PrinceFrederickWx

I won't be around over the weekend so I figured I'd get this up a few days before I normally start. I'll open with this forecast- baby's first winter at my house is always a dumpster fire: BWI: 8.6" DCA: 5.3" IAD: 9.9” RIC: 5.6" Tiebreaker SBY: 4.4"

It's time for the 5th annual Mid-Atlantic snowfall contest! Everyone is encouraged to play- including lurkers, new members and people outside the region! You are forecasting the total snowfall for the entire season (NOT just Dec/Jan/Feb) for the four major airports: BWI, DCA, IAD and RIC. For the tiebreaker, you will choose one of the following two airports: Salisbury (SBY) or Lynchburg (LYH). Please choose only one- in the event of the tiebreaker, the difference at the airport you chose will be compared with the difference at the airport your opponent(s) chose. The winner will be the person who has the lowest combined absolute value departure for all four airports (this link explains the calculation in more detail, for anyone who needs clarification: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50428-mid-atlantic-winter-2017-18-snowfall-contest/?do=findComment&comment=4656575 ). Please use the following format when posting your forecast: BWI: DCA: IAD: RIC: Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH): The deadline for entries is Saturday, November 30 at 11:59pm. You are welcome to edit your forecast as many times as you want until the deadline. If there's any accumulating snow before the deadline, please include that in your forecast as well. The winner gets an E-trophy made of snow and an induction into the Hall of Fame with the previous winners: 2015-16: @Shadowzone 2016-17: @Stormpc 2017-18: @olafminesaw 2018-19: @olafminesaw (tiebreaker win against @Stormpc) Good luck everyone!

I heard the Nationals got stuck at the airport in Houston and had the Orioles fill in for the home games, can someone confirm this? Asking for a friend.

So is Halloween night looking like a washout?

It was a brief torch (December 20-23) but pretty extreme. BWI had daily record highs AND high minimums on both Dec 21-22, along with a monthly high minimum on the 22nd. By Christmas Day, however, we were back to cold. Everyone seems to think that winter was wall-to-wall cold, but it was not. I'm not even sure if I'd sign up for a repeat of that winter, as that seemed to be more of lucking out on every possible chance and threading every needle in a mediocre pattern. Plus it wasn't that good IMBY compared to most areas.

1.61" since midnight and still pouring. I don't think this much rain was forecast here.

The original finale felt perfect to me and complete. Without spoiling for people who haven’t watched, I’m not sure this additional story was really needed, nor does it really answer nor change much of anything. In general though, I’m not a big fan of spinoff series, movies, etc. of any TV show- it just feels unnecessarily tacked on (I don’t care for Better Call Saul either). It was also tough getting around the fact that some of the characters have visibly aged very much in six years. But, again, it was still very good, and I hope they just leave it at that.

Just watched this last night. It was very good, but... unnecessary. But they really need to stop right now, while it’s still good.

1.99” IMBY- just couldn’t get to 2”

Yes, trust me, she’s worse than you and Eskimo Joe combined.

My wife always makes themed cakes for everyone's birthdays (the kids, me, my family, etc.). I thought I'd share this one with you all since it's tornado themed- our middle son loves tornadoes so she made this one for his birthday tomorrow (he turns 3). By the way, in January she's making a hurricane themed one for my mother, who is literally the biggest tropical weenie I've ever known (this disorder seems to run in the family, if you've noticed).

Yeah, I’m not banking on a one-in-a-million HECS to save us in late March, hence why I’d tend to go very low for snowfall unless I see changes. Both those winters were dumpster fires if the March events are excluded.

You're right so far, but '86 flipped to colder and wet in November- we'll have to see. But 86/87 was kinda back-loaded too- it didn't start snowing until the double-whammy storms of late January.

The two winters that seem to match the anomalous fall heat/drought best so far to me are 1930/31 and 1941/42- both of those winters were warm and snowless until they flipped (in a big way) in March. The 31/32 winter was also similar- though it wasn't much snow, the pattern also changed in March. This is just my wild guess, but I'd be inclined to go with a very back-loaded winter. I'm probably going really low in the snowfall contest unless I see something change.

Fortunately yesterday didn't change the result, but it was close. Next year if I have this contest I will probably keep it going until mid-October, just in case.

I didn't know there was a 5 minute obs link- if anyone has that can you send it to me?

I have 96 for DCA.

LOL DCA is only 83 while BWI is 92

Here's the daily and monthly records at the airports- all are in play today. BWI: Daily 89; Monthly 97 DCA: Daily 89; Monthly 96 IAD: Daily 89; Monthly 94 RIC: Daily 91; Monthly 99

There’s a good chance tomorrow would have actually changed the result.

September finished tied for 5th hottest and also 2nd driest at BWI. This is the decade of hot Septembers at BWI- 2018 is now tied for 11th hottest and 2016 is now ranked 16th hottest. It will be interesting to see how the 1991-2020 norms affect September, as there as only been one this decade with below average temps- 2013, which was still only -0.1. @RodneyS or @MN Transplant how did DCA/IAD do?

#1 was 2010 wasn’t it? How many days was it for the #1 year?

This site has been working fine for me since the update! Much improved!

Last September was tied for 10th hottest at BWI and now this one is probably going to be in the top 5.

I can't tell if my trees went dormant early or just flat out died from the drought.