wdrag
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Everything posted by wdrag
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Rainfall NYC metro, imo, probably ranges from 1/4" e tip LI to maybe spotty 6-8" nw NJ-nw CT/ne PA between Thursday evening the 7th and Wednesday evening the 13th, as modeling from vicinity Aug 30-31 continues excessive potential. This does not include the LEE interaction of Wed/Thu Sept 15-16, if its delayed that long. That interaction would probably be enhanced RRQ upper level jet se Canada and some packing of PW along the I95 corridor near CF, for a band of 6-12 hour potentially excessive... but that latter 9/15-16 still just a model suggested vision which adjusts in the future. In the meantime: probabilistic guidance probably not seen by many... but added here to show potential in GEFS guidance for SVR D1-8. Brown is very low prob but still notable for not discarding the possibility. I think this is useful for consideration. Have a hot enjoyable day. Walt
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Modeling that I like to review is staying on target... I think lots of rain coming up 9/8-15 for the NYC metro into PA/NYS/NJ/LI. WPC is growing its area of general 1.5+ through the 12z/4 cycle. How the probable strong TS interacts along the mid and n talc coast is still up for debate. For now, am not ruling out contribution to rain along the coasts as suggested by ensembles---too much uncertainty to be sure right now (for me). Ensembles have been consistently offering a separate R+ area just of the mid Atlc coast to the s of LI near 9/15 in the ensembling via tropical tidbits. Long-long way to go, in part dependent on the probable TS strengthening and building the 5H ridge to the east-northeast of Bermuda, and in part how the southward extent of the troughing at 5H in the Great Lakes-Tennessee Valley evolves 12-17 time frame. I would hope that mariners are monitoring potential for a storm along 70-65W next week, hoping that future trends shunt east of 65W.
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D6-10 and 8-14 from CPC issued this afternoon continues a wet second week of Sept around here. Troughing: still plenty of time to turn the flow more ssw at 5H instead of wsw, and draw the offshore tropical system further nw. Current little dry spell beyond Wed the 6th = decreasing chances.
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fwiw..CPC mid afternoon issuance today has D6-10 and 8-14 above normal qpf our area... suggests possibilities of a storm.
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possible. laying low on this but continue to look at something week two Sept. Nothing obvious, for now.
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Does look interesting to me after Sept 7 for the tropics along the mid Atlc and northeast USA coast...... weakness troughing and tending to develop trough westward and latitudinally further south from the Atlantic and signs of storms in the w Atlc in ensemble members. Two sets of ensembles have in recent cycles shown above normal rainfall for NYC subforum in the period roughly 9/8-15. (EPS/GEPS).
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For what it's worth, I always follow up, good or bad on sense of what may happen. Posted p1 March whenever this thread started. Will March average within a degree of normal at CP... possibly less than the actual January 2023 average. Also, can March reach the 5" average for snowfall at CP? Prevailing impressions from the snow drought distraught are probably not. As it turns out... March was another dud for the winter. Mean temp: Jan 43.5. Feb 41.1. March 44.6. (PLUS 1.8F) Have a super summer.
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Did go back and verify. Last 9 days were 3F cooler in CP than the mid Feb 10 day period. Not much more I can say about general ensemble value, expect that its positive in a general sense week two-three.
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Wantage NJ in far nw NJ 0.2" and light snow at 445AM 32.2.F. most of the snow since about 3AM.
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Wantage NJ. 245A total 3.6". 2-3" on pavement. 31.8F.
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Wantage NJ 4sw (this southern part). 2.7" new snow since 640PM change over. Next measurement around 430 AM. 31.8F. Everything covered-draped in wet snow. Light snow continues at 1050PM. Good night.
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Wantage Nj 4sw: snow increase 1.2" past hour with 1.3" since it began all sow around 640P. All surfaces including unplowed-untreated pavements with at least 1" cover. 32.2F.
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Wantage NJ (this part) 0.6" on grass etc, none on pavement. Nothing like Bethleham PA above. 31F light nw wind at 4A.
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Wantage (this southern part) NJ 6.2" total with the dense small flake snow of 4A now becoming less dense but larger flakes. Down to 25.9F. I'm thinking this snow will survive the 50F attack on Thursday with a leftover inch or 2 in advance of Friday. Also, I don't think we're quite done today (may be another 1/2" here in far nw NJ) here but essentially storm over. Roads plowed and wet even here at mid 20s temp.
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Wantage NJ - this part of elevated Sussex County at 740' MSL. 1.5" since the 1245A report for a total of 5.8" and very fine tiny flake snow in progress. 28F
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Wantage NJ, this southern part at 740'MSL 1245AM report 4.3". Light snow in progress with 29F. Beautiful.
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Wantage NJ 0.3" snow 630-7P. sleeting since then. all untreated surfaces slippery.
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agreed.
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True. I just checked 00z/GEPS press 18z/2. the 12z/25 GGEM op is 15MB lower in MA with its 991MB low. Could it verify? Unlikely when all ensembles are much weaker. Trop tidbits has the ens MSLP and worth a check. Check Mon night and Fri-Sat. My snow at 0.7" in this in part of Wantage. I'm done for the day, possibly weekend.
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I don't think so. Look at all ens qpf. While EPS is still down, it has 1/2" qpf up here and some of that will be snow just w of I95. The 00z EC operational went pretty big snow in VA (check it) from nill all prior cycles. It's tasting the stronger short wave potential. I expect the GGEM to come on board by the 12z/26 cycle. If not, then GFS wayyyyy off but I give this time. GGEM 12/25z op likes the 3/2 event very strong and have doubts. If its not strong on 3/2, then this will probably drift to a bigger storm for the ne USA on Fri-Sat. I have to give this time to wiper back and forth at D6.
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good.
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I've grown bit more conservative in my 60th year attempting these forecasts (probably should have learned that 25 years ago). Forum can say and do whatever, though myself... I think whatever we say needs to be with consideration of whatever results. Thanks for your update.
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Not a severe change and not only that but reliance on the GFS as primary guide not likely best solution. Plus all the guidance I've been looking at including ensembles has suggested to me the following as locally posted to a set of friends early this morning. 3-6" for SC and Poconos northward to OF and Boston area. Cannot use literal amounts at 72 hours. GFS hasn't had much for LI/NYC as I've been monitoring it..less than 1". When the Canadian (warmer model than EC/GFS) dumps it... then I question. 12z Canadian continues south of GFS. I'll await demise when Canadian and EC quit.
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OK... suggest consideration basing assessment on not only GFS but Canadian and EC and not instant.
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? from what and where.
