Jump to content

wdrag

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,077

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    I agree with albedoman post. I'll be checking my drains today, getting a pool pump out with a hose for extricating water Tuesday night if this comes to pass. I won't be surprised at a gravity wave that will modulate the heaviest rain zones but also assist wind damage. The idea, life will have to adjust Tuesday night Wednesday. Added a graphic of ensemble predictions of flooding up in our area. That's just the NWS flood forecast points. ALWAYS...this is predicated on the ensemble anticipated rainfall-snowmelt. That ensemble rainfall is 2.5". Note if another inch occurs next Friday night-Saturday the Passaic at Pone Brook would be in moderate or major flood through next weekend. Again, this is my own take on the modeling and not a NWS warning. If the rain is less, it's not as dire.
  2. wdrag
    So tomorrow morning we'll get the thread title updated to include the OBS for storm 2, add a two day CoCoRahS total and believe it or not, I think there will be some reports of snow and sleet in NJ, NYS/EPA and se NYS/CT midday Tuesday as the system begins. Not much more that I can add regarding rain/wind and its impacts.
  3. wdrag
    Request for comment was sent to MARFC. The ensembles have a model run time..lower right of each panel. End time I dont need because whatever is displayed has to satisfy. Ensembles are 10 day and each day is on the X axis. Looks like their river forecast officially are two day. This is where NWS is going on AHPS...new link below. Copy into browser and check. https://preview.water.noaa.gov/#@=-96.5556541,37.7326036,3.54063&b=topographic&g=obsFcst,1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!0!0!0!0!0,0.5,1!1!1!1!0,0,0&ab=0,0,#D94B4A,1,1,1,#cccccc,1,0,0,#B243B1,1,0,0,#98E09A,1&a=hydrologic,0.35&s=0,0,0.9,0.9&n=false,#72afe9,0.9,0,0.9,0,0.9&p=false,0.75,0,7,0,1,2023,11,24,0&d=0,0,1,1,1,1,1,1,#006EFF,1,#006EFF,1,#006EFF&q= Play with it. Cursor over. I've posted just this week regional snowfall forecast maps... several times. example.attached. Regional accum maps were posted this morning from LSR but something smooth, is only once in a while for a big big storm. We might see one tomorrow. However, I just dropped one in from NOHRSC. Later, Walt I've attached the flood watch just issued by Mt Holly.
  4. wdrag
    Wantage_ this location 8 =s High Point NJ. My final will be 13.4" over 24 hours. Still some S- here but I doubt if it adds anything noticeable, especially with compacting ongoing at a temp of 34.
  5. wdrag
    So the short of it for me, it doesn't work past day 3 using the slider bar, or if it does, you have to wait til a certain time of the day. I jnever use the slider bar. I'll send a note to the MARFC and see if they give me a reply. My recommendation: Please click on the river forecast point of interest and then use the scroll bar to the right to see all the info provided for that forecast point including ensemble river response, ensemble qpf (when it was imported for use) etc. Thanks, Walt
  6. wdrag
    Challenging! Thanks, Walt
  7. wdrag
    I have looked at guidance through the end of the month and so the 6" value I posted for top 10 January may end up 2" in error but thats what I came up with...a "chance" for a top 10 Jan water equivalent wise. If we dont exceed 2" in CP this next event on 1/9-10, then 6" for January seems less likely.
  8. wdrag
    Most sure what you';re looking at... just saw the lager Pine Brook in minor heading for moderate on 1/10 but nothing bout 1/13. Please send me what you're looking at that says 1/13 =thanks. I have to prep some pea soup so ill be away at times.
  9. wdrag
    May want to wait til tomorrow morning addition of D2.
  10. wdrag
    Since I have no emoji's...thanks... these are what we like to enjoy. Gotta have some fun. Thagts a heckuva long driveway!!! Sticks I suspect, just like up here near the Appalachian Trail.
  11. wdrag
    Tomorrow I'll probably update the headline to maybe add a tag??? and certainly make it clear that OBS for this next event just fall right into this thread. I'm probably gassed out for the day... and won't post much more til tomorrow morning.
  12. wdrag
    It is..ditto sleet (ice pellets) and I think hail too.
  13. wdrag
    CoCoRahS climate sites final for D1. I'll have a D1-2 combo tomorrow at this time. Click maps for clarity. This gives an idea... imperfect but quite a snow gradient in Sussex County NJ ranging from 6" southeast to over a foot northwest. My count at 10AM in Wantage is 13.1.
  14. wdrag
