PrinceFrederickWx

53 players so far! Still don’t have official forecasts from: @WxWatcher007 @psuhoffman @showmethesnow

It would be really fun to have a snow event occurring right as the contest is about to close! We'd all be revising numbers back and forth based on hourly obs

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51668-mid-atlantic-winter-2018-19-snowfall-contest/?do=findComment&comment=5018803

He's here, everyone! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYJyceAPWX8

A reminder that this contest closes on Saturday night, so be sure to get any edits in (especially the troll forecasts lol). Turnout this year is somewhat lower so far, with only 43 entries.

@showmethesnow ^this guy, every year:

It's happening again

Tiebreaker must be SBY or LYH. OKV does not measure snowfall.

A reminder to everyone that this contest WILL include the 0.9" that has fallen at RIC today and the 0.5" that has fallen at SBY today (if you chose SBY as a tiebreaker).

From 70’s yesterday to snowing today. First official T for IMBY

27 players so far- let’s get 100+ people playing! Lurkers, new people, etc. -don’t be afraid to join in!

You're back- we missed you last year! I always love your Calls With Balls™ (although RIC is getting kinda shafted).

Last place right here

What’s always been funny over the years is watching the revisions back and forth throughout the month. In mid-November the hype builds and the weenie revisions start. Then later in the month the pattern inevitably goes to hell and you start seeing all the cliff-jumping revisions back.

Our summer contest winner is hoping to extend his hot streak (pardon the pun).

Only a low of 35 here, so I have still not had my first freeze yet for the season.

Tied for 11th hottest October at BWI.

Any guess on when spring will begin? My guess is March 19.

I won't be around over the weekend so I figured I'd get this up a few days before I normally start. I'll open with this forecast- baby's first winter at my house is always a dumpster fire: BWI: 8.6" DCA: 5.3" IAD: 9.9” RIC: 5.6" Tiebreaker SBY: 4.4"

It's time for the 5th annual Mid-Atlantic snowfall contest! Everyone is encouraged to play- including lurkers, new members and people outside the region! You are forecasting the total snowfall for the entire season (NOT just Dec/Jan/Feb) for the four major airports: BWI, DCA, IAD and RIC. For the tiebreaker, you will choose one of the following two airports: Salisbury (SBY) or Lynchburg (LYH). Please choose only one- in the event of the tiebreaker, the difference at the airport you chose will be compared with the difference at the airport your opponent(s) chose. The winner will be the person who has the lowest combined absolute value departure for all four airports (this link explains the calculation in more detail, for anyone who needs clarification: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50428-mid-atlantic-winter-2017-18-snowfall-contest/?do=findComment&comment=4656575 ). Please use the following format when posting your forecast: BWI: DCA: IAD: RIC: Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH): The deadline for entries is Saturday, November 30 at 11:59pm. You are welcome to edit your forecast as many times as you want until the deadline. If there's any accumulating snow before the deadline, please include that in your forecast as well. The winner gets an E-trophy made of snow and an induction into the Hall of Fame with the previous winners: 2015-16: @Shadowzone 2016-17: @Stormpc 2017-18: @olafminesaw 2018-19: @olafminesaw (tiebreaker win against @Stormpc) Good luck everyone!

Yeah, I’m not banking on a one-in-a-million HECS to save us in late March, hence why I’d tend to go very low for snowfall unless I see changes. Both those winters were dumpster fires if the March events are excluded.

You're right so far, but '86 flipped to colder and wet in November- we'll have to see. But 86/87 was kinda back-loaded too- it didn't start snowing until the double-whammy storms of late January.

The two winters that seem to match the anomalous fall heat/drought best so far to me are 1930/31 and 1941/42- both of those winters were warm and snowless until they flipped (in a big way) in March. The 31/32 winter was also similar- though it wasn't much snow, the pattern also changed in March. This is just my wild guess, but I'd be inclined to go with a very back-loaded winter. I'm probably going really low in the snowfall contest unless I see something change.

September finished tied for 5th hottest and also 2nd driest at BWI. This is the decade of hot Septembers at BWI- 2018 is now tied for 11th hottest and 2016 is now ranked 16th hottest. It will be interesting to see how the 1991-2020 norms affect September, as there as only been one this decade with below average temps- 2013, which was still only -0.1. @RodneyS or @MN Transplant how did DCA/IAD do?

I’m curious as to how you pick analogs, as those range from strong La Nina to weak El Nino. It doesn’t seem like you weight ENSO much- what would you say are the most important factors in making your forecast?