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No SVR thread yet: looks too marginal except nw edge of the forum. IF this changes more favorable, will add on, or if it looks blatant on radar. For now, no thread on D1 severe. Regarding the Sept CP10". My goal by Sat evening is to see CP with new 0.40" by then (monthly total just over 8"). Then I think we still have a fading chance. IF CP has less than 0.20 by Saturday eve, think it will be much harder to exceed 10" this month. We have the tropical considerations after the 23rd to contend with and while the 500MB troughing is sharpening to our west on the 06z/15 GEFS, just too early for me to count on a big rain after the 23rd.

Will rereview 13z SPCD1 and the 12z HRRR, then probably start a thread for the D1 SVR risk.

Recurving but with possibilities. Just need to wait it out. We're talking 15 days away... UA pattern can change considerably by then.

Yes... Need to monitor. I'm pretty sure there will be a TC there, but whether it goes ballistic and or nears LI?? some of the modeling like this weekends possible Odette/Peter, heads east northeast before coming close enough to involve the mainland in its direct circulation.

Further wrap-up on the evening-overnight two bands of showers (First last evening was mainly PA/NJ/LI; second early today was NYS/CT). Click the maps for greater clarity. My last on this generally small event except axis of max rainfall. Still about 10,000 meters were without power this morning at about 7A, mainly Monmouth County NJ.

So, beyond what might happen Wed night as the front approaches, the Thu-Fri outcome might be as interesting. Decent s-se inflow into the remains of the frontal boundary, wherever it is stuck , which could be I95 to as much as ~80 NW of I95, and it may yield patches 1-3" rainfall. If the offshore low is named Odette, or Peter, then we might be looking at a PRE, especially Fri? Sketchy signals and nothing impressive so it's a low prob but for me worthy of monitoring modeling. Probably worth noting the dry extended forecasts for yesterday and this week have moistened. Not convinced yet, that Saturday morning is dry, and some action may be developing middle of next week.

CP 0.12 thru 5A today - 9/14, all of it late last eve. 7.63 for the month so far.

Good morning everyone, A brief model summary was provided last eve around 9P. Not much to rehash. Here's the storm damage reports as posted by the NWS thru 550A today. I'll add the CoCoRaHs summary sometime midday. Max qpf axis near the reports axis. CP 0.12 Wantage NJ 0.07. Click the map for greater clarity.

Wantage NJ: .02 so far. need to comfort our dog--- probably my last post til morning. Have a good night.

Added the 18z/13 NAM and even better, the 18z/13 HRDPS qpf. Purple gets you to 2". All this by sunrise Tuesday. HRDPS was very-very cyclically consistent in its previous 4 cycles for this going I80-I78 event. NAM was all over the place N and S.

Added the 18z/13 NAM and even better, the 18z/13 HRDPS qpf. Purple gets you to 2". All this by sunrise Tuesday.

Sampling of 1" amounts from wxunderground as of 910PM. nw NJ Belvidere to Hackettstown area. Think SPC did a very nice effort on picking this event out for PA/NJ, AND so did the GFS almost cyclically. EC had some nice high TT and the 18z/13 NAM was quite eyeopening for NYC and NNJ-still on trop tidbits.

NJWXNET

Rain has started Wantage NJ. Warnings down I80 and it looks like pretty decent rainfall headed for the city. Maybe it will reach 3/4"????

Nowcasting the the frontal boundary period of strong thunderstorms w heavy rain, lightnng strikes, hail, mainly along and south of I80 this evening. NYC seems to be on the north fringe but worthy of monitoring. There may be a second batch after 1AM Tuesday?

Tonight: Rapidly developing convection in northern PA at 525PM may pass mostly across PA/NJ, especially just s of I80 meaning NYC may miss out on 1/2-1/2" tonight (& hail) and escape with much less. I saw the 18z/13 NAM w large qpf in NYC, but a little concerned the PA action will hug the greatest instability. Nevertheless, if it looks impressive at 830P for SVR, I may add a thread for reports. Tuesday-Saturday: ENS are getting a little wetter with the NAEFS showing an approximately 40% chance of 1" NYC-LI by Saturday night. EPS has definitely become wetter, in part by what I think is an evolving upper low s of LI (well south of anomalously warm heights near the Canadian border); and possibly a little northward ingest of Nicholas moisture as witnessed via the EPS above normal corridor newd from TEXAS thru the OHIO valley to I80 in the Northeast. Even the pattern toward the 28th-30th is taking on an interesting look as tropical members head north off the east coast.