    Single model operational cycle guidance tends to be a little high, but I've attached the National BLEND OF MODFELS and is offering widespread 50-65 MPH gusts in the northeast USA Tuesday night, particularly the ridges even down to TN/NC and the coasts. Expecting 850 MB (~5000') winds in the 85-100 kt range for 3-6 hours across the northeast USA, I'd say we can't avoid at least scattered power outages, particularly NYS, and coastal NJ/LI. The good news = few leafed trees. Still with leftover snow covered branches I84 north and/or rain softened ground due to the top 5 December rainfall up here and possibly January excesses (CP top 10 would be 6"), suggests to me to be prepared and no crying after the fact. IFFFF and when the NWS issues watches for flooding and wind, be smart and get safely ready and prepare. Guidance is not perfect but am sure we'll construct a future outcome that will be of value. I just interpret what I think is increasingly better guidance from numerous government resources (models etc). The attribution for the improvement is a combination of research, higher resolution modeling both in the short and long term. Cellar flooding and river flooding coming up for quite a few folks as well as power outages (percentage of population may be small but the impact radiates out to family-first responders, DPW's etc). Most of the oncoming rain in 9 hours Tuesday night. Here's the blend of model wind gusts... yellow starts 60 MPH. Snapshots at 00z/10 which is 7PM EST Tuesday and 06z/10 which is 1AM EST Wednesday. These numbers are tempered down via the blend from individual global model predictions.
  15. wdrag
    https://satable.ncep.noaa.gov › naefs Ensemble Situational Awareness Table The NAEFS Ensemble: A 52-member ensemble consisting of 31 GEFS ensemble members and 21 Canadian (GEPS) members. The GEFS has 30 perturbed members and a control member. The GEPS has 20 perturbed members and a control member. Although the GEFS and GEPS are run at native resolutions of 25 and 39 km, respectively, the NAEFS is distributed on a 1x1 ... THI Grand ensemble forecast is I think input once/day and then presuming the RFC has the antecedent conditions correct, the river responds to the qpf. I'll show you with the attachments. The RFC forecast itself only out to Jan 10 while this Jan 6 12z ensemble is out to 10 days. Therefore its when the period ends that determines max river stage. If the ensemble is wrong, the river response is different. I think the ensembles are pretty good now, and it's a matter of forecaster input into the model that determines the river stages that make the curve. I use NAEFS in winter: GEFS seems conservative in winter. HEFS, I've no experience. I think it is wise to consider the NAEFS ensemble river forecast as a good first guess... The following should help for Pine Brook: I hope this is useful and you can verify Wednesday and beyond.
  16. wdrag
    This set of CPC hazard products posted on Jan 5 330PM was overlooked by myself since was embedded in storm 1. This CPC guidance has the two storms 1/13 and 16. If these get threaded, not yet sure how I'd like to do but probably separate. Depends how new total qpf, snowfall/wind looks for those two combined vs separate. Tides should be pretty high Sat morning the 13th so that will need monitoring.
  17. wdrag
    Finals via CoCoRaHs will post tomorrow morning around 1030A. Finals via the NWS local storm reports where they use social media as well as CoCoRaHs and folks like us, probably complete at 8P tonight.
  18. wdrag
    emojis limit??? again stopped from expressing emojis?
  19. wdrag
    Added prelim CoCoRaHs melted w.e. and snowfall. Will have more complete data at 10A. Click for clarity.
  20. wdrag
    The WPC moderate risk for flooding Tuesday-Wednesday is attached issued about 07z/7. Someone ping me if I missed this post earlier in the morning.
  21. wdrag
    Also... I am concerned about looking too far ahead beyond Jan 16. While I like the idea of pummel storms for late Jan-Feb.... we might be seeing the main deal now? Go ahead with model cues that shoot my thinking down... but I'm pretty sure what we're seeing in they Jan 6-16, 2024 time frame is not common.
  22. wdrag
    All with interest Jan 13... please hold off on buying a GFS intense warm wet windy midwest storm. Indications from the last 3 EPS cycles that a lead strong shrug wave comes out the 13th and could be a colder event, especially if it does what this one did (6th-7th) Clearly big differences at 5H between the EPS/GEFS for 12z/13. Take a look for yourselves via tropical tidbits. I am siding with the EPS. GEFS tends to get too wrapped up in single high amp troughs among other things, at least T+120(imo)
  23. wdrag
    ThNka for the fix on emoji's
  24. wdrag
    The future, besides additional snow today I78 in PA-NJ as well as LI northward. Attached is an ensemble based map (CMCE and GEFS) of resultant potential river problems by Wednesday. Purple is potential major, red potential moderate and the brown = minor. This guidance is accurate IF the 2-3" of rain and snowmelt materializes. We'll keep this thread going with storm two (9th-10th) instead of a separate OBS thread. The Tue - Wed, flood, heavy rainfall, wind damage reports will flow right into this thread will have integrity from start to finish. I dont plan to start any new threads beyond the 10th, until at least tomorrow or Tuesday. Have a day and NYC, enjoy the new snow later this morning...maybe it can accumulate on grass-cars?
  25. wdrag

    Hi!  Not sure if you're aware but at least two of us can't use emoji's early this Sunday morning Jan 7.  Is there any operator error on our part?

     

    Thank you,Walt

×
×
  • Create New...