in Union bridge.

12z euro using kuchera is about a foot in Baltimore proper. Drops off steeply south of there. Woof. Gonna be close.

Believe it was around Christmas 2005. A cold driving rain turned over to 6+“ of heavy snow in a 8-10 hour window. Not sure I’ve seen a storm where 850s crashed as quickly as with that storm. A classic no doubt!

Hoping for a good 50-75 mile jog east for my friends down in Baltimore and dc! Rooting for you guys!

Right? 15”? Sign me up lol

Thank you. I’m all for moving along.

Why are you so offended by the notion that this storm isn’t our jackpot? a) northern areas will win out b) still possible for Baltimore to see 6” if things align. It’s not very complicated. And your need to attack my intelligence is both pathetic and unwarranted on a weather forum. Relax chief. Focus on your wailing ravens and less on other people’s intelligence.

That’s awesome! She’s going to get walloped then? No?

It’s not my job to coddle the feelings of people who live in warmer parts of the sub forum out of snowpression. I’m being realistic here. 90+% of the forum will see advisory to warning level snowfall before winter even begins. That’s a good start, no matter the outcome in your own backyard. This storm was never going to be a jackpot for our area compared to NY NJ PA. If one gets 3-6” in Baltimore city out of this, that’s a win - no matter the “maximum potential outcome if everything aligned correctly”. We barely saw 3” total all of last winter. Perspective man.

? Not sure what’s funny. Every storm that doesn’t turn into a MECS or HECS is thrashed by half of the forum. 6” in Baltimore city on 12/16 would be a great start to the winter. Expectations are always far too high. People shouldn’t have a “foot of snow or bust” mentality. It’s frankly exhausting and annoying. Even in the snowier sections of the forum. We live in Maryland. Not New York or Maine. we will likely more than double the entire snowfall total of last year before winter even begins. Take the W.

Interested to see what the GFS/ICON/EPS/RGEM do at 12z. More concerned with the trend than the verbatim solution.

This storm has had S/C PA NMD NNJ SENY and southern New England jackpot written all over it since day 1. Classic Miller A setup in the early days of winter. Someone in the corridor between Harrisburg and Philly is going to see 30” out of this. Bet on that. If it were January with that 1040 HP up north.... we’d all be in the game. Think some are trying to overplay the hand we’ve been dealt here. Know your climo! Especially on December 16th. that being said... this isn’t over. At all. There is absolutely zero reason to believe this storm is a done deal entirely. Yes. Baltimore isn’t getting a foot. But 6” is still very much possible. Doesn’t take much of a shift to get I-95 in on warning level snows.

I was just about to say this. I lived in Middletown PA from 2013-2015 right outside York & Harrisburg. They were pretty good winters for that area and there were definitely storms where that area saw 3-6” as Maryland saw little to anything.... but it’s not worth the move IMO. It’s a really boring and dull area to live. Sure, it snows more in York.... but not enough to move my life back there. It was miserably boring compared to Maryland.

100%. And we may not know until 00z tomorrow - or perhaps until the storm arrives. There is almost zero agreement among models at h5 and the upper levels and were within 48 hours. There’s a lot of noise for these models to read through, including the energy coming through the area right now dumping cold rain on us. GFS showed nearly a foot of snow in Baltimore at 6z, nearly 10” at DCA while other models only show 2-5”. Going to be insanely close for I-95. I don’t think models have much of a grasp on what’s going on here. Somewhere between the GFS/euro seems most likely IMO.

Going to be really interesting to see where that CCB sets up. It could help some places just west of 95 “catch up” a bit with their snowfall totals on the backside. I see it setting up in a spot near the R/S line. As a member of the “northern crew”, am rooting for that to occur along 95 for you folks as we seem pretty set up this way

This storm is going to be insanely close on the margins. Could have a situation where folks around owings mills (N of 70 / W of 695) see 8” while folks in middle river / Essex see 2”. Difference in 50 miles in track could mean the world to folks along 95

Ah. Should have known something was updated / different when the euro has 6z runs. Been “outta the game” so to speak. As always, thank you for sharing your wisdom my friend.