PrinceFrederickWx

The vast majority of my money is still in the G fund. I was talking about setting my contribution allocations going forward (which I've got set to nearly all C fund now)- I will be dollar cost averaging all the way down. I don't think anyone knows where the bottom will be (I certainly don't) and attempting to time the market and "look for the bottom" are not going to work. I do know that the last few years have been ridiculously overvalued, which is why I sat it out. I've been waiting for this bear market. And to think, just a few months ago I was told the exact opposite- "You're still sitting in the G Fund? You're missing out on this historic bull market!" I'm totally fine with a 50% drop, the lower the better. I have a lot of time... unless you're going to argue we're Japan in the 1980's, in which case we're all screwed anyway so it doesn't matter.

Good choice. I have been loading up on the C Fund (S&P 500) in my TSP... if you have ten years or more to sit on it, this is the best buying opportunity since early 2009 IMHO. You want to be buying when everyone is panicking and heading for the exits.

I’m probably shutting this down at the end of the month. Prestige has pretty much locked it up, even if we get an accumulating event. This will be my 3rd consecutive top ten finish at least (and I get higher up in the leaderboard every year).

It’s a bigger sample size than the mostly worthless indices you all track and it has a 100% correlation so far. I called for a shutout back in October in Weather53’s other thread anyway.

Every November that has less than 2” of rain at BWI/DCA has a winter that turns out to be a dumpster fire. It’s a better leading indicator than any model at this point.

We always do wind well this time of year.

Yeah, at this point we'd have to kill it all, fully amend the soil, then start all over. After we bought this house, we found out the builder basically rolled out sod over subsoil (to make it look nice for closing) without doing any prep work at all. My half-assed attempts at fixing the problem (spreading seed and layering topsoil in) have never worked long-term. Not sure of exact height- tall enough to be mowed lol I believe my first mow in 2017 was also February- I'd have to check my notes to be sure.

I am not trolling- I had to mow about half my yard last weekend. Though admittedly most of my yard is weeds- I’ve given up on ever getting good grass to grow here.

I had to mow last weekend. Other than that one low of 21 last week, I’ve never gone below the upper 20’s this winter. My Daffodils and Hyacinths are about to bloom and some of my shrubs near the house never even went fully dormant.

Update: BWI: 1.8" DCA: 0.6" IAD: 2.9" RIC: 1.5"

I think the upper limit on what I could grade this winter would be a C- and that assumes a 30” HECS in March with 5” per hour rates.

I didn’t realize DCA has never had a zero (i.e. not even a T) February... BWI had zeroes in 1884 and 1898 though.

I agree this is probably all subjective. Climo IMBY in April is 60’s and the period from April to early June is our best shot at what I consider “nice” weather, so I don’t like it when we lose part of that to 40’s and lingering cold (I’d be especially pissed if it happened after this awful winter too). Admittedly I’m not a cold lover so yeah, I consider 40’s cold... I don’t ski, but I can’t imagine myself skiing in -10 temperatures.

I noticed you used the entire month, instead of just the first half like my post stated... BWI had five straight days in April 2007 that never got out of the 40's (and also had accumulating snow). I had snow falling on both 4/7/18 and 4/9/18 and accumulating on 4/9/16. 40's in April is cold to me- that's our average DJF high. The first half of April can be a winter month- I could fill the entire page up with examples.

idk about that- the first half of April can be quite chilly if it wants too (2018 and 2007 come to mind).

This is February 1998 all over again.

You should make it top seven at BWI so once this winter is done we can have 97/98 and 16/17 still on the list. Five of the top seven in the last 22 years lol

Historically it usually takes one rebuilding season to get out of dumpster fires like this one (the exception to this was 01/02 though).

This winter is even worse than 11/12- at least that winter had a dusting in October (probably something I’ll never see IMBY again).

I watched Season 1 of True Detective- for you tropical weenies, I counted at least three different hurricanes mentioned (Andrew, Rita and Katrina).

NWS still has no chance of rain today and becoming mostly sunny- but it’s raining here currently.

I've been out on February for a long time. In most of the fall seasons that I found similar to 2019, the pattern generally persisted until March and then flipped. March has a chance but like I said last fall, I wouldn't be hanging my weenie hat on a one-in-a-million HECS save like 1942. Some paltry snow event that melts in an hour is more likely. I wanted to be reaped early on because getting some event in March isn't enough to save it for me (but might be enough to have me win the snowfall contest lol). After I made that post in October, I became even more concerned with how dry November was- having precip less than 2" at BWI and DCA is one of the best leading indicators of an impending dumpster fire.

God damn this post was sooo good!

I will post this video in lieu of a Halftime Report, as it provides a better recap of the season so far: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcI_l_biVOg Reminder: "analysis" comes from the word "anal" plus "-ysis", which is Latin for "to pull things from":

Since this topic came up in various threads, I wasn’t sure where to post it, so I just made a new topic altogether. I looked up all the snow events that were 1” or more over the last 40 years at BWI and DCA (1980-2019) and charted them. An event was defined as 1” or more within a 3-day period. In some cases there was accumulating snow on four consecutive days- those were treated as two events, since NWS does not recognize 4-day snow events. Surprisingly for BWI, the trend line was slightly positive. On average, there are about 4-5 snow events of 1” or more during the season at BWI. For DCA, the trend was slightly negative. On average, there are about 3-4 snow events of 1” or more during the season at DCA. The year-to-year volatility for both locations started to increase from the mid-90’s onward. One other thing is that the number of events does not always correlate to whether the overall season was above or below average in total snowfall. For example, 2001 had below average snow and 2016 had above average snow; however, 2001 had more events than 2016. 1” was just an arbitrary line in the sand- perhaps if I raised or lowered the threshold, the story would be completely different. But the main topic on the forum recently has been (for example) that a 2” event would now be 0.2”. This chart should capture a decrease in those situations. @psuhoffman @North Balti Zen and @RevWarReenactor may be interested in this. Feel free to discuss or poke holes in it. It was a cursory look, but I can dig deeper if there's something more that anyone is interested in. Although I would ask that anyone please ask my permission first if they want to copy the charts to another site, thanks!