No threads despite SPC D1 attached, and what appears to me a piece of Nicholas PW leaking out up into our area toward the 18th. This thread will suffice, if anything significant happens. After the 19th, doesn't look promising for a big rain that till the 29th-30th, but lots can change by then. For now, it would be nice if we do get some convection early Tuesday morning for starters. We're also on the se edge for Wednesday SPC D3... will take one day at a time. While some of the parameters are favorable for later tonight, I'll just accept decent storms in the Scranton - NYC slot as useful. Some of the 00z/13 modeling has at least temporarily backed off on an event for tonight. SPC D1 and discussion attached below, as well as the 00z/13 SPC HREF mean qpf and MAX axis qpf.. Would love to see this mean correct... confidence less than ideal. 623AM edit: I see the 06z GFS is back on board tonight. Nice.

Reviewing 12z/12 model guidance: Nicholas moisture has a chance here toward the 17th-18th if it doesn't get stuck in Texas, or swept to our north. SPC this afternoon has upgraded to slight risk Tuesday, which may happen early in the day and again at night per potential clusters of thunderstorms and fairly strong nw-w flow aloft, and TT 52-57. And the mid Atlantic coastal low option still is an option here, if it doesn't turn east out to sea next weekend? No threads, just too much model disagreement.

927AM edit additional impressions: Just reviewed data in more details. 1) 06z GEFS starting to show more interest for me regarding a tucked in rain producing low for the mid Atlantic coast 15-17th. Members starting to pique my interest. Also a load of TC reflections after the 23rd moving n or nw in the w-central Atlc. These could all recurve too far east. My interest will grow much further if we can start seeing GMEX (w of 75W TC's). This going to be interesting as anomalously warm heights build over the se quarter of Canada the next 10 days (to me implies slower movement as steering flow decreases in the eastern USA) 2) SVR threat: EC has a pretty decent nw flow svr signal for Mon afternoon-night and I'm a believer in any model showing bullseye stripe of 1/4" plus in PA/NJ/LI Monday or Tuesday as Cape also increases, with TT in the low 50s and winds aloft greater than 35 kt.

Hope Don is right above: No event threads yet...just too much uncertainty in my mind, when. The past two cycles of the op GFS (9/12 versions) look a little unrealistic to me when looking toward the 20th and seeing it model a 1030'sMB high down our way into New England. Doesn't seem normal for the pattern (too strong a high). SPC has a marginal risk here Monday the 13th. Will rereview next 24 hours but no thread. The Texas coast (likely in my mind) TC Nicholas has some opportunity for moisture to escape Texas and head our way late this week?? but nothing clear cut for me. EPS and GEFS are not yet showing above normal qpf here before the 28th, which is tempering my enthusiasm a bit, despite pattern evolution. I always consider the overall ensemble modeling, especially beyond 48 hours. Will check back again early Monday. Enjoy these days.

Posting rainfall specific to NYC in the CP thread next 8 days. May be gin a thread for a tropical system of sorts sometime Sunday. I need to more thoroughly review,

So, there should be showers in the NYC subforum as early as later Sunday (probably later Monday into early Tuesday and possibly again 15/16th. I'd like to see NYC get between 0.1-0.2 the 13th-14th and a quarter inch or more the 15th-16th. Then thereafter, we see what evolves from the cyclically favorable GFS and GGEM op cycle for tropical WAA after the 17th. Timing and organized trop system unknown. No thread yet on tropical system (or remnant -post TC) but re-reviewing early Sunday and more thoroughly.

Yes, definitely a little cooler than I expected the past 4 days. Not starting any new threads yet. SPC has northern part of forum in Marginal Risk Sunday (my guess is a shower or thunderstorm Sunday night) and possible thunder on Monday (again late Monday or Monday night). Pair of tropical PWATS head north next week from near 30N (FL Atlantic coast to Gulf Coast) and could mean some larger scale rain action later next week but far too early for me to thread, confidently. CPC has odds favoring normal, or possibly above normal qpf next couple of weeks.

What happened: via CoCoRaHs

There should be showers in the NYC subforum later 12 into early 14 and possibly again 15/16th. After that pattern should become favorable fir tropical WAA after the 17th. Timing and organized trop system unknown. Trod has a tendency to back up to Miss Valley as I see it in the ensembles by D10-15. That should allow WAR to strengthen. Lots of unknowns. Latest CPC D6-14 has odds favoring AN QPF. Unknowns but pattern says it’s possible.