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jayyy

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Everything posted by jayyy

  1. jayyy
    Initial precip movement of the banding and convection off the Carolina coast is NNE, riding along the coastal plain.
  2. jayyy
    6-8mb pressure drop at the NC/VA border in the past 6 hours. Come on baby, keep going.
  3. jayyy
    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/change/change.html Check it out. Rapid pressure falls off the Carolina coast.
  4. jayyy
    Yup. Lots of thunderstorms off the coastline. Last frame of the radar loop you can begin to see a little filling in NoVa and bridging of the two main areas of low pressure. It’s going to be wicked close.
  5. jayyy
    It’s not sleet
  6. jayyy
    https://ibb.co/R4hVNY5 Ton of convection popping up off the Carolinas. Coastal’s getting its act together
  7. jayyy
    I grew up right over the border in Rockland county NY. 10 mins north of Bergen County NJ. NNJ into the lower Hudson valley into SW CT and coastal RI / MA always jack on these storms. Always. Someone in the higher elevations of NWNJ will see 30” I bet
  8. jayyy
    Seeing a few mets saying NWS and others are getting too jumpy with their changes in forecasts. Miller b’s do come with one thing - the element of surprise. There’s 0 way to know or model where this CCB sets up or how quickly the coastal gets going. We’re going to have to be patient. Still Have a good feeling about the area from I-70 north and north east come tomorrow.
  9. jayyy
    Ninja’d me!
  10. jayyy
    Steve D sticking with his totals. We shall see.
  11. jayyy
    Developing off NC as we speak. Solid start. The key is what does it do from there and how quickly does it get its act together.
  12. jayyy
    Icon can eat my shorts. It’s prob right though.
  13. jayyy
    Told my parents that they should be on the lookout Monday night into Tuesday. I suspect someone between Nyack NY and Ashbury Park NJ will get a foot in 3-4 hours.
  14. jayyy
    Secondary forming off the NC Coastline. I mean... it’s so damn close. So close to being what we need.
  15. jayyy
    You’re over in the Columbia area right? My brother said he’s got 2.75” in ellicott city, so that lines up well.
  16. jayyy
    Show me or shut up haha I kid - but seriously
  17. jayyy
    My folks were just upgraded to 18-24 in their Wsw. Never a good sign for us down here.
  18. jayyy
    Was gonna say..... the evolution is nowhere near the same as 2016. That thing was a monster that tracked out of the south East and up the coastline.
  19. jayyy
    Also... pressures dropping the fastest off NC. Could be signs of a further south transfer. Been refreshing the 3 hour pressure change map all day
  20. jayyy
    Check out the last frame of the radar. Precip beginning to fill in between the two main batches of precipitation. Exactly what we need to see. Let’s get those easterlies rocking off VA
  21. jayyy
    Yep. And the forecasted placement of this coastal low is REAL close to where we need it to be for this CCB to become a reality. I understand people’s pessimism, but we are 90% of the way there to having this verify. We just need a few things to happen. Keep positive all!
  22. jayyy
    It’s actually quite possible this pans out. You’re being pessimistic, and rightfully so. But this solution has plenty of support
  23. jayyy
    It’s Sunday. The coastal forms and explodes tomorrow into early Tuesday morning. The radar we see now has zero to do with the way the radar will look tomorrow.
  24. jayyy
    Think it’s going to be really close for you and places like Howard county. It all comes down to the SW extend of the CCB. Could very well see 6” in Rockville and SW HoCo and 12” in the ellicott city / Catonsville Baltimore area as the euro depicts here. We need the storm to form a bit south and tuck so the storm is able to rotate precip into SW portions of the CWA. BWI could double up on DCA.
  25. jayyy
    I actually think this is the most likely outcome here if things align correctly with the coastal. There’s plenty of room for heavy snow to make its way into eastern half of Maryland with the CCB, including Baltimore city.
